Political Watch

[Thumpalumpacus]

It's a shitshow.

In addition, I'm reading that Democrats (the Party and many candidates) have a lot less money at their disposal for the upcoming midterms than their GOP opponents. I haven't found a full analysis, but I would imagine that Democratic fundraising has collapsed. One reason being, a direct assault on ActBlue, and unfortunately, not totally unjustified -- but the vast majority of candidates have become quite dependent on that one fundraising platform and they are scrambling to find alternatives. Another one I suspect is in play is that people have lost confidence in the Party and aren't receptive to the constant fundraising appeals, especially when folks are bracing for particularly tough economic times. Finally, the Party is not offering much in the way of fresh blood, they are keeping the same old ineffectual fossils in power so long as they feel the seat is safe.

I know my own modest budget for supporting political activity has been largely diverted to independent media subscriptions (I have zero confidence in almost any of the legacy media anymore and am tired of their constant sane-washing), plus some activism via outfits like Indivisible.

I think their gerontocracy is harming them right now and that will have long repercussions as young people get tired of not being heard by the party that is more line with their views on most issues. They won't forget being ignored.

[pattylt]

* They won't forget being ignored.*

They won’t vote as long as they’re being ignored. It wouldn’t take much to change that if the boomer politicians get out of the way and start mentoring instead of continuing to run. It’s in these older politicians hands and they need a big dose of humble pie to realize it.

My two voting age grandkids did both vote for Harris…they preferred her to Biden and she said a few things they supported but, they weren’t thrilled with her and didn’t vote down ballot because those politicians weren’t speaking to them at all. The question is, what’s it going to take to change this party? Another big loss at midterms? The youth are waiting for a hero to step up and they don’t know what that’s supposed to look like because no one is messaging to them.

[Thumpalumpacus]

* They won't forget being ignored.*

They won’t vote as long as they’re being ignored.  It wouldn’t take much to change that if the boomer politicians get out of the way and start mentoring instead of continuing to run.  It’s in these older politicians hands and they need a big dose of humble pie to realize it.

My two voting age grandkids did both vote for Harris…they preferred her to Biden and she said a few things they supported but, they weren’t thrilled with her and didn’t vote down ballot because those politicians weren’t speaking to them at all.  The question is, what’s it going to take to change this party?  Another big loss at midterms?  The youth are waiting for a hero to step up and they don’t know what that’s supposed to look like because no one is messaging to them.

Right, and those are future votes the Dems have lost, in all likelihood.

[mordant]

I think their gerontocracy is harming them right now and that will have long repercussions as young people get tired of not being heard by the party that is more line with their views on most issues. They won't forget being ignored.

Yup.

The Bulwark seems to be on fire the past couple of days, they have another excellent article on this topic -- behind a paywall but here's a fair-use quote:

The Democratic party has more to learn from Alexei Navalny or the protesters in Serbia than it does from Chuck Schumer or strategists obsessing over message-testing crosstabs. This battle is half mass mobilization and half asymmetric warfare. Over the next year those tactics will matter more than traditional political messaging as it has been practiced here in living memory.

Once you accept that reality, our next steps become clear.

The rough roadmap for how to proceed goes like this:

Demonstrate popular power in the provinces through large-scale rallies.

Use these events to organize the resistance into a mass movement that can be called into action.

Direct the mass movement into targeted political strikes: Getting blowout wins in special elections; boycotts of Tesla; etc.

Politicize everything: Attack the authoritarians for every bad thing that happens, anywhere in the world. Flood the zone.

Elevate the corruption/graft in a way that pits the billionaire insiders against the “forgotten man.”

When the moment is right, bring this movement to the Capital for a show of strength.

Use this demonstration as a slingshot to take back legislative power in the 2026 elections.

More importantly, use it to send a message to the institutional actors that people will have their back if they show courage.

[Cavebear]

* They won't forget being ignored.*

They won’t vote as long as they’re being ignored.  It wouldn’t take much to change that if the boomer politicians get out of the way and start mentoring instead of continuing to run.  It’s in these older politicians hands and they need a big dose of humble pie to realize it.

My two voting age grandkids did both vote for Harris…they preferred her to Biden and she said a few things they supported but, they weren’t thrilled with her and didn’t vote down ballot because those politicians weren’t speaking to them at all.  The question is, what’s it going to take to change this party?  Another big loss at midterms?  The youth are waiting for a hero to step up and they don’t know what that’s supposed to look like because no one is messaging to them.

How old do your grandkids think a President should be? I mean, I used to assume elders knew more about the world. But now I'm older than most candidates and sometimes think they are too inexperienced.

[SYZ]

I'd like to think (or am I being naive?) that there'll be
a massive Democratic voter turnout in November 2028.
Maybe 99% even?     Last year only around 60% voted.

A few of the more prominent Democratic politicians
who could possibly to put their hands up in 2028:

Gretchen Whitmer; Age: 53.
Raphael Warnock; Age: 55.
Josh Shapiro; Age: 51.

JB Pritzker; Age: 59.
Jared Polis; Age: 49.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; Age: 35.

Gavin Newsom; Age: 57.
Chris Murphy; Age: 51.
Wes Moore; Age: 46.

Kamala Harris; Age: 60.
Pete Buttigieg; Age: 42.
Andy Beshear; Age: 47.

At age 91, senator Chuck Grassley is the Republican's
oldest politician, with the Democrat’s Bill Pascrell at
age 86.  Both should've long ago been put out to pasture.   

[pattylt]

* They won't forget being ignored.*

They won’t vote as long as they’re being ignored.  It wouldn’t take much to change that if the boomer politicians get out of the way and start mentoring instead of continuing to run.  It’s in these older politicians hands and they need a big dose of humble pie to realize it.

My two voting age grandkids did both vote for Harris…they preferred her to Biden and she said a few things they supported but, they weren’t thrilled with her and didn’t vote down ballot because those politicians weren’t speaking to them at all.  The question is, what’s it going to take to change this party?  Another big loss at midterms?  The youth are waiting for a hero to step up and they don’t know what that’s supposed to look like because no one is messaging to them.

How old do your grandkids think a President should be?  I mean, I used to assume elders knew more about the world.  But now I'm older than most candidates and sometimes think they are too inexperienced.  

I’ll ask them!  I’m going to guess they’ll answer about 50yo but I really don’t know!

[Minimalist]

Syz, I took a realism pencil to your list. Remember....this is "Murrika, you are talking about.


Gretchen Whitmer; Age: 53.  Totally competent...but I think the US is too immature for a woman president.
Raphael Warnock; Age: 55.    Sure, put another minority on top of the ticket!
Josh Shapiro; Age: 51.  No problem.

JB Pritzker; Age: 59.  No Problem
Jared Polis; Age: 49.  No Problem
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; Age: 35.  Way too polarizing.  You're trying to win an election not just make a point.

Gavin Newsom; Age: 57.  Capable and articulate...but a lot of baggage for the republicunts to exploit.
Chris Murphy; Age: 51.   Certainly capable but senators don't seem to accomplish much.
Wes Moore; Age: 46.      I had to look him up.  Let him run in the primaries.

Kamala Harris; Age: 60.  Come on.  She had her shot and failed.
Pete Buttigieg; Age: 42.  Brilliant, sophisticated, but he has that great big anchor tied to his feet. Again, this the US.
Andy Beshear; Age: 47.   Posssibility.  He did a pretty good job in a shit state like Kentucky.

[mordant]

Syz, I took a realism pencil to your list. Remember....this is "Murrika, you are talking about.


Gretchen Whitmer; Age: 53.  Totally competent...but I think the US is too immature for a woman president.
Raphael Warnock; Age: 55.    Sure, put another minority on top of the ticket!
Josh Shapiro; Age: 51.  No problem.

JB Pritzker; Age: 59.  No Problem
Jared Polis; Age: 49.  No Problem
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; Age: 35.  Way too polarizing.  You're trying to win an election not just make a point.

Gavin Newsom; Age: 57.  Capable and articulate...but a lot of baggage for the republicunts to exploit.
Chris Murphy; Age: 51.   Certainly capable but senators don't seem to accomplish much.
Wes Moore; Age: 46.      I had to look him up.  Let him run in the primaries.

Kamala Harris; Age: 60.  Come on.  She had her shot and failed.
Pete Buttigieg; Age: 42.  Brilliant, sophisticated, but he has that great big anchor tied to his feet. Again, this the US.
Andy Beshear; Age: 47.   Posssibility.  He did a pretty good job in a shit state like Kentucky.

It's not an accident that the possibilities that seem to excite / inspire people the most in my observation are AOC and Buttegieg -- younger, less "establishment". I have to agree about Buttegieg and in any case he's too much of a centrist to get enthusiastic progressive support; he only looks good relatively, and we need a candidate who doesn't have such a strong "lesser of two evils" vibe.  As for AOC ... she's the whole package, but ... too soon. Let her primary Schumer instead this time around. My money would be on JB Pritzker. He has stood up courageously where it counts in Illinois, and is almost as good at trolling Trump as Newsom, who I absolutely don't trust. I would say Newsom is an opportunist way more than Pritzker.

What about Gov Walz? Does he have the same "you tried and failed, you are banished to the wilderness forever" cooties as Harris? He's articulate, principled, courageous, and an actual leader. I'd like to see how he does at the top of the ticket.

[Dānu]

What about Gov Walz? Does he have the same "you tried and failed, you are banished to the wilderness forever" cooties as Harris? He's articulate, principled, courageous, and an actual leader. I'd like to see how he does at the top of the ticket.

Walz is from a very liberal state. His policy record and other deep blue facts about him won't sell to moderates.

[Rhythmcs]

If you want to compel maga to destroy itself a 1st gen mixed race gay trans man with a phd in dei from the smoldering ruins of portland.

[mordant]

What about Gov Walz? Does he have the same "you tried and failed, you are banished to the wilderness forever" cooties as Harris? He's articulate, principled, courageous, and an actual leader. I'd like to see how he does at the top of the ticket.

Walz is from a very liberal state.  His policy record and other deep blue facts about him won't sell to moderates.

So? It's already a proven losing strategy to move right to cater to moderates.

[pattylt]

Jared Polis is also gay so, if Buttigieg is hampered by being gay, so is Jared. However, Buttigieg may be somewhat moderate, he’s also whip smart and Fox viewers have seen him being so. Polis is more to the right than Buttigieg though they’re pretty close politically, I think.

If the Dems can’t elect a female, they likely can’t get a gay man elected either….which is sad, but true.

[Dānu]

Walz is from a very liberal state.  His policy record and other deep blue facts about him won't sell to moderates.

So? It's already a proven losing strategy to move right to cater to moderates.

Citation needed.

[pattylt]

I’m tired of “moderates”. While it seems we’re too immature to elect women and gays, we should run a true liberal. Polls show most liberal policies have majority support, very high among Dems but even many Repubs and we should just ignore those that scream, “they’re too liberal to win”. How the hell do we know that if we’ve never run one?

[Dānu]

It's harder to win votes than it is to lose them.

[mordant]

So? It's already a proven losing strategy to move right to cater to moderates.

Citation needed.

Harris lost the election. Walz later admitted that he was restrained from the more humane and progressive themes he intuitively wanted to pursue. It wasn't his ticket, so he deferred.

Right now you have the shit show in NYC to illustrate how this works, over and over, and how little the Dems have learned. You have the progressive democratic socialist, Mamdani, closing in on Cuomo, and rather than be delighted that he's resonating with the voters, they bring in big money and Bill Clinton to endorse Cuomo. Because a corrupt centrist sexual predator beats a competent and honest progressive, any day.

You have the DNC cooking up some bullshit realization that they didn't count the votes properly that got David Hogg elected to vice chair, and he's being ousted and new rules put in place to prevent the reforms he's trying to enact, which include primarying candidates who aren't doing their fucking job regardless of whether their district is considered "safe" for the incumbent.

The Party never met a popular or innovative concept -- or change in general -- that they didn't hate. It's one of the reasons we are where we are.

If enough people can look at all this ... winning ... and think it's because the party didn't go hard enough to the right, then we're just well and truly fucked. The right is the fucking problem.

[Dānu]

Citation needed.

Harris lost the election. Walz later admitted that he was restrained from the more humane and progressive themes he intuitively wanted to pursue. It wasn't his ticket, so he deferred.

Right now you have the shit show in NYC to illustrate how this works, over and over, and how little the Dems have learned. You have the progressive democratic socialist, Mamdani, closing in on Cuomo, and rather than be delighted that he's resonating with the voters, they bring in big money and Bill Clinton to endorse Cuomo. Because a corrupt centrist sexual predator beats a competent and honest progressive, any day.

You have the DNC cooking up some bullshit realization that they didn't count the votes properly that got David Hogg elected to vice chair, and he's being ousted and new rules put in place to prevent the reforms he's trying to enact, which include primarying candidates who aren't doing their fucking job regardless of whether their district is considered "safe" for the incumbent.

The Party never met a popular or innovative concept -- or change in general -- that they didn't hate. It's one of the reasons we are where we are.

If enough people can look at all this ... winning ... and think it's because the party didn't go hard enough to the right, then we're just well and truly fucked. The right is the fucking problem.

That's nice. Nothing you wrote actually addressed the question.

[Rhythmcs]

I’m tired of “moderates”.  While it seems we’re too immature to elect women and gays, we should run a true liberal.  Polls show most liberal policies have majority support, very high among Dems but even many Repubs and we should just ignore those that scream, “they’re too liberal to win”.  How the hell do we know that if we’ve never run one?

-all you have to do is put white before welfare and you'll find that maga are a bunch of card carrying commies.

[Dānu]

“This is an incomplete strike,” Lewis said. “If this is all there is, here’s what left: the entire stockpile of 60% uranium, which was stored at Isfahan in tunnels that are untouched.”

A satellite image taken by Airbus shows significant damage to the Isfahan site and signs that the underground portion of the facility was hit, according to the Institute for Science and International Security, which analyzed the image. But there are layers of tunnels at the facility, so it’s unclear how far the damage goes.

When reached for comment, the office of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told CNN, “We do not have anything additional to share at this time.”

Vice President JD Vance told ABC News’ “This Week” on Sunday that the administration plans to “work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel and that’s one of the things we’re going to have conversations with the Iranians about.”

“What we know is they no longer have the capacity to turn that stockpile of highly enriched uranium to weapons-grade uranium, and that was really the goal here,” Vance added.
“Enriching uranium up to the point of a nuclear weapon — that was what the president put a stop to last night.”

But multiple sources familiar with the latest US intelligence on both sites and the Trump administration’s objectives in launching the strikes told CNN that Isfahan’s underground facilities — which likely remain intact — must be addressed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

And on Thursday, the UN nuclear watchdog said that Iran was building a new nuclear enrichment plant at Isfahan that Tehran has said it will soon bring online.

The Iranians “have the material, they still have the capacity to make centrifuges, and they still have at least one giant underground centrifuge facility where they can install their centrifuges,” Lewis added. “So, it’s just not done.”

It remains unclear why US military planners decided against using bunker busters — officially known as Massive Ordinance Penetrators, or MOP, on Isfahan. The bombs are designed to penetrate deep underground, and sources say the tunnels under Isfahan are even deeper than those at the other two locations.

But even before the strikes were carried out, some US officials had raised pointed doubts about whether the MOPs was even capable of destroying the deeper tunnels.

While there were some questions about whether US bunker busters were capable of destroying the underground portions of Fordow — which had been the focus of the administration’s planning for the operation — multiple sources familiar with the discussions told CNN the likelihood of successfully doing the same at Isfahan was an even bigger question.

Early assessments raise questions over whether US destroyed bulk of enriched Iranian nuclear material

[SYZ]

Syz, I took a realism pencil to your list. Remember....this is "Murrika, you are talking about.


Gretchen Whitmer; Age: 53.  Totally competent...but I think the US is too immature for a woman president.
Raphael Warnock; Age: 55.    Sure, put another minority on top of the ticket!
Josh Shapiro; Age: 51.  No problem.

JB Pritzker; Age: 59.  No Problem
Jared Polis; Age: 49.  No Problem
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; Age: 35.  Way too polarizing.  You're trying to win an election not just make a point.

Gavin Newsom; Age: 57.  Capable and articulate...but a lot of baggage for the republicunts to exploit.
Chris Murphy; Age: 51.   Certainly capable but senators don't seem to accomplish much.
Wes Moore; Age: 46.      I had to look him up.  Let him run in the primaries.

Kamala Harris; Age: 60.  Come on.  She had her shot and failed.
Pete Buttigieg; Age: 42.  Brilliant, sophisticated, but he has that great big anchor tied to his feet. Again, this the US.
Andy Beshear; Age: 47.   Possibility.  He did a pretty good job in a shit state like Kentucky.

Thanks for your breakdown mate.     

[SYZ]

‘We made history’: Mamdani celebrates...

In a major upset, Andrew Cuomo who had been a recent
favourite—conceded after it was clear the 33-year old
Democrat had built a substantial lead over the more
experienced but scandal-scarred former governor.

Mamdani appeared to have cleared the first hurdle on
the road to becoming New York’s first Muslim mayor.   

After 93% of votes were counted in the primary’s first
round, Mamdani, a state representative, had 43.5% of
the vote. Cuomo was on 36.4%.

However, Cuomo told the New York Times he may still
run in the November mayoral election as an independent.
“I want to analyse and talk to some colleagues,” he said.

 —But...  There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip.

[Minimalist]

Fuckface will shit bricks.

[mordant]

Fuckface will shit bricks.

The Democratic Party is also shitting bricks. The gerontocracy is collapsing! Man the battle stations!

[epronovost]

Fuckface will shit bricks.

The Democratic Party is also shitting bricks. The gerontocracy is collapsing! Man the battle stations!

What, an actually charismatic young leader with good policies ideas? We can't have that!