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Mafia Game #8 - Pitch Black Mafia
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(03-10-2019, 08:31 PM)LastPoet Wrote:(03-10-2019, 06:56 PM)Aliza Wrote: Yeah, I get the reasoning behind the mathy stuff. It's just that that's what makes me a theist. I see the patterns and it's really hard for me to let go of them. Especially when I don't yet see anything that stands out as scummy to overwrite my thought process. I was talking about the scum roll rates of certain players and my refusal to accept that they can continue to just keep rolling scum over and over. -Unless I see scummy behavior, in which case, I will not use my perceived logic of how many times someone is likely to roll scum again and again. And as you may recall, last game I refused to accept that Smercury was scum until all of a sudden I noticed something scummy. The same is true right now. I'm a little biased against assuming people who keep rolling scum, but I'll change my mind really quickly if someone does something to warrant my suspicion. (03-10-2019, 09:24 PM)Aliza Wrote: I was talking about the scum roll rates of certain players and my refusal to accept that they can continue to just keep rolling scum over and over. -Unless I see scummy behavior, in which case, I will not use my perceived logic of how many times someone is likely to roll scum again and again. So why wouldn't you continue with your line of investigation and voted for me above all else? Unvote Vote Aliza (03-10-2019, 09:37 PM)LastPoet Wrote:(03-10-2019, 09:24 PM)Aliza Wrote: I was talking about the scum roll rates of certain players and my refusal to accept that they can continue to just keep rolling scum over and over. -Unless I see scummy behavior, in which case, I will not use my perceived logic of how many times someone is likely to roll scum again and again. What do you mean? I don't have any investigation going yet. I'm just talking right now. You raised a good point about Evie not being very talkative, and Rev raised a good point about Assassin's random vote on someone who hasn't even logged in yet. That's really all I got. (03-10-2019, 06:42 PM)Revenant77x Wrote:(03-10-2019, 03:54 PM)Aliza Wrote:(03-10-2019, 03:25 PM)Revenant77x Wrote: Good morrow all. Saturday is a bad day for me to try and play Mafia as I am out most of the day and then run a D&D session in the evening. Today I should be able to contribute a bit more. Not much to go on yet, double whammy of 48 hour days and starting on the weekend is the likely culprit. I for one despise completely random votes on Day 1, especially when you announce that they are random. Removes all threat from said vote. I prefer to use a Day 1 vote as a cudgel to get someone talking, it's why I generally start with Aliza as she tends to give fairly good responses to early pressure. With this in mind let us turn our attention to our dear friend @Assassin who has been a quiet boy so far. Did you roll scum 2 games in a row? Interesting angle. Yes I have rolled scum 2 times in my last 2 games. I have a question for you Rev. At a specific point in time, say the period before I rolled scum for the first time, would you bet that I roll scum for the next two games I play as well? Because it sounds like you're saying rolling scum 3 times in 3 games is normal odds... For what it's worth, without reads the last person I'd vote for today is smerc simply because all games I've seen of her are scum. So mafia being a chance game, why would I put my day 1 bet that she's scum? She's the most likely (besides me imo) to be town. Anyway statistics talk aside, as that is debatable. Read wise I'll put Aliza and Aurora as town. They're playing very similar games to the ones I've played with them when they were town - probably town again. Hoping to see more content day 1.2 nothing striking me as particular scummy today. (03-10-2019, 08:36 PM)LastPoet Wrote:(03-10-2019, 06:42 PM)Revenant77x Wrote: As to the math, that is a gambler's fallacy since each game is rolled independent of each other and in small sample sizes like we have here you can have long runs. If we played 10,000 games of mafia with the same 10 people it would more or less level out to each player being scum 20% of the time but statistical normality like that only expresses with large sample sizes. Not a ton so far, lack of participation and no scum tells. Aliza is reading slight town or at least seems to be in her normal early game patterns. I am leaning on Assassin because I think I have a bead on his scum game but that could be a false positive on my side. So far most people are nul. (03-10-2019, 09:49 PM)Assassin Wrote: Interesting angle. You are no more or less likely to roll scum in this game than any other player. It is not weighted so the previous results have no influence on this game. It is unlikely that someone would roll scum 100 games in a row but with the system we use it is possible. I would agree about Aliza reading town, so far Aurora is very weak town/null read so far but that is normal day 1 with her. LastPoet seems to be doing his normal town game but one should never trust him. This post from you comes off more town than anything you did while scum last game so weak town lean on you so far. (03-10-2019, 03:54 PM)Aliza Wrote: I thought random voting was what you're supposed to do. It is. Over at Mafiascum (where all the best players play) they even call it the "Random Voting Stage" at the beginning. The pressure at the start is merely the threat of being lynched ... because town needs a lynch. But scum doesn't want to be lynched. So, in theory, a town player is less worried about having a vote on them at the start, for example. My Argument Against Free Will Wrote:(1) Ultimately, to control your actions you have to originate your original nature.
@Revenant77x yeah you did mention you're going to put more effort into the game on page two. So I think this vote on me is you trying to pressure/gather info. Town lean.
@EvieTheAvocado lol the random voting thing comes up every game. (I agree with you for what it's worth, the random vote is literally about the vote itself not the "you didnt make up a reason therefore your vote is null") but I think I'm done arguing about that! Off'l Vote Count
Day 1, Count 2 Aliza (2): Smercury, LastPoet Aroura (1): Evie Atothetheist (1): Assassin LastPoet (1): Aliza Assassin (1): Revenant (03-10-2019, 10:03 PM)EvieTheAvocado Wrote:(03-10-2019, 03:54 PM)Aliza Wrote: I thought random voting was what you're supposed to do. Who are you, and what have you done with the real Evie? (03-10-2019, 09:43 PM)Aliza Wrote: What do you mean? I don't have any investigation going yet. I'm just talking right now. You raised a good point about Evie not being very talkative, and Rev raised a good point about Assassin's random vote on someone who hasn't even logged in yet. You hurt my feelings by voting for me. Unvote
Well my vote threat on @LastPoet hasn't borne any fruit. I'll keep looking.
Unvote Hi Evie! How are you doing today? (03-10-2019, 10:15 PM)Assassin Wrote: @Revenant77x yeah you did mention you're going to put more effort into the game on page two. So I think this vote on me is you trying to pressure/gather info. Town lean. Is this a confession?
Hi all, just got all caught up on the thread. My reads so far in the game
Aliza is leaning town for me at the moment, nothing drastically different about her play so far. Rev and Assassin and Aliza all mostly taking back and forth about the odds of rolling scum. Not a lot to go on there. Null. Last Poet starting off much more active than the last couple of games, but when he was around in those he was quite active. Doing some scum hunting, nothing super suspicious. Slight town lean. Aurora’s play so far seems town as well. Evie being quiet so far would like to hear more from him, but nothing to go off of for a vote yet @EvieTheAvocado what are your thoughts? Nothing from Ato or Mooney yet so null. Unvote Gotta do some chores quick, but I’ll be around a bit tonight. "The Thinking Atheist forum" “The Thinking Atheist forum closed down" “TTA Forum”
PodPerson Evie is a bit odd. Short concise post, ultra careful, iirc he admitted that being his scum tell. Long winded confrontational Evie tends to break town more often than not.
[unvot] Vote EvieTheAvocado (03-10-2019, 10:36 PM)LastPoet Wrote:(03-10-2019, 10:15 PM)Assassin Wrote: @Revenant77x yeah you did mention you're going to put more effort into the game on page two. So I think this vote on me is you trying to pressure/gather info. Town lean. Of what?
Dang still quiet in here, no one is around when I am going to bed here soon, got work tomorrow and will try and check in on my lunch break before the phase change like I do.
"The Thinking Atheist forum" “The Thinking Atheist forum closed down" “TTA Forum” (03-10-2019, 10:26 PM)LastPoet Wrote:(03-10-2019, 10:03 PM)EvieTheAvocado Wrote:(03-10-2019, 03:54 PM)Aliza Wrote: I thought random voting was what you're supposed to do. There is only one Evie and I am He. What exactly did I say that made it not seem like me? Only thing different, really, is that Evie is super duper happy and spending a lot more RL time, nowadays. My Argument Against Free Will Wrote:(1) Ultimately, to control your actions you have to originate your original nature. (03-10-2019, 10:31 PM)Aliza Wrote: Hi Evie! How are you doing today? Physically ill, for over a month, but emotionally fantastic ... thanks for asking! My Argument Against Free Will Wrote:(1) Ultimately, to control your actions you have to originate your original nature. (03-10-2019, 10:44 PM)Smercury44 Wrote: Evie being quiet so far would like to hear more from him, but nothing to go off of for a vote yet @EvieTheAvocado what are your thoughts? Nothing to really go on, yet. We just need a lynch. We need to try and get someone lynched and see how they react. My Argument Against Free Will Wrote:(1) Ultimately, to control your actions you have to originate your original nature. (03-10-2019, 10:54 PM)Assassin Wrote:(03-10-2019, 10:36 PM)LastPoet Wrote:(03-10-2019, 10:15 PM)Assassin Wrote: @Revenant77x yeah you did mention you're going to put more effort into the game on page two. So I think this vote on me is you trying to pressure/gather info. Town lean. Of agreeing with me I think My Argument Against Free Will Wrote:(1) Ultimately, to control your actions you have to originate your original nature.
Oh, I'm all caught up. Bloody hell, lol.
Goodnight. My Argument Against Free Will Wrote:(1) Ultimately, to control your actions you have to originate your original nature.
I want someone to talk to.
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