The Brexit Thread (topical thread)

[Dom]

This is now a topical thread. Should have been marked thusly all along.

For other topics, please open another thread. Readers who select this thread want to read about Brexit, not fishing vessels from China or whatever.

[abaris]

This is now a topical thread. Should have been marked thusly all along.

For other topics, please open another thread. Readers who select this thread want to read about Brexit, not fishing vessels from China or whatever.

Thanks, I was just about recommending it. You beat me to it.

[Minimalist]

You got what you wished for.... and you deserve to get it good and hard.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/16/uk/majori...index.html

A majority of Britons aren't satisfied with how Brexit turned out

A majority of Britons are not satisfied with the post-Brexit trade agreement that Boris Johnson secured with the European Union, according to a survey that provides the first detailed insight into the nation's attitude towards the deal since it took effect.

The report, published by the British Foreign Policy Group, an independent think tank advocating for a stronger UK global presence, shows that under a quarter of those surveyed believe the Prime Minister's deal is "the best framework for our relationship with the EU moving forward."

[Aractus]

The Scott problem has only gotten worse since then.

[Minimalist]

Bojo seems to have a bit of a problem.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...le-to-hide

Johnson sold Britain a botched EU deal and no amount of spin or downright lies can conceal that it is falling apart

When Johnson and his rightwing Leave campaign pals claimed to have “got Brexit done” on 31 January last year, they failed to say the patchwork agreement they signed had more holes in it than a Cumbrian coal mine. Johnson did not admit he had fudged crucial issues such as Northern Ireland’s borders, and sold out Britain’s fisheries, in order to claim a bogus victory.

Yet truth will out. Day by bleak day, the epic damage caused by this execrable deception, this shameful Conservative con, becomes ever more evident. No amount of Michael Gove spin can hide the facts. No amount of distortion of official statistics can conceal the harm. Feeble claims by David Frost, Brexit booster-in-chief, that Covid and EU hostility are to blame will not wash. It’s clear where responsibility lies. And “lies” is the operative word.

In truth this clusterfuck became apparent far sooner than I expected.  It's almost as if Fuckface taught Bojo everything he knows about "negotiating."

[Minimalist]

Irish Imports from Great Britain Fall 65% as Brexit Takes Holdhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-18/irish-imports-from-great-britain-fall-65-as-brexit-takes-hold

Irish Imports from Great Britain Fall 65% as Brexit Takes Hold

Looks as if Australia is not picking up the slack!

[Aractus]

There's a good panel discussion here, sorry I thought I already posted it:



Note what the Irish DUP MP says. I never ONCE saw their perspective properly reported in all this time until now.

[Minimalist]

Heading for the bloody rubbish heap of history, it seems.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/202...uch-longer

The Brexit elite cannot hope to fool us for much longer

At times of national crisis, it pays to listen to the great playwrights. Writing in the New Statesman, David Hare makes the point that the real culprits in the Brexit fiasco are not the “red wall” victims of an austerity-induced discontent wrongly attributed to our membership of the EU. No: they are comfortably off members of an influential elite. Hare writes: “The people who were desperate to pull Britain away from its geographical moorings were as likely to be found in Knightsbridge as in Hartlepool. The leader of the UK Independence party, Nigel Farage, who put the fear of God into the Conservative party, was a stockbroker. His principal cheerleaders were press owners, paid-up members of an elite who all lived abroad: Rupert Murdoch, Lord Rothermere and the Barclay brothers.”

[Cavebear]

All hail England, the Father and Mother of Nations and Colonies. Without whom, surely no civilization would exist. And economically suicidal in the name of Nationalism.

[Minimalist]

Yeah.. things are not looking so good for the Brexiteers.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/12/business/...index.html

100 days later, Brexit isn't working and business wants it fixed

The UK government has not published an assessment of the economic fallout from Brexit, and continues to tout its purported benefits.
A government spokesperson told CNN Business that the Brexit deal "protects high quality jobs and investment right across the UK and ensures that businesses continue to trade effectively and sell to their customers in the European Union."
But a survey of over 1,000 UK business leaders conducted by EY and lobby group London First in late February found that three quarters have experienced disruption to their operating model following the end of the Brexit transition period, and half expect it to continue over the long term.
Trade with Europe has taken a major hit. Exports of goods to the European Union plummeted by over 41% in January compared to the same month the previous year, according to the Office for National Statistics. Exports bounced back in February, according to data published Tuesday, but were still 12.5% lower than 2020, when the pandemic was taking hold in Europe, and 22% down on 2019.
Many companies say that their ability to continue trading with the bloc is at risk due to issues arising from the trade agreement. Businesses that could previously get goods into Europe within hours of an order being placed are now facing lengthy delays and higher transportation costs due to new customs and food safety checks.

Sorry, Britain.  Serves you right.  You fell for a line of shit and now you are stuck with it.  I imagine there are lots of wry smiles in Brussels.

[Minimalist]

Gearing up for the Third Hundred Years War?


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-k-f...g-n1266480

LONDON — A flotilla of French fishing trawlers that had gathered in the English Channel as part of a long-simmering dispute with the United Kingdom over fishing rights vacated the area, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Thursday evening, bringing an apparent end to the naval standoff between the two countries.

The French fishermen had sailed to a port on the British Channel island of Jersey to protest post-Brexit fishing rights. Tensions escalated as France deployed two maritime patrol boats to the waters, its navy said, after the British Navy dispatched two of its own vessels to the area late Wednesday.

[Mr Greene]

No just business as usual with the French...
They'll be taking imports of ships in port and burning them on the dockside again in a few months.
Pretty much the same as previous years...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/j...many-spain
https://www.reuters.com/article/france-p...SL5N1TA4QQ
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world...74917.html
https://en.mercopress.com/2019/08/14/fre...d-mercosur
https://apnews.com/article/8bfc0cd5b74bb...c64af416d6

[Minimalist]

A couple of glasses of Beaujolais and they go wild!

[Aractus]

Australia and UK have agreed a FTA in-principle:



Fucking dozy Scotty sold out our farmers though, 15 fucking year implementation period for full quota-free, tariff-free red meat exports?! What a fucking joke. We have higher quality meat farmed more sustainably, we should be able to sell as much as we fucking well like just as we did before the British betrayal of 1972.

Also, the news here reported that French winemakers spend a lot campaigning for Remain in 2016 - can anyone say FOREIGN INTERFERENCE?! If China did that here (and they are our biggest trading partner) we would 100% view it as foreign interference. I'd forgotten about the foreign interference in the 2016 EU referendum. Fuck you France, the Brits have chosen Aussie plonk sell them something else.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Given the economies of scale, British herdsmen ought to be scared, quotas or no. Indeed, I imagine that's why they negotiated for and got a 15-year window. Big Aussie ranches have an economy of scale that the tiny British holdings can't touch, I's bet.

[Aractus]

Given the economies of scale, British herdsmen ought to be scared, quotas or no. Indeed, I imagine that's why they negotiated for and got a 15-year window. Big Aussie ranches have an economy of scale that the tiny British holdings can't touch, I's bet.

That's the UK's and the EU's fault for subsidising farming. Have you any idea how much greener UK land is? You don't need anywhere near the kind of space you need here to rear the same head of cattle or sheep due to much higher rainfall.

[Minimalist]

Not everyone is impressed.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po...65998.html

Brexit news - live: Australia trade deal will only deliver minimal benefit to UK economy, experts warn

Trade experts have said the UK’s trade deal with Australia will only deliver minimal economic benefit to the UK economy.
The GDP boost created by the pact would likely be closer to zero than the government’s 0.02 per cent estimate, according to David Henig, UK director of European Centre For International Political Economy.
Joe Spencer, partner at accountancy firm MHA MacIntyre Hudson, also called the agreement “unfavourable”. “UK farmers are increasingly being asked to offer protection for the environment, while the government is withdrawing support to them at the same time,” he said.

[Deesse23]

Jeez, i wonder how and why a trade deal with a country literally on the other side of the globe and with less than half the population wont have a ginormous influence on the UKs trade.

[Thumpalumpacus]

That's the UK's and the EU's fault for subsidising farming. Have you any idea how much greener UK land is? You don't need anywhere near the kind of space you need here to rear the same head of cattle or sheep due to much higher rainfall.

I get that irrigation is going to be a big expense in Australia, but by "economy of size" I was speaking more about the herd-size. I'm pretty sure the average Aussie herdsman holds many more head of grazing livestock than does his British counterpart. That can operate to reduce costs per head.

I don't have hard figures to hand and am too tired to go digging for them right now, but it's the concept behind large-scale livestock management. Perhaps they can raise more head per acre, but all the same, Australia has so many more acres that your [insert meat of choice here] is probably cheaper per pound/acre to produce.

I'm no expert on the topic, so if you have some figures I'll happily look at them. But I doubt Australia's meat exports are going to suffer much, given the hugely populous countries they trade with aside from the UK.

[Aractus]

I'm a lot happier today. The farming sector is happy with the plan, the opposition party (Labor) is happy as well. It's not as bad at all as I first thought, 15 years is a fucking long time - but really after 10 years we have all the access our cattle and sheep farmers are going to use anyway - it's not like we're ever going to supply 100% of the UK's red meat.

A massive win for Australia AND the UK really. This is a precedent, and as Boris mentioned in the video it's also an important step towards the UK's accession to the CPTPP.

Jeez, i wonder how and why a trade deal with a country literally on the other side of the globe and with less than half the population wont have a ginormous influence on the UKs trade.

The major influence will be the UK helping us to set the terms of global trade - and taking that power out of the hands of the likes of the EU and China. I.e. diminishing what they call the “Beijing effect” and the “Brussels effect”. It's incredibly important, and while it may not represent a massive amount of trade it gets us closer to that goal.

I get that irrigation is going to be a big expense in Australia, but by "economy of size" I was speaking more about the herd-size. I'm pretty sure the average Aussie herdsman holds many more head of grazing livestock than does his British counterpart. That can operate to reduce costs per head.

Most of the land isn't irrigated and isn't going to be, so that's a kind of poor comparison. But sure on the size - again that's not our fault, that's the UK's fault and the EU's fault for subsidising farming and encouraging unsustainable unprofitable farming practises. It's up to the UK now if they want to start reversing that, recombining farm lands that have been divided up into unprofitable plots that the UK government foolishly subsidises. You won't get any sympathy from Aussies for how you guys farm, we think it's completely stupid.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Most of the land isn't irrigated and isn't going to be, so that's a kind of poor comparison.

You were the one who brought up the rainfall differential, and I am agreeing with you, so I'm not sure what you're arguing against. The food for the animals must come from somewhere. If not nourished by rainfall, it must be either imported water (i.e. irrigation), or the food itself is brought in?

But sure on the size - again that's not our fault, that's the UK's fault and the EU's fault for subsidising farming and encouraging unsustainable unprofitable farming practises.

I wasn't assigning any fault, just pointing out that larger herds are typically watered or fed more economically than smaller ones.

We here in Texas raise a lot of cattle on dry land, but we rely upon rain, mostly, and indeed in drought the ranchers can see big livestock losses if they don't bring in water from outside.

It's up to the UK now if they want to start reversing that, recombining farm lands that have been divided up into unprofitable plots that the UK government foolishly subsidises. You won't get any sympathy from Aussies for how you guys farm, we think it's completely stupid.

Firstly, I'm not English, so that isn't always how we raise livestock here. What we did here in dry CenTex was breed cattle to grow on available water. Our ranches here can be much bigger than English plots.

I was actually pointing out that small English plots, though valuable to those ranchers and easy to maintain feed for the herd thanks to the rain, might still suffer from small scales of economy. I don't know much about English ranching and could well be wrong, but even if the feed grows for free under leaden English skies, the antibiotics and other additives, and also transportation costs to butchering stations, are probably going to be more expensive per pound of meat, due to English ranchers not having so much weight of money behind their endeavor.

I don't doubt that Australia has the same benefit of wide-open grazing, even if a bit poorer (like us in Texas) than English ranching. That's why I thought, and think, this deal will benefit Aussie ranchers moreso than the English.

As a last point: here in America, we draw a clear divide between farming and ranching. Farming is raising crops; ranching is the raising of livestock. Not a criticism, just a clarification so that the terms I'm using are understood. My Uncle Rip ranched some small acres in wet northeast TX with about 25 head of cattle, and my great-uncle Jimmy Don had about five hundred acres ranching goats up by Goldthwaite, in dry Hill Country. Jimmy Don made out far better.

[Aractus]

You were the one who brought up the rainfall differential, and I am agreeing with you, so I'm not sure what you're arguing against. The food for the animals must come from somewhere. If not nourished by rainfall, it must be either imported water (i.e. irrigation), or the food itself is brought in?

No.

They.are.reared.on.the.land. Rainfall or not.

Firstly, I'm not English, so that isn't always how we raise livestock here. What we did here in dry CenTex was breed cattle to grow on available water. Our ranches here can be much bigger than English plots.

Apologies, I did think you were a yank but wasn't sure. Regardless you yanks also subsidise farming...

As a last point: here in America, we draw a clear divide between farming and ranching. Farming is raising crops; ranching is the raising of livestock. Not a criticism, just a clarification so that the terms I'm using are understood. My Uncle Rip ranched some small acres in wet northeast TX with about 25 head of cattle, and my great-uncle Jimmy Don had about five hundred acres ranching goats up by Goldthwaite, in dry Hill Country. Jimmy Don made out far better.

No one in Australia uses the term "ranch". The equivalent term here would be "sheep station" or "cattle station".

[Thumpalumpacus]

No.

They.are.reared.on.the.land. Rainfall or not.

I.Know.This.

My point, since you so obviously missed it, is that the water has got to come from somewhere, because neither animal nor feed will grow without it. And that is going to raise the cost. Are you saying now that ranchers in Australia don't bring in outside water to raise their herds?

If they instead rely upon rainfall as well, why then should British rainfall make British meats more competitive? It's a pretty incoherent set of statements you've made over the last two days.

Apologies, I did think you were a yank but wasn't sure. Regardless you yanks also subsidise farming...

We subsidize farming. We might subsidize ranching, but I'm not sure.

No one in Australia uses the term "ranch". The equivalent term here would be "sheep station" or "cattle station".

That's nice. I just wanted to make sure the terminology is clear in my posts so you don't have a shitfit based on a misunderstanding.

[Mr Greene]

Britain's livestock farms have been over subsidised for generations and are massively overstocked.

Whilst exposure to actual market forces might be brutal for individual farmers the numbers do need to be reduced.

If the quality of their produce is as high as they claim they won't have anything to fear from Australian competition, if they can't produce as cheaply as a product that has to be shipped from the far side of the planet they have to work on their efficiency. Either they're running a business or they've got a hobby.

[pocaracas]

It's easy to make things cheaper.... just cheap out on the (important for some) basics



If British farmers were allowed to compete on equal footing, just the amount of water available in the UK would probably offset the economy of scale detail... and then, no one in the UK would import Australian meat.
But, as it stands, the British farmers are very concerned about this deal.