Ukraine (Topical thread)

[Thumpalumpacus]

Washington is on edge as Russia's military buildup threatens a confrontation, with fears escalating following reports that U.S. intelligence shows Russian forces preparing to push into Ukraine.

Even as the nation’s capital goes quiet for the Thanksgiving holiday, the Biden administration must contend with reports that nearly 100,000 Russian troops are stationed at various locations on the country's western border, with no sign of those numbers waning.

Tensions have grown so high that the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine on Wednesday warned of “unusual Russian military activity” near Ukraine's eastern border and in the annexed peninsula of Crimea, telling U.S. citizens not to travel there.

[...]

A similar land grab, which would be the second in less than 10 years, has global implications and could trigger a massive military conflict as well as geopolitical strife between Russia and Western nations.

“Our concern is that Russia may make the serious mistake of attempting to rehash what it undertook back in 2014, when it amassed forces along the border, crossed into sovereign Ukrainian territory and did so claiming — falsely — that it was provoked,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said earlier this month.

[...]

Reports also emerged this week that the Biden administration is mulling its options to deter the Kremlin, including sending military advisers and new weapons to Kyiv.

Such an aid package could include helicopters, mortars, air defense systems such as stinger missiles and new Javelin anti-tank and anti-armor missiles.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/58309...on-on-edge

Sanctions don't appear to work with Putin. It's strange that he's not reading the tea-leaves well, in the sense that he's been messing with Ukraine for years out of fear of them joining up with the Western allies, while his actions themselves have the effect of pushing Ukraine to look to the West for aid.

[Dom]

Washington is on edge as Russia's military buildup threatens a confrontation, with fears escalating following reports that U.S. intelligence shows Russian forces preparing to push into Ukraine.

Even as the nation’s capital goes quiet for the Thanksgiving holiday, the Biden administration must contend with reports that nearly 100,000 Russian troops are stationed at various locations on the country's western border, with no sign of those numbers waning.

Tensions have grown so high that the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine on Wednesday warned of “unusual Russian military activity” near Ukraine's eastern border and in the annexed peninsula of Crimea, telling U.S. citizens not to travel there.

[...]

A similar land grab, which would be the second in less than 10 years, has global implications and could trigger a massive military conflict as well as geopolitical strife between Russia and Western nations.

“Our concern is that Russia may make the serious mistake of attempting to rehash what it undertook back in 2014, when it amassed forces along the border, crossed into sovereign Ukrainian territory and did so claiming — falsely — that it was provoked,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said earlier this month.

[...]

Reports also emerged this week that the Biden administration is mulling its options to deter the Kremlin, including sending military advisers and new weapons to Kyiv.  

Such an aid package could include helicopters, mortars, air defense systems such as stinger missiles and new Javelin anti-tank and anti-armor missiles.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/58309...on-on-edge

Sanctions don't appear to work with Putin. It's strange that he's not reading the tea-leaves well, in the sense that he's been messing with Ukraine for years out of fear of them joining up with the Western allies, while his actions themselves have the effect of pushing Ukraine to look to the West for aid.

He watched what happened with Hong Kong and feels safe. He also has no scruples. If he thinks he can pull it off, he will, regardless of cost. Cost is born by the Russian people, not him. And he feels very safe in his position there.

[Vera]

Ukraine (and Belarus) are pretty much screwed. They're physically too close to Russia and they are truly fucked. We've been historically really and unpleasantly enmeshed with Russia and I've little doubt that had we been geographically closer, we would have fared just as badly...

That stunted man in Rio actually said that countries like mine or Montenegro (might have been talking about that one) joining NATO is a provocation of Russia, because we're part of the Russian side of the territorial equation (the equation bit are my words but that was the gist of it). Because of course it's up to Russia (and the west) to decide, not up to the countries themselves.

It's almost like we're some sort of pawn in the games of the (Not So) Great Powers.

(and it's almost like that person is a joke )

[mordant]

I predict Russia will overrun Ukraine and the West will impotently bluster about it, but allow it.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I think we'll nd up supplying weapons and material ... to no avail.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Possibly related?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused a group of individuals of planning to stage a coup next week.

Zelensky warned of "internal challenges" facing Ukraine, beyond the growing tensions over Russia's buildup of forces near the Ukrainian border.

"We have challenges not only from the Russian Federation and possible escalation - we have big internal challenges," Zelenskiy said Friday, according to Reuters.

"I received information that a coup d'etat will take place in our country on Dec. 1-2," the Ukrainian president added.

Zelensky told reporters at a press conference that authorities obtained audio recordings from the alleged plotters, The Washington Post reported.

The individuals, which included Russians and Ukrainians, reportedly discussed their plans while mentioning Rinat Akhmetov, the richest man in the country, as a person that could help with the plot.

Akhmetov, a coal and steel tycoon, has had tensions with Zelensky and his administration, though Zelensky said the businessman was not involved in the actually alleged plotting, the Post reported.

https://thehill.com/policy/international...-next-week

I could see the plan being 1) organize a coup and then 2) invade Ukraine under the pretext of "stabilizing" it.

[Brian Shanahan]

Sanctions don't appear to work with Putin. It's strange that he's not reading the tea-leaves well, in the sense that he's been messing with Ukraine for years out of fear of them joining up with the Western allies, while his actions themselves have the effect of pushing Ukraine to look to the West for aid.

Putain's running a country rapidly going down the swanny and is no way near to being in a secure position at home (his increasingly draconian reactions to opposition is proof of that).  Hence he's going on an irredentist military adventure, just like Hitler did, and hoping the west will be stupid enough to not realise that he's a paper tiger.

[Brian Shanahan]

I predict Russia will overrun Ukraine and the West will impotently bluster about it, but allow it.

I don't think so.  As Syria showed a few years ago, any decent opposition will grind the Russian army into a dead halt very quickly.  What's not being advertised very much is that Russia is very weak economically and militarily.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Sanctions don't appear to work with Putin. It's strange that he's not reading the tea-leaves well, in the sense that he's been messing with Ukraine for years out of fear of them joining up with the Western allies, while his actions themselves have the effect of pushing Ukraine to look to the West for aid.

Putain's running a country rapidly going down the swanny and is no way near to being in a secure position at home (his increasingly draconian reactions to opposition is proof of that).  Hence he's going on an irredentist military adventure, just like Hitler did, and hoping the west will be stupid enough to not realise that he's a paper tiger.

I would have agreed with you in 2014, but I think this is more about taking advantage of a distracted and divided West.

[mordant]

I predict Russia will overrun Ukraine and the West will impotently bluster about it, but allow it.

I don't think so.  As Syria showed a few years ago, any decent opposition will grind the Russian army into a dead halt very quickly.  What's not being advertised very much is that Russia is very weak economically and militarily.

To whatever extent (directly or by proxy) the US and Russia (aka: the big two nuclear powers) are in any sort of conflict with each other, that is not a Good Thing, either.

It is even worse for prospects of stable world peace when you consider that the US is now increasingly busy provoking (or confronting, depending on your perspective) an increasingly bellicose China at the same time.

Between the US being busy finding a new international bogeyman, the pandemic situation, and the climate situation, things are looking incredibly rosy!

[Thumpalumpacus]

It is even worse for prospects of stable world peace when you consider that the US is now increasingly busy provoking (or confronting, depending on your perspective) an increasingly bellicose China at the same time.

When you look at the provocations China has been making in the sealanes off Southeast Asia, writing this off as American bellicosity seems like a very one-sided view of things. But that's another thread; this one is about Ukraine.

[Minimalist]

I could see the plan being 1) organize a coup and then 2) invade Ukraine under the pretext of "stabilizing" it.

Wasn't that the plan they used in Afghanistan so many years ago, Thump?

Are you suggesting that the Russkis don't learn, either?

[Thumpalumpacus]

I could see the plan being 1) organize a coup and then 2) invade Ukraine under the pretext of "stabilizing" it.

Wasn't that the plan they used in Afghanistan so many years ago, Thump?

Are you suggesting that the Russkis don't learn, either?

No, I'm not suggesting that. They may, however, see enough differences in the two separate examples to think that the stratagem could work this time.

This sort of thing has been in the playbook of many nations for quite a while. I think they understand that it may work under the right circumstances, at least so far as quelling outside intervention is concerned.

Do you think it's a coincidence that a coup has perhaps been uncovered at the same time as a military buildup has been observed?

[mordant]

It is even worse for prospects of stable world peace when you consider that the US is now increasingly busy provoking (or confronting, depending on your perspective) an increasingly bellicose China at the same time.

When you look at the provocations China has been making in the sealanes off Southeast Asia, writing this off as American bellicosity seems like a very one-sided view of things. But that's another thread; this one is about Ukraine.

It was China I characterized as bellicose.

I do believe that they need to be confronted for that bellicosity, but I worry about escalation, and us losing sight of our objectives (or having covert objectives) in that regard.

But yes, a topic for another crisis day.

[Thumpalumpacus]

It is even worse for prospects of stable world peace when you consider that the US is now increasingly busy provoking (or confronting, depending on your perspective) an increasingly bellicose China at the same time.

When you look at the provocations China has been making in the sealanes off Southeast Asia, writing this off as American bellicosity seems like a very one-sided view of things. But that's another thread; this one is about Ukraine.

It was China I characterized as bellicose.

I do believe that they need to be confronted for that bellicosity, but I worry about escalation, and us losing sight of our objectives (or having covert objectives) in that regard.

But yes, a topic for another crisis day.

Blaming America for provoking Chinese bellicosity doesn't wash. I'll start a thread about it if you'd like to discuss i in detail.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Back on topic:

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned Friday that Russia would face ramifications if attempted to invade Ukraine, amid a worrying buildup of forces along the border between the two countries.

"If Russia uses force against Ukraine that will have costs, that would have consequences," Stoltenberg said, per The Associated Press.

"This is the second time this year that Russia has amassed a large and unusual concentration of forces in the region," he added.

"This military buildup is unprovoked and unexplained. It raises tensions and it risks miscalculations," Stoltenberg said, noting that "there is no certainty about the intentions of Russia" but recognizing "this is a military buildup by a country that has invaded Ukraine before."

NATO is set to have a meeting with foreign ministers from its 30 member nations in Latvia from Nov. 30 to Dec. 1, with Russia's recent actions at the top of the agenda.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday said he had received intelligence indicating that a coup was set to take place in his country.

The Russian government has denied any involvement.

https://thehill.com/policy/international...-incursion

NATO countries will have to find a way to stay warm this winter without (or with much less) Russian natural gas, if this posturing keeps up.

[Minimalist]

I could see the plan being 1) organize a coup and then 2) invade Ukraine under the pretext of "stabilizing" it.

Wasn't that the plan they used in Afghanistan so many years ago, Thump?

Are you suggesting that the Russkis don't learn, either?

No, I'm not suggesting that. They may, however, see enough differences in the two separate examples to think that the stratagem could work this time.

This sort of thing has been in the playbook of many nations for quite a while. I think they understand that it may work under the right circumstances, at least so far as quelling outside intervention is concerned.

Do you think it's a coincidence that a coup has perhaps been uncovered at the same time as a military buildup has been observed?

I don't know.  Russia, historically, has been about as subtle as a bull in a china shop.  

They could be linked or it could be coincidence because who knows how many disparate groups there are? 

But one fact cannot be evaded.  It's November 26th and Russian winters are hard on armies.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I don't know.  Russia, historically, has been about as subtle as a bull in a china shop.  

They could be linked or it could be coincidence because who knows how many disparate groups there are? 

But one fact cannot be evaded.  It's November 26th and Russian winters are hard on armies.

Well-put and no argument with any point here.

[Mr Greene]

Putin is running the Russian economy into the ground and sees the Black Sea ports as way out.
That's also what's pushing the clash with Turkey.
When it comes they'll claim 'provocation' make a quick grab at the coastline and then negotiate a ceasefire.
Similar to what he did in Georgia.

[Thumpalumpacus]

U.S. intelligence found that Russia is planning a military offensive against Ukraine involving 175,000 troops near the border as early as next year, according to an intelligence document obtained by The Washington Post.

U.S. officials also spoke with the newspaper on the matter.

The document obtained by the Post shows Russia is planning to deploy 175,000 troops to the Ukraine border by early 2022. The document also contains satellite photos of the military buildup.

The Post reported that Russia has “newly arrived” tanks and artillery, with 50 battlefield tactical groups deployed. The buildup is currently happening in four locations on the border, according to the document.

“The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s snap exercise near Ukraine’s borders,” an administration official told the outlet. “The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.”

An official who spoke on the condition of anonymity confirmed to The Associated Press the number of troops, adding that almost half of the 175,000 are already deployed along various points on the Russia-Ukraine border.

The U.S. estimates Russia has roughly 70,000 troops on the ground currently.

A Ukrainian intelligence chief told the Military Times in November that Russia was planning an attack on the country by late January.

Along with the military buildup, the administration official said Russia has started a propaganda campaign against Ukraine and NATO.

“Additionally, in the past month, our information indicates Russian influence proxies and media outlets have started to increase content denigrating Ukraine and NATO, in part to pin the blame for a potential Russian military escalation on Ukraine,” the administration official said.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/58433...-troops-as

[Dom]

It's one of several explosive situations we have in the world now. Very dangerous. Divisions within and divisions outside. Reminds me of the curse: "may you live in interesting times".

[Thumpalumpacus]

MOSCOW, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Russian mercenaries have deployed to separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine in recent weeks to bolster defences against Ukrainian government forces as tensions between Moscow and the West rise, four sources have told Reuters.

In recent weeks, Russia has moved tens of thousands of regular troops to staging posts closer to Ukraine and followed up by demanding urgent security guarantees from the West designed, Moscow says, to prevent Ukraine and other neighbouring countries being used as a base to attack it.

[...]

Of four sources, three described their offers from mercenary recruiters to go to Donbass. They said the recruiters did not disclose who they represented. All four sources declined to be named, citing fears for their safety.

[...]

The Kremlin says it has nothing to do with private Russian military contractors whose operatives it describes as volunteers with no connection to the state.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: "It's the first we've heard of this and we don't know how reliable these assertions are."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rus...021-12-23/

Of course the Russians know nothing about this. Nossink!

[jerry mcmasters]

How long can Russia afford a leaning-forward deployment such as they have? Are they going to shit or get off the pot? (Disclaimer: I hope they back down)

[Thumpalumpacus]

How long can Russia afford a leaning-forward deployment such as they have?  Are they going to shit or get off the pot? (Disclaimer:  I hope they back down)

That's a good question. Some sources I've read report that a full invasion would require more than 70% of their ground forces. I don't know the proportion of their army deployed at this moment, so figuring out how long they can maintain this force-posture isn't anything I can say. I imagine the boffins in the Pentagon, with access to satellite imagery, probably have a pretty good idea of when the go-no go point is on the decision to invade or not.

[Antonio]

The US weapons industry will have something to say about all this