The Monty Hall problem is named for its similarity to the Let's Make a Deal television

game show hosted by Monty Hall. This still confuses me somewhat. My (presumably)

faulty common sense tells me that your final choice of door is 50/50 for the car, so

there's no point in changing your choice. My maths is obviously lacking LOL.

The problem is stated as follows. Assume that a room is equipped with three doors.

Behind two are goats, and behind the third is a shiny new car. You are asked to pick

a door, and will win whatever is behind it. Let's say you pick door 1. Before the door

is opened, however, someone who knows what's behind the doors (Monty Hall) opens

one of the other two doors, revealing a goat, and asks you if you wish to change your

selection to the third door (i.e., the door which neither you picked nor he opened). The

Monty Hall problem is deciding whether you do.

The correct answer is that you do want to switch. If you do not switch, you have the

expected 1/3 chance of winning the car, since no matter whether you initially picked the

correct door, Monty will show you a door with a goat. But after Monty has eliminated one

of the doors for you, you obviously do not improve your chances of winning to better than

1/3 by sticking with your original choice. If you now switch doors, however, there is a 2/3

chance you will win the car (counterintuitive though it seems).

game show hosted by Monty Hall. This still confuses me somewhat. My (presumably)

faulty common sense tells me that your final choice of door is 50/50 for the car, so

there's no point in changing your choice. My maths is obviously lacking LOL.

The problem is stated as follows. Assume that a room is equipped with three doors.

Behind two are goats, and behind the third is a shiny new car. You are asked to pick

a door, and will win whatever is behind it. Let's say you pick door 1. Before the door

is opened, however, someone who knows what's behind the doors (Monty Hall) opens

one of the other two doors, revealing a goat, and asks you if you wish to change your

selection to the third door (i.e., the door which neither you picked nor he opened). The

Monty Hall problem is deciding whether you do.

The correct answer is that you do want to switch. If you do not switch, you have the

expected 1/3 chance of winning the car, since no matter whether you initially picked the

correct door, Monty will show you a door with a goat. But after Monty has eliminated one

of the doors for you, you obviously do not improve your chances of winning to better than

1/3 by sticking with your original choice. If you now switch doors, however, there is a 2/3

chance you will win the car (counterintuitive though it seems).

I'm a creationist; I believe that man created God.