The Brexit Thread (topical thread)

[Aractus]

@Mathilda what do you have to say about the fact that Jeremy Corbyn presented trade talk documents that he called "NHS documents" that were (a.) marked as sensitive (which is typical for trade talks), and (b.) leaked on Reddit (c.) by suspected Russian hackers trying to interfere in UK election (note: that's according to the platform themselves)?

By the way, Jo Swinson's deluded claim she could be next PM isn't as bad as what Bill Shorten (former ALP leader) told a famous US politician in March 2018. After he asked for a photo he explained who he was saying "I'm going to be the next Prime Minister of Australia", more than a year before the election (18 May 2019), which he lost, the arrogant twat!

[abaris]

Trump told them the NHS (National Health Service) would be on the table in any future private trade deal between the US and UK after Brexit.

The NHS is one holy cow not even Thatcher dared to slaughter. I guess there would be massive riots, if someone dares to lay hands on the system.

[Cavebear]

Trump told them the NHS (National Health Service) would be on the table in any future private trade deal between the US and UK after Brexit.

The NHS is one holy cow not even Thatcher dared to slaughter. I guess there would be massive riots, if someone dares to lay hands on the system.

Well, since Trump always agrees with the last person he spoke (having no mind of his own) I sure hope he comes to visit me.

[Dānu]

Nick Boles, a former Conservative minister and member of parliament who quit his party over Brexit, has written of the “appalling choice” of 2019, the first election in modern history “in which you wouldn’t trust either of the prime ministerial candidates to mind your children for an hour, let alone run the country.”

(Washington Post)

[Aractus]

YouGov's MRP will be updated later today at 10PM UK time.

Anyway, there's going to be a Tory majority after December 12. This is the election May wanted to have in 2017. But she was an unpopular leader with an unpopular manifesto. Now the reverse is the case. Labour and Lib Dem have unpopular leaders, with unpopular manifestos. SNP in Scotland have held steady, and will pick up seats from Lib Dem and Labour because of lack of support for those parties, not because the Conservatives are doing badly in Scotland.

The Tory majority could end up being large enough that Johnson could just ignore the ERG's demands. To be honest though I don't think he would do any such thing, he has treated the Eurosceptics with the dignity and respect they wanted, but didn't get, from May. Johnson's approach has been far more collaborative than he gets credit for.

Parts of the UK media are still peddling the lie that this is an unpredictable election, what is clear is that Johnson will have a very clear mandate for his manifesto. The only thing that remains unknown is whether the Tories get a majority, or a bigger majority.

Some are claiming the public are suffering from brexhaustion. This is why they support the Tories/Johnson EU-divorce treaty, they say. This is simply not the case. The public have three clear choices:

1. Tory: Endorse the Johnson EU-divorce treaty "Brexit deal" to "get Brexit done".
2. Labour: A new deal to be negotiated, remaining in customs union and "fee movement" of people with EU; followed by a confirmatory referendum.
3. Lib Dem: Revoke Article 50, remain in EU.

Of course the UK general election is not just about Brexit, the party's manifestos are also key:

1. Tory: Pretty standard conservative manifesto.
2. Labour: Radical socialist manifesto.
3. Lib Dem: Pretty standard centre-left manifesto.

Thankfully for the UK, if not the world, the public are rejecting the radical socialist agenda that the Corbynists have put forward. Corbyn has appointed true believers in his revolution to his shadow cabinet, and this fool's endeavour for a 1940's socialist revolution is thankfully going nowhere.

Now a lot of Johnson critics have accused him of remaking the Tory party in the image of Nigel Farage: a party of Eurosceptics. He has done no such thing. What he has successfully done is reposition the party's policy on Brexit. Before, under May, the party was deeply divided on it. Johnson has made it clear their policy needs to be to deliver Brexit, one way or the other. It's a simple unified policy - Labour's is not.

I've mentioned many times how Labour and Lib Dem's Brexit policies are problematic. Labour opposed a "people's vote" in the last parliament, yet they've now made that their election promise. Corbyn would have done a lot better if he made his position "a Labour cabinet will create the framework for our deal, one that we can believe in, and I and the cabinet will endorse it with a people's vote". That would have been a much more palatable policy to the public compared with "we're going to negotiate a deal we don't believe in". Then he could say back-benchers will have the freedom to campaign for or against their deal in a people's vote. I don't know that would be a great policy, but it would have been a lot better than the policy he's brought to the election.

Johnson's attack "how can you negotiate a deal if you don't actually believe in it" is incredibly effective; because this is what happened with Theresa May (although he's been very careful not to draw attention to May's failing). She didn't believe in her deal, her party were divided over it. People can imagine the same thing happening with Labour because their policy isn't to create a deal that the parliament will endorse.

As I've mentioned before, Boris Johnson is not Britain’s Donald Trump; Jeremy Corbyn is. Corbyn is the one campaigning on populist "anti-establishment" ideals: "Take away Brexit, and Johnson is a run-of-the-mill conservative whose policy agenda, instincts, and world view, as opposed to his personality, verge on the dull; a member and defender of the establishment whose wish is to climb atop it, not rip it down. Corbyn is the opposite: a populist who believes in the inherent corruption of the established order, at home and abroad; a man who sees conspiracy and injustice everywhere. Only one of these descriptions comes close to the U.S. president." The key difference between Trump and Corbyn, is that Corbyn's been a politician in national parliament for 35 years, and the public are already aware of his dodgy political beliefs and agenda (for example he's both a terrorist sympathiser and an admirer of socialist dictators, he is also opposed to NATO). Corbyn's radical agenda to build a Venezuelan-style socialist utopia has no parallel in Johnson's manifesto, or indeed in his wider policy agenda. Corbyn flatly rejects free market enterprise, and criticises capitalism in every breath. He doesn't believe in Free Trade (that is in fact the standard from the hard-left^*).

The other key policy difference between the two men is in their democratic approach. Johnson believes in healing divisions and bringing people "together". On the surface that might just sound like electoral bluster, but it's an approach that values and respects the opinions and wishes of the public. Do what the public want is his basic political instinct. Julia Gillard was completely the opposite, she was on record saying that what the ALP needed to do was create policies and then convince the public to endorse those policies. That same approach failed to work for Bill Shorten. As has been mentioned before, Albo is taking the same approach as Johnson (but from opposition) which is listen to the public, find out what they want, and form policies around it. Corbyn of course doesn't care one iota what the public wants, he wants to push through his radical agenda, starting a UK socialist revolution. This is a policy formed by Corbynists; the true-blue believers of socialism. Corbyn looks down upon those who don't agree with him, he comes off as judgemental and elitist. Johnson comes off much more as friendly and down to earth, much like Albo, someone who doesn't belittle his critics.

So to return to my point, the public have been offered a clear choice, both with Brexit and with the party manifestos. Labour's radical agenda frightens people. Their Brexit policy worries leave voters. Lib Dem made cancelling Brexit their central policy and it has badly back-fired on them. This was entirely predictable - like I've mentioned before around 1/3rd of Lib Dem voters voted for or supported Leave (same as Labour). Really what's remarkable more than anything is that the Tories have somehow managed to keep most of their remain-voters; I suspect this is because most of them as Conservative voters do believe in the democratic principle of loser's consent, along with the fact they don't want socialism. It'll be interesting to see how Labour shifts post-election, whether the Corbynists will be purged and delegated to the back-benches to re-position the party back to the centre-left, or not. Given the huge number of new party members that presumably support socialism, that may not happen.

---

^* Their criticism that FTAs have been leveraged to disempower developing nations is correct, however they don't need to be used in that way and can be more mutually beneficial which is how the Australian-style FTA's work.

[Mathilda]

SNP in Scotland have held steady, and will pick up seats from Lib Dem and Labour because of lack of support for those parties, not because the Conservatives are doing badly in Scotland.

No, the Tories are hated up here. I mean they have since Thatcher but particularly now.

[Aractus]

Boris is still campaigning!



Yeah take that styrofoam - serves ya right.

[NorthernBen]

I've got everything crossed that we don't wake up on Friday with a Conservative majority, although looking at the predictions, that's where we are heading.

[Aractus]

I've got everything crossed that we don't wake up on Friday with a Conservative majority, although looking at the predictions, that's where we are heading.

Well it's either that, or what I reckon is more likely, a bigger majority. Antony Green was on a panel:





Watching now! Antony I and Australia you!

[pocaracas]

Ok, this news outlet is a bit biased, but it's still funny:

General election news – live: Boris Johnson escapes into fridge to avoid interview, as major poll showing ‘fast and late’ Labour surge leaves Tories alarmed

"
Boris Johnson appeared to duck questions about his failure to appear on Good Morning Britain by hiding in a fridge as he began the final day of general election campaign by loading milk in West Yorkshire.

It comes as YouGov’s MRP poll predicts the Conservatives on course for a 28-seat majority – down from the 68-seat victory predicted only two weeks ago. The margin of error means a hung parliament is now a possibility, with a ex-No 10 pollster warning of a “fast and late” Labour surge.

John McDonnell accused the Tory party of “gutter politics,” and said his colleague Jonathan Ashworth, Labour’s health spokesman, was “joshing” after he was secretly recorded questioning party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s suitability for office.
"

[Mathilda]

Boris is still campaigning!

All in all, you're just another brick in the wall.

[Aractus]

[Aractus]

Antony Green was on a panel:





Watching now! Antony  I and Australia you!

So Antony made many of the same points I made in the other thread regarding democracy. Compulsory voting tends to drive the major parties to the centre. It's very easy to vote in Australia, because you have to make it easy and accessible if you have compulsory voting. He said (56:47): "I would start [electoral reform] with local government, start with trying to find ways to increase the turnout by having more adventurous ways of taking votes". That was a great line, because he's talking about what to us Aussies are quite normal and accepted ways of taking votes, but the UK thinks our ideas are radical (like mobile polling booths, overseas polling stations, etc). My favourite quote was at the end when Antony answered a question from Jason Groves of Australian Liberals Abroad. Jason asked "I'm wondering what the panel thinks about having party leaders members elect leaders of parties has helped politics and engaged it more by encouraging more members, or has been bad because you have party leaders who aren't necessarily popular with the parliamentary party members?" Antony's answer (57:30) was direct: "I've got to say I think Jeremy Corbyn has done more damage to the campaigns around the world to have party members elect leaders. That's just what I'll say! It's gone off the boil in a lot of countries since."

[Cavebear]

Antony Green was on a panel:





Watching now! Antony  I and Australia you!

So Antony made many of the same points I made in the other thread regarding democracy. Compulsory voting tends to drive the major parties to the centre. It's very easy to vote in Australia, because you have to make it easy and accessible if you have compulsory voting. He said (56:47): "I would start [electoral reform] with local government, start with trying to find ways to increase the turnout by having more adventurous ways of taking votes". That was a great line, because he's talking about what to us Aussies are quite normal and accepted ways of taking votes, but the UK thinks our ideas are radical (like mobile polling booths, overseas polling stations, etc). My favourite quote was at the end when Antony answered a question from Jason Groves of Australian Liberals Abroad. Jason asked "I'm wondering what the panel thinks about having party leaders members elect leaders of parties has helped politics and engaged it more by encouraging more members, or has been bad because you have party leaders who aren't necessarily popular with the parliamentary party members?" Antony's answer (57:30) was direct: "I've got to say I think Jeremy Corbyn has done more damage to the campaigns around the world to have party members elect leaders. That's just what I'll say! It's gone off the boil in a lot of countries since."

Driving the major parties to the center is a good thing. When most people are trying to engage toward the center, it creates a solid Middle Class and that, in turn, leads to calmer politics and income equality. And I don't mean communism. Some inequality is good. It encourages commercial daring and success and invention. But I also don't mean it should result in more and more billionaires who pay no taxes.

[OakTree500]

Done a vote before work this morning! I'm guessing a hung parliament at best really, so we'll see how it goes.

[Aractus]

Driving the major parties to the center is a good thing.  When most people are trying to engage toward the center, it creates a solid Middle Class and that, in turn, leads to calmer politics and income equality.  And I don't mean communism.  Some inequality is good.  It encourages commercial daring and success and invention.  But I also don't mean it should result in more and more billionaires who pay no taxes.

Yep, that's what I've been saying.

[Aractus]

No, the Tories are hated up here. I mean they have since Thatcher but particularly now.

I'm not sure I completely agree with that. I think you're ignoring that there are two factions in Scotland: unionists and republicans, and the Tories are by far the strongest pro-unionist party up there. Lib Dem honestly to me look weak on it, and I think that's objectively the case, and same for Labour who's position is "we'll let them have another independence referendum just not in the first year or two"! The 2016 vote was meant to be "once in a lifetime".

WOW, I never imagined this:



If you still need a reason for compulsory voting - there it is!

[Mathilda]

We always have a drinking game on election night. Rules are:

Take a sip:

• When CGI is used to represent seats in parliament.
  
• When they cut away from live footage happening in your region to something they deem more interesting because it is closer to London.
  
• When Jeremy Vine jumps around a green screen room as if he is tripping out on acid.
  
• When they mention the exit poll in 1992 and John Major went on to win.
  
• When they all talk about the break-up of the UK and they all assume that it would be a bad thing.
  
• When a newly elected politician just repeats their party manifesto live on camera
  
• When a candidate who has just lost says live on camera says 'obviously it has been a disappointing night for us and the electorate has sent us a message and it is now our job to listen to that message'.
  
• For every independent candidate in a funny costume appearing at the vote count (put the kettle on for Boris Johnson's count)
  

Last but not least:

Down your drink for every Portillo moment and a major figure loses their seat in a shock result (i.e Jo Swinson)

[Mathilda]

No, the Tories are hated up here. I mean they have since Thatcher but particularly now.

I'm not sure I completely agree with that. I think you're ignoring that there are two factions in Scotland: unionists and republicans, and the Tories are by far the strongest pro-unionist party up there. Lib Dem honestly to me look weak on it, and I think that's objectively the case, and same for Labour who's position is "we'll let them have another independence referendum just not in the first year or two"! The 2016 vote was meant to be "once in a lifetime".

You know I live in Scotland don't you?

And who are these republicans you're talking about?

[Phaedrus]

You know I live in Scotland don't you?

[Aractus]

You know I live in Scotland don't you?

And who are these republicans you're talking about?

Yes of course! Well the SNP are the republican party, obviously.

My point was that in Scotland the Tories are the strongest pro-unionist party, and SNP are the strongest republican party. So I think your saying the Tories are universally hated is not entirely accurate. Although with that said, Scotland is the one part of GB where the Tories may loose a couple of seats (although Labour will almost certainly loose more).

[OakTree500]

Yes of course! Well the SNP are the republican party, obviously.

My point was that in Scotland the Tories are the strongest pro-unionist party, and SNP are the strongest republican party. So I think your saying the Tories are universally hated is not entirely accurate. Although with that said, Scotland is the one part of GB where the Tories may loose a couple of seats (although Labour will almost certainly loose more).

I mean, there are Tories in Scotland but I would say they are hated by a wide margin...

[Mathilda]

Scotland is the one part of GB where the Tories may loose a couple of seats (although Labour will almost certainly loose more).

The Tories may keep a couple of seats, both in the borders. Labour are likely to go back down to one seat again with just Ian Murray remaining.

Lib Dems are an unknown quantity. They are normally strong in the highlands yet they haven't been doing so well since showing themselves to be the new Tories. Yet they are the unionist party who want to remain in the EU.

The general perception up here is ... what the fuck is happening in Westminster? It seems alien. Regardless of what the population thinks of independence, politically Scotland is moving away from what's happening in England and the rest of the UK. The mainstream media are terrible at reporting on Scottish political trends because they are trapped in their London bubble. They see Scotland as another region and do not take into account that we have a different culture up here.

[Aractus]

I mean, there are Tories in Scotland but I would say they are hated by a wide margin...

Right but they have constituencies that elect them?

I think @Mathilda may have misunderstood my referring to SNP as "republicans" as having something to do with US, where I just mean they believe in a Scottish republic. I'm deeply republican myself so I sympathise, I hate everything to do with the UK royal family. I hate the Queen, I hate Prince Phillip, I hate Prince Charles, I hate the idea of aristocracy. Recently I heard about this other royal I had never heard of, and I hate him as well. What's his name? I forget, let me Google it... Prince Andrew. Their whole family tree is like a telegraph poll the inbred freaks.

[Aractus]

The Tories may keep a couple of seats, both in the borders. Labour are likely to go back down to one seat again with just Ian Murray remaining.

Lib Dems are an unknown quantity. They are normally strong in the highlands yet they haven't been doing so well since showing themselves to be the new Tories. Yet they are the unionist party who want to remain in the EU.

The general perception up here is ... what the fuck is happening in Westminster? It seems alien. Regardless of what the population thinks of independence, politically Scotland is moving away from what's happening in England and the rest of the UK. The mainstream media are terrible at reporting on Scottish political trends because they are trapped in their London bubble. They see Scotland as another region and do not take into account that we have a different culture up here.

Yeah I'd agree with almost everything you said except about Tory seats. Which we'll see in a few hours!