Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)

[Paleophyte]

It's difficult to determine growth rate from testing simply identifying existing cases.
Most of Eaurope (though not all), are doing tests at a far greater rate than we are here int he US.  It's likely European countries have upwards of 10 times the cases identified.  It's likely the US has 100 times the cases, therefore as it gets more serious and tests are finally released, the numbers will go up more rapidly.

At least that's one possiblity.  The other is that it's actually spreading faster here.  It's really hard to tell.

It's almost certainly both and that's bad and worse.

The growth rate in the US is using an exponent that is 50% larger than Canada or Italy. In Canada and Italy the virus has spread at a rate of approximately e^0.2t where e is Euler's natural growth constant and t is time. In the US, the virus is spreading at a rate of roughly e^0.3t!

More simply, the increase that is seen in Italy and Canada every 3 days will be achieved in the US in a mere 2 days.

Now, those numbers may well be wrong because the US has had crap testing. It almost certainly is. What we know is that it isn't smaller. Assuming that there are a lot more undiagnosed cases in the US just means that it's more fucked than it already seems to be.

Disclaimer: I am not an epidemiologist. I hunt and kill rocks for a living and my numbers are based on very superficial analyses of what is likely flawed data.

That said, the calculations that I did Friday night have underestimated the actual results from Saturday and Sunday. That is terrifying because at that rate the US will have half a million cases by the end of March.

I am as well not a specialist. But why do i think the increasing numbers are not connected to better testing in the US?
Quite easily: Because the numbers (seem to) show an exponential increase still just with an different exponent, and imho it would be a rare coincidence that an increased testing would also be in a exponential manner. Imho the increased testing just starts to show the real gravity of the situation.

Agreed:

First, you can't test what isn't there. If you're finding more positives with better testing that's because the testing is better and more people are infected. If you don't have the higher infection rate then better testing doesn't find more virus.

Second, any improvement in testing should show up as a spike in the number of cases. The new testing comes in, you find a massive number of infections that you didn't know about, and then it levels off closer to the true value. You don't see that in the data from the US. It's straight as an arrow right through the entire month of March. That's no surprise because the testing is still rubbish.

The silver lining i see, if there is any: The spread is still strongly focused on NY and west coast, with heavy population density. Soon these areas will get "saturated" with infections slowing down the rate, and in the less densely populated midwest ect, it will be slower anyway. Yet, this will not be enough, your admin needs to act, and i wouldnt count on D.C. All we canhope for is that governors and individual states arent as oblivious to the obviou sdeaht toll that you are going to face.

I fear that your silver lining is actually arsenic. The populations in those areas are enormous. You won't even begin to approach saturation until tens of millions are infected.

[Phaedrus]

People on social media are calling it The Rona.

I think that's cute. Anthropomorphizing the virus.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

[Dom]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

8h

WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!

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WTF is that supposed to mean?

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

8h

WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


WTF is that supposed to mean?

It means he's put off doing anything for another two weeks.

[Deesse23]

The supreme leader of Iran rejected the US offer to help Iran, and referred to accusations against the US mainly promoted by China, Russia, and Iran:

"US officials have said many times that we are ready to help you in terms of treatment and medicine; they have repeated that you only need to ask us to help you with medication and treatment.

This is very odd. First, you have a shortage; the news that comes from the US, that is what the Americans themselves are saying, the mayor of that city, the head of that state's hospital, they are expressly saying that they are in dire straits. If you have something, spend it yourself. 

Secondly, you Americans are accused of producing the virus; I don't know the truth about this accusation, but when there is such a charge against you, who in their right mind would trust you to bring them medications? Your medications can be a cause of further spreading the disease, you have no credit, and you are not trusted."

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman and the Russian ministry of defense accused the US concerning the virus.

Trump has no clue, which is why he's offering you supplies he hasn't got.

The US is about to get the shit kicked out of it by this virus so I have a hard time with anybody suggesting that they released it. They've lost a whole lot of money, are about to lose a whole lot of lives, and Trump will lose the Presidency if he's lucky enough to live that long. Hard to see how any of that benefits the US. You're going to see a lot of conspiracy rubbish before this is over. There are certainly enough idiots here trying to blame the Chinese, the Russians, and the Muslims.

The jews, dont forget the damn jews!

[Deesse23]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

8h

WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!

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WTF is that supposed to mean?

Martial law probably. Not because it was his idea, ihmo he is still to stupid, no some advisors gave him a 1 pager with two options, like as with Soleimani.

[SYZ]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

8h

WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!


WTF is that supposed to mean?

Trump is convinced in his own mind that the COVID-19 pandemic is not as bad as it seems to less intelligent
people than himself—an expert in virology—and that it'll all be forgotten in a couple of months, or even as
early as FIFTEEN days! He also sees it as a typical media beat-up, and that experts in the science fields don't
really know what they're talking about when compared to his inherent knowledge of diseases.

US citizens can put their absolute trust in his decisions, as he's way ahead of the field, and we should all just
relax a bit.

—In actuality, Trump has not the faintest idea about this pandemic and its inevitable repercussions on people in
the US and globally.  He's living totally inside that tiny skull of his, insulated from the real world, guided only by
his experience (?) as a games show host, and propped up with his daddy Fred's $300 million fortune.  He just
cannot grasp the simple fact that when this is all over, he'll be out of a job, indicted for multiple crimes, destitute,
and probably in jail.

And won't we all be laughing then.     

[adey67]

The supreme leader of Iran rejected the US offer to help Iran, and referred to accusations against the US mainly promoted by China, Russia, and Iran:

"US officials have said many times that we are ready to help you in terms of treatment and medicine; they have repeated that you only need to ask us to help you with medication and treatment.

This is very odd. First, you have a shortage; the news that comes from the US, that is what the Americans themselves are saying, the mayor of that city, the head of that state's hospital, they are expressly saying that they are in dire straits. If you have something, spend it yourself. 

Secondly, you Americans are accused of producing the virus; I don't know the truth about this accusation, but when there is such a charge against you, who in their right mind would trust you to bring them medications? Your medications can be a cause of further spreading the disease, you have no credit, and you are not trusted."

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman and the Russian ministry of defense accused the US concerning the virus.

Trump has no clue, which is why he's offering you supplies he hasn't got.

The US is about to get the shit kicked out of it by this virus so I have a hard time with anybody suggesting that they released it. They've lost a whole lot of money, are about to lose a whole lot of lives, and Trump will lose the Presidency if he's lucky enough to live that long. Hard to see how any of that benefits the US. You're going to see a lot of conspiracy rubbish before this is over. There are certainly enough idiots here trying to blame the Chinese, the Russians, and the Muslims.

Yes I don't buy it. Tbh I think it's one of a number of varients of the same sad conspiracy theory just like how it supposedly came from a bio weapons lab in Wuhan besides scientists have mapped its sequences and say the virus appears to be entirely natural with no evidence of artificial manipulation. Sadly I can't remember where I read that so I can't give a source but I believe the scientists over conspiracy theorists any day. It's a zoonotic virus that came out of China  its not the first and I doubt it will be the last certainly not so long as the practice of pig/duck agriculture and exotic animal consumption continues.

[Dom]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

8h

WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


WTF is that supposed to mean?

Going by what he is re-tweeting now, he means that the quarantine will end in 15 days and only the vulnerable will be protected.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Well, even the dead and dying have to admit it's just another Internet Phenom and something new will be along soon, like bubonic plague.

[Alan V]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTF is that supposed to mean?

It means Trump thinks the damage to the economy could be worse than letting a million or so people die, so he would like to ease up on restrictions.

[Dom]

Fed to Buy as Much Government Debt as Needed to Aid Economy


In its boldest effort to protect the U.S. economy from the coronavirus, the Federal Reserve says it will buy as much government debt as it deems necessary and will also begin lending to small and large businesses and local governments to help them weather the crisis.

The Fed's announcement Monday removes any dollar limits from its plans to support the flow of credit through an economy that has been ravaged by the viral outbreak. The central bank's all-out effort has now gone beyond even the extraordinary drive it made to rescue the economy from the 2008 financial crisis.

"The coronavirus pandemic is causing tremendous hardship across the United States and around the world," the Fed said in a statement. “Our nation’s first priority is to care for those afflicted and to limit the further spread of the virus. While great uncertainty remains, it has become clear that our economy will face severe disruptions. Aggressive efforts must be taken across the public and private sectors to limit the losses to jobs and incomes and to promote a swift recovery once the disruptions abate.”

Financial markets sharply reversed themselves after the announcement. Dow Jones futures swung more than 1,000 points from about 500 down to a rise of roughly 500. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond also fell, a sign that more investors are willing to purchase the securities.

https://www.usnews.com/news/business/art...ses-cities

[mordant]

Couple are furious when they can't buy 23 MD cases

What's the deal with Mountain Dew?  You can't wipe your ass with it.  They should let them buy it.

Grocers shouldn't allow bulk purchases because they're not set up for it and it's not fair to other customers when supply chains are wobbly. Also, it is highly likely to involve scalping / price gouging activities.

On the other hand I concede, even in the South, you'd think most customers would not care if one particular brand of soft drink is out of stock -- and most would not pay 5x the normal price to keep it on hand. Most indeed couldn't afford to if they wanted to.

[mordant]

The supreme leader of Iran rejected the US offer to help Iran, and referred to accusations against the US mainly promoted by China, Russia, and Iran:

"US officials have said many times that we are ready to help you in terms of treatment and medicine; they have repeated that you only need to ask us to help you with medication and treatment.

This is very odd. First, you have a shortage; the news that comes from the US, that is what the Americans themselves are saying, the mayor of that city, the head of that state's hospital, they are expressly saying that they are in dire straits. If you have something, spend it yourself. 

Secondly, you Americans are accused of producing the virus; I don't know the truth about this accusation, but when there is such a charge against you, who in their right mind would trust you to bring them medications? Your medications can be a cause of further spreading the disease, you have no credit, and you are not trusted."

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman and the Russian ministry of defense accused the US concerning the virus.

Because the claims are likely as absurd as the conspiracy theories from others that China produced the virus in some biowarfare lab of theirs.

Every time there is a new infectious agent you get these conspiracy theories. It has happened on a much smaller scale over the years. For example, Lyme Disease, a debilitating illness that was first identified near Lyme, Connecticut, US, has had people claiming it is a germ warfare experiment either accidentally or deliberately released to the public. Mycoplasma Hominis, a much less well-known cell wall deficient bacteria that has a possible role in certain neuroimmune illnesses, has also had these claims made without evidence.

I agree however given the US sanctions against Iran and Trump's bad-faith dismantling of the nuclear agreement, that this "offer" of "help" probably is not a good faith offer and is more in the line of trolling. Also I agree that we have little aid to offer to anyone else at this point other than to drop sanctions for the duration, which in my view would be the humane thing to do. However that is a minority view here. Bernie Sanders and other progressive leaders are the only ones pushing for dropping sanctions on humanitarian grounds, to my knowledge.

[mordant]

The supreme leader of Iran rejected the US offer to help Iran, and referred to accusations against the US mainly promoted by China, Russia, and Iran:

"US officials have said many times that we are ready to help you in terms of treatment and medicine; they have repeated that you only need to ask us to help you with medication and treatment.

This is very odd. First, you have a shortage; the news that comes from the US, that is what the Americans themselves are saying, the mayor of that city, the head of that state's hospital, they are expressly saying that they are in dire straits. If you have something, spend it yourself. 

Secondly, you Americans are accused of producing the virus; I don't know the truth about this accusation, but when there is such a charge against you, who in their right mind would trust you to bring them medications? Your medications can be a cause of further spreading the disease, you have no credit, and you are not trusted."

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman and the Russian ministry of defense accused the US concerning the virus.

Trump has no clue, which is why he's offering you supplies he hasn't got.

The US is about to get the shit kicked out of it by this virus so I have a hard time with anybody suggesting that they released it. They've lost a whole lot of money, are about to lose a whole lot of lives, and Trump will lose the Presidency if he's lucky enough to live that long. Hard to see how any of that benefits the US. You're going to see a lot of conspiracy rubbish before this is over. There are certainly enough idiots here trying to blame the Chinese, the Russians, and the Muslims.

If one wanted to float a conspiracy theory, it's more plausible in my view that Trump wants a disaster to grab more power, and the more economical explanation for that is he's simply taking advantage of a situation not of his direct making. Disasters and public fear are helpful to authoritarian rulers.

That is more plausible than some theory about Covid-19 being made in a lab and purposely released, by us or by anyone else. It is also supported by news reports that the Department of Justice is lobbying congress for the power to suspend civil rights in a public emergency. That is unlikely to be granted while Democrats control of even just the House, but it certainly supports the notion that the government, or at least factions of it, are seeking to gain power from the crisis. Attorney General Barr has always struck me as seeking power for himself and he just finds Trump to be a useful fool to that end.

The more logical explanation for the origin of Covid-19 is that as more and more genetic material is exposed to the environment by the melting of permafrost and the denuding of the Amazon and other natural areas, you are going to have more new (to us, and to this time) viral agents gaining purchase. There's no particular reason to think Covid-19 will be the last of these, either. Sadly, people will not likely connect those dots or even see it as a sober warning sign of needed policy change on climate.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Actually, the area infested with neo-nazis, aka eastern Germany, is least infected........by corona i mean.  

It makes sense that the virus should be more widespread in the more-cosmopolitan parts of a country. We're seeing that here in America right now, too.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Am I a horrible person...

Harvey Weinstein tests positive for COVID-19

...to be rooting for the virus?

I hope he lives to serve out the fullness of his sentence.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

8h

WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!

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WTF is that supposed to mean?

Translation: The business of America is business. If you think a measly virus will stop that, you're wrong.

[Minimalist]

If one wanted to float a conspiracy theory, it's more plausible in my view that Trump wants a disaster to grab more power, and the more economical explanation for that is he's simply taking advantage of a situation not of his direct making. Disasters and public fear are helpful to authoritarian rulers.

Or, he could just be in over his head.  Given his handling of other situations things are always too complicated for him.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Martial law probably. Not because it was his idea, ihmo he is still to stupid, no some advisors gave him a 1 pager with two options, like as with Soleimani.

Martial law will kill the economy as surely as the virus. Trump has painted himself into a corner regarding his ability to lead the response to this pandemic. No matter what they decide, there will be enormous economic dislocations that will haunt him in November.

[Minimalist]

What is the worst of all possible worlds?  Not having the nerve to create a plan and stick to it.

Shit.  Meet fan.  Trumpolini is losing it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...nomic-rout

Trump Weighs Easing Stay-at-Home Advice to Curb Economic Rout

“WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!” Trump tweeted late Sunday.

The president started talking about how to get people back to work around Thursday, two of the people said, only three days after he helped roll out a 15-day plan from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to stem the rise of cases by encouraging most people to stay at home. That campaign would end about March 31.

[Thumpalumpacus]

What is the worst of all possible worlds?  Not having the nerve to create a plan and stick to it.

Shit.  Meet fan.  Trumpolini is losing it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...nomic-rout

Trump Weighs Easing Stay-at-Home Advice to Curb Economic Rout

“WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!” Trump tweeted late Sunday.

The president started talking about how to get people back to work around Thursday, two of the people said, only three days after he helped roll out a 15-day plan from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to stem the rise of cases by encouraging most people to stay at home. That campaign would end about March 31.

The British have a beautiful phrase for it: "falling between two stools."

In the military, we had the aphorism, order, counterorder, disorder.

It's a basic of Leadership 101: decisiveness is vital. Dithering is deadly.

[Dancefortwo]

A little update on my efforts to sew medical masks.  It's been impossible to find the blue non woven material that we're all familiar with. 



The main source for the blue non woven fabric is China and that ain't happening. They're using the masks for their own population. 

But there is a non woven material that is very similar to that.  It's interfacing that is sewn into garments and it comes in various weights.  I ordered four bolts of the mid weight interfacing from Overstock.    



The pattern calls for three layers and then it's pleated up and the ends are finished off and a flat bendable wire is inserted into a small channel in the nose area.  My problem is finding that bendable flat wire.   Some people making these have been using pipe cleaners but that doesn't sound sanitary to me.   

I'm open for suggestions.  Anyone know of a flat aluminum bendable wire,   something at the hardware store that might be usable?   I want to get started on this by Thursday and try to make as many as I can.

[Dom]

A little update on my efforts to sew medical masks.  It's been impossible to find the blue non woven material that we're all familiar with. 



The main source for the blue non woven fabric is China and that ain't happening. They're using the masks for their own population. 

But there is a non woven material that is very similar to that.  It's interfacing that is sewn into garments and it comes in various weights.  I ordered four bolts of the mid weight interfacing from Overstock.    



The pattern calls for three layers and then it's pleated up and the ends are finished off and a flat bendable wire is inserted into a small channel in the nose area.  My problem is finding that bendable flat wire.   Some people making these have been using pipe cleaners but that doesn't sound sanitary to me.   

I'm open for suggestions.  Anyone know of a flat aluminum bendable wire,   something at the hardware store that might be usable?   I want to get started on this by Thursday and try to make as many as I can.

Ask your local ACE store. They tend to know stuff like that. I would imagine they have something for that.

And - thank you for doing this!