Mafia Game #8 - Pitch Black Mafia

[LastPoet]

Because tomorrow s work day.

[Aliza]

Yeah, I get the reasoning behind the mathy stuff. It's just that that's what makes me a theist. I see the patterns and it's really hard for me to let go of them. Especially when I don't yet see anything that stands out as scummy to overwrite my thought process.

Patterns? On day 1?

I was talking about the scum roll rates of certain players and my refusal to accept that they can continue to just keep rolling scum over and over. -Unless I see scummy behavior, in which case, I will not use my perceived logic of how many times someone is likely to roll scum again and again.

And as you may recall, last game I refused to accept that Smercury was scum until all of a sudden I noticed something scummy. The same is true right now. I'm a little biased against assuming people who keep rolling scum, but I'll change my mind really quickly if someone does something to warrant my suspicion.

[LastPoet]

I was talking about the scum roll rates of certain players and my refusal to accept that they can continue to just keep rolling scum over and over. -Unless I see scummy behavior, in which case, I will not use my perceived logic of how many times someone is likely to roll scum again and again.

And as you may recall, last game I refused to accept that Smercury was scum until all of a sudden I noticed something scummy. The same is true right now. I'm a little biased against assuming people who keep rolling scum, but I'll change my mind really quickly if someone does something to warrant my suspicion.

So why wouldn't you continue with your line of investigation and voted for me above all else?


Unvote

Vote Aliza

[Aliza]

I was talking about the scum roll rates of certain players and my refusal to accept that they can continue to just keep rolling scum over and over. -Unless I see scummy behavior, in which case, I will not use my perceived logic of how many times someone is likely to roll scum again and again.

And as you may recall, last game I refused to accept that Smercury was scum until all of a sudden I noticed something scummy. The same is true right now. I'm a little biased against assuming people who keep rolling scum, but I'll change my mind really quickly if someone does something to warrant my suspicion.

So why wouldn't you continue with your line of investigation and voted for me above all else?


Unvote

Vote Aliza

What do you mean? I don't have any investigation going yet. I'm just talking right now. You raised a good point about Evie not being very talkative, and Rev raised a good point about Assassin's random vote on someone who hasn't even logged in yet. 

That's really all I got.

[Assassin]

Good morrow all.  Saturday is a bad day for me to try and play Mafia as I am out most of the day and then run a D&D session in the evening.  Today I should be able to contribute a bit more.  Not much to go on yet, double whammy of 48 hour days and starting on the weekend is the likely culprit.  I for one despise completely random votes on Day 1, especially when you announce that they are random.  Removes all threat from said vote.  I prefer to use a Day 1 vote as a cudgel to get someone talking, it's why I generally start with Aliza as she tends to give fairly good responses to early pressure.  With this in mind let us turn our attention to our dear friend @Assassin who has been a quiet boy so far.  Did you roll scum 2 games in a row?

Unvote
Vote Assassin

I thought random voting was what you're supposed to do. Just throw a vote out there and see how they react, and that's how the conversation gets started. 

@Smercury44 and @Assassin feel like they'd be very unlikely to have rolled scum again. I'd include @Paleophyte in that group, but we all know he rolled moderator this game. I totally get how math works, and I understand we all have 2/9 chance of getting it going into most games, but if Smercury rolled scum again, that would make her scum rate a whopping 80%, and it would make Assassin's scum rate 75%. 

This is does not make it impossible! We have a very small sample size but we've seen clearly that Smercury carried a 75% scum chance before this game, so I get that Assassin could have increased from 67 to 75. It just doesn't feel right. For reasons I don't understand, we've got some people with 50, 67 and 75% of their mafia games as scum, and a good number of us have 0. For the record, I insisted emphatically last game that Smercury wasn't scum, so take my logic with a grain of salt. 

.... and Assassin's naked vote on @Atothetheist is a little unsettling.

Random is bad because it gets you nothing, especially when you tell them this is not a real vote so there is no reason to treat it as such.  If Assassin does not respond to my pressure I fully intend to use that to build a wagon based on previous play.

As to the math, that is a gambler's fallacy since each game is rolled independent of each other and in small sample sizes like we have here you can have long runs.  If we played 10,000 games of mafia with the same 10 people it would more or less level out to each player being scum 20% of the time but statistical normality like that only expresses with large sample sizes.

Interesting angle.

Yes I have rolled scum 2 times in my last 2 games.

I have a question for you Rev. At a specific point in time, say the period before I rolled scum for the first time, would you bet that I roll scum for the next two games I play as well? Because it sounds like you're saying rolling scum 3 times in 3 games is normal odds...

For what it's worth, without reads the last person I'd vote for today is smerc simply because all games I've seen of her are scum. So mafia being a chance game, why would I put my day 1 bet that she's scum? She's the most likely (besides me imo) to be town. 

Anyway statistics talk aside, as that is debatable. 

Read wise I'll put Aliza and Aurora as town. They're playing very similar games to the ones I've played with them when they were town - probably town again. 

Hoping to see more content day 1.2 nothing striking me as particular scummy today.

[Revenant77x]

As to the math, that is a gambler's fallacy since each game is rolled independent of each other and in small sample sizes like we have here you can have long runs.  If we played 10,000 games of mafia with the same 10 people it would more or less level out to each player being scum 20% of the time but statistical normality like that only expresses with large sample sizes.

So, odds. What are the odds? I'd love to nail assassin again, but his contribution is on par with yours. Besides meta what do you have tosay about the game?

Not a ton so far, lack of participation and no scum tells.  Aliza is reading slight town or at least seems to be in her normal early game patterns.  I am leaning on Assassin because I think I have a bead on his scum game but that could be a false positive on my side.  So far most people are nul.

[Revenant77x]

Interesting angle.

Yes I have rolled scum 2 times in my last 2 games.

I have a question for you Rev. At a specific point in time, say the period before I rolled scum for the first time, would you bet that I roll scum for the next two games I play as well? Because it sounds like you're saying rolling scum 3 times in 3 games is normal odds...

For what it's worth, without reads the last person I'd vote for today is smerc simply because all games I've seen of her are scum. So mafia being a chance game, why would I put my day 1 bet that she's scum? She's the most likely (besides me imo) to be town. 

Anyway statistics talk aside, as that is debatable. 

Read wise I'll put Aliza and Aurora as town. They're playing very similar games to the ones I've played with them when they were town - probably town again. 

Hoping to see more content day 1.2 nothing striking me as particular scummy today.

You are no more or less likely to roll scum in this game than any other player.  It is not weighted so the previous results have no influence on this game.  It is unlikely that someone would roll scum 100 games in a row but with the system we use it is possible.  

I would agree about Aliza reading town, so far Aurora is very weak town/null read so far but that is normal day 1 with her.  LastPoet seems to be doing his normal town game but one should never trust him.  This post from you comes off more town than anything you did while scum last game so weak town lean on you so far.

[EvieTheAvocado]

I thought random voting was what you're supposed to do.

It is. Over at Mafiascum (where all the best players play) they even call it the "Random Voting Stage" at the beginning. The pressure at the start is merely the threat of being lynched ... because town needs a lynch. But scum doesn't want to be lynched. So, in theory, a town player is less worried about having a vote on them at the start, for example.

[Assassin]

@Revenant77x yeah you did mention you're going to put more effort into the game on page two. So I think this vote on me is you trying to pressure/gather info. Town lean.

@EvieTheAvocado lol the random voting thing comes up every game. (I agree with you for what it's worth, the random vote is literally about the vote itself not the "you didnt make up a reason therefore your vote is null") but I think I'm done arguing about that!

[Paleophyte]

Off'l Vote Count
Day 1, Count 2

Aliza (2): Smercury, LastPoet
Aroura (1): Evie
Atothetheist (1): Assassin
LastPoet (1): Aliza
Assassin (1): Revenant

[LastPoet]

I thought random voting was what you're supposed to do.

It is. Over at Mafiascum (where all the best players play) they even call it the "Random Voting Stage" at the beginning. The pressure at the start is merely the threat of being lynched ... because town needs a lynch. But scum doesn't want to be lynched. So, in theory, a town player is less worried about having a vote on them at the start, for example.

Who are you, and what have you done with the real Evie?

[LastPoet]

What do you mean? I don't have any investigation going yet. I'm just talking right now. You raised a good point about Evie not being very talkative, and Rev raised a good point about Assassin's random vote on someone who hasn't even logged in yet. 

That's really all I got.

You hurt my feelings by voting for me.
 
Unvote

[Aliza]

Well my vote threat on @LastPoet hasn't borne any fruit.    I'll keep looking.

Unvote



Hi Evie!  How are you doing today?

[LastPoet]

@Revenant77x yeah you did mention you're going to put more effort into the game on page two. So I think this vote on me is you trying to pressure/gather info. Town lean.

@EvieTheAvocado lol the random voting thing comes up every game. (I agree with you for what it's worth, the random vote is literally about the vote itself not the "you didnt make up a reason therefore your vote is null") but I think I'm done arguing about that!

Is this a confession?

[Smercury44]

Hi all, just got all caught up on the thread. My reads so far in the game

Aliza is leaning town for me at the moment, nothing drastically different about her play so far.

Rev and Assassin and Aliza all mostly taking back and forth about the odds of rolling scum. Not a lot to go on there. Null.

Last Poet starting off much more active than the last couple of games, but when he was around in those he was quite active. Doing some scum hunting, nothing super suspicious. Slight town lean.

Aurora’s play so far seems town as well.

Evie being quiet so far would like to hear more from him, but nothing to go off of for a vote yet @EvieTheAvocado what are your thoughts?

Nothing from Ato or Mooney yet so null.

Unvote

Gotta do some chores quick, but I’ll be around a bit tonight.

[Revenant77x]

PodPerson Evie is a bit odd.  Short concise post, ultra careful, iirc he admitted that being his scum tell.  Long winded confrontational Evie tends to break town more often than not.

[unvot]
Vote  EvieTheAvocado

[Assassin]

@Revenant77x yeah you did mention you're going to put more effort into the game on page two. So I think this vote on me is you trying to pressure/gather info. Town lean.

@EvieTheAvocado lol the random voting thing comes up every game. (I agree with you for what it's worth, the random vote is literally about the vote itself not the "you didnt make up a reason therefore your vote is null") but I think I'm done arguing about that!

Is this a confession?

Of what?

[Smercury44]

Dang still quiet in here, no one is around when I am going to bed here soon, got work tomorrow and will try and check in on my lunch break before the phase change like I do.

[EvieTheAvocado]

I thought random voting was what you're supposed to do.

It is. Over at Mafiascum (where all the best players play) they even call it the "Random Voting Stage" at the beginning. The pressure at the start is merely the threat of being lynched ... because town needs a lynch. But scum doesn't want to be lynched. So, in theory, a town player is less worried about having a vote on them at the start, for example.

Who are you, and what have you done with the real Evie?

There is only one Evie and I am He.

What exactly did I say that made it not seem like me?

Only thing different, really, is that Evie is super duper happy and spending a lot more RL time, nowadays.

[EvieTheAvocado]

Hi Evie!  How are you doing today?

Physically ill, for over a month, but emotionally fantastic ... thanks for asking!

[EvieTheAvocado]

Evie being quiet so far would like to hear more from him, but nothing to go off of for a vote yet @EvieTheAvocado what are your thoughts?

Nothing to really go on, yet. We just need a lynch. We need to try and get someone lynched and see how they react.

[EvieTheAvocado]

@Revenant77x yeah you did mention you're going to put more effort into the game on page two. So I think this vote on me is you trying to pressure/gather info. Town lean.

@EvieTheAvocado lol the random voting thing comes up every game. (I agree with you for what it's worth, the random vote is literally about the vote itself not the "you didnt make up a reason therefore your vote is null") but I think I'm done arguing about that!

Is this a confession?

Of what?

Of agreeing with me I think

[EvieTheAvocado]

Oh, I'm all caught up. Bloody hell, lol.

Goodnight.

[Aliza]

Dang still quiet in here, no one is around when I am going to bed here soon, got work tomorrow and will try and check in on my lunch break before the phase change like I do.

I'm here! I'll talk to you.

[Aliza]

I want someone to talk to.