The probability of the existence of the Christian God

[Thumpalumpacus]

You have nothing to apologize for. And that's the truth.

thank you for doing the legwork jumping on the grenade, Will.

Sorry, S/K, it just made more sense to me this way.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Only from drugs alone do 500,000 people die annually. If you want to contradict me, tell me what is worse than organized crime.

Organized religions which not only fleece followers but harbor and protect child molesters and -abusers would have to be in the running. At least Mafiosi aren't fucking little kids.

[Rhythmcs]

Wage theft is the single most profitable type of organized crime in the us. I suppose, if you added up all the proceeds from any crime, ever, they would be more..but then most of that would be in tax evasion, too.....so.....

[AutisticWill]

I haven't the slightest idea what's going on here. 

I'm not sure anyone does.

I do apologize; all of this was simply an elaborate rouse to get me a fine cup of coffee.

HAPPY APRIL FOOOOOOOOOOLS!

(yeah, it's not the First of April, but if I had done it then, you would have seen through it all too easily.)

[neutral]

In peacetime, organized crime is the state of maximum illegality and evilness.

Every 10 seconds a child dies of starvation. Thats 3 million children per year.

You have to find another example. I wrote "maximum illegality". Your example has to be illegal, too. Unfortunately, it is not illegal for a child to die of starvation.

[neutral]

What exactly is your goal by all this?

You come to an atheist site (knowing darned well that we don't believe in any kind of God), toss up some sort of babble about God and crime, and expect...what exactly?

The main threat to humanity is global war. The first priority for us is to find a way to permanently stop military conflicts between great powers. And that is my goal: to find a way to stop major wars.

In the public eye, this concern does not have the importance it deserves. In the Google autocomplete "how to stop", "how to stop wa", "how do we stop", "how to prevent", in none of them does the addition "... war" or "... wars" appear. When did you see the last TV show on the topic of finding concrete solutions to stop wars?

The responsibility for finding a solution lies with our leaders. If our leaders really tried to find a way to stop wars and couldn't, they should have asked the population for solutions. Because our leaders didn't ask the population, we could deduce that they didn't even try to find a solution.

Wars can be stopped by a law of war. It is not difficult to design a law that will stop most wars, but it is difficult to find a way to force states to adopt such a law.
What if we somehow found a way to prove that our leaders are liars and criminals? Then, because states can be ruled by immoral, criminal individuals, we may no longer accept the collective responsibility of states in the event of war. A possible solution for mankind to be free of wars is to adopt a law by which the state is forbidden to finance wars. Financing wars will be made only by individual persons, who consider it necessary, based on a contract.
The only wars to be financed by states are those that almost the entire international community agrees with.

"The U.S. launched 201 out of the 248 armed conflicts since the end of WWII."
The first country to be forced to adopt a law of war is the US.

So, if we demonstrate that states are criminal, we can finally have peace.

The theory (see reply 21) can be read by both atheists and theists. Atheists should read only the first part and ignore the rest.
If the Bible can help us to end wars, why not use it.

If you have a theory that you want to test, you go to rational people who will not accept anything without proper justification. I am here because I thought it was the best place to find rational people. I hoped that a very few of you at least tried to get past the appearance. A guy comes to an atheist forum and starts with a conspiracy theory, then continues with some prophecy, and finishes with some nonsense coincidences. Really? Imagine a rational atheist reading this. Can you imagine anything worse? Stop judging things by how they appear and look at what is beyond them. Don't assume anything without evidence. I am not a Christian, I am not a religious person. The right thing to do with a theory, no matter how absurd it sounds, is to try to read it and stop at the first part that it is false. How many false theories has mankind created? They have all been taken seriously, and proven to be false.

Organized crime has made huge profits (reality). Common sense: its leaders should be very rich, surely there are many illegal billionaires hidden around the globe (assumption/belief).
The fact is that Western states were the ones who organized drug trafficking in the past. (see opium wars)
There are no (hundreds/thousands) known billionaires from illicit activities. (reality, Forbes). Logical conclusion: Western states are still organizing drug trafficking as they did in the past.

If Western states are not involved in illegal activities, then where is the huge wealth of organized crime? It is hidden. I know this argument from theists. Where is God? It is hidden. Why an atheist needs to invent hundreds/thousands of hidden illegal billionaires, just to confirm his view of the world based only on common sense. Why cannot an atheist apply the same logic based on facts and reason to affirm that God does not exist, to his view of society and the nature of the state? What is the difference between theists and atheists if they both invent hidden entities just to justify their view of the world based on common sense, and not facts? One invents God, the other hundreds/thousands of hidden illegal billionaires. And they both are arrogant, thinking that one is better than the other, when in fact they are the same.

Why not question the nature of the state? How come a criminal state (how organized drug trafficking) becomes overnight a moral state, just by passing a simple law.

"Despite a major opium epidemic in China at the end of the 19th century, there was little interest in suppressing a business that was so profitable for opium merchants, shippers, bankers, insurance agencies and governments. Many national economies were as dependent on opium as the addicts themselves. Indeed, what Karl Marx described as "the free trade in poison" was such an important source of revenue for Great Powers that they fought for control of opium markets."
100 Years of Drug Control. Antonio Maria Costa - Executive Director - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

Imagine a criminal state giving up huge profits to a rival Great Power, just because one day they decide to be a moral state.

Assume there is a business generating huge annual profits in the amount of a few hundreds of billions of dollars. We can rank down all companies in terms of profitability. Within only a few years, the most profitable company can be purchased. Using the initial profit, plus the profit of the company purchased, the following ranked company is purchased. Repeating this algorithm, we can understand that it is only a matter of time until the entire economy is controlled by those who own the initially extremely profitable business. That business exists, and it is the drug trafficking business. This is one of the reasons why drug trafficking will never be private.

A general rule of human society is wealth concentration. Applying this rule to the drug industry, we obtain the following:
- In time, the wealth coming from drugs would be found in the possession of a closed group of individuals whose personal wealth is several times higher than that of the richest person on the planet. The owners of large and profitable businesses are expected to be the world’s richest men. The most profitable human activities are illegal, and, subsequently, the organized crime leaders would be the richest people on the planet.
- America would be dominated by 2-3 mega criminal groups, just like all industries ended up being dominated by a small number of giants.

Both versions fail to correspond with reality. Thus, we either accept that a general rule exceptionally does not apply, or we accept that it applies and there is one single criminal group that monopolized America: the State. Thus, there are no rich people whose wealth is owed to illegal activities because, largely, the profits do not end up in private hands, but the state takes care that criminal groups are small-sized so as not to create great problems for society. Profits are made by organizers in transit, between the producing country and the market. Drugs are purchased at a price, so that the producer stays poor, and sold at a price close to the street price, so that the seller is not allowed to get rich.

I expect very few of you to accept the reality that there are no hundreds/thousands of hidden illegal billionaires, and the logical conclusion that states are still organizing drug trafficking as they did in the past.

So, on a scale from 0 to 100, Is it true that states (the US in particular) are involved in illegal economic activities? (0=false, 50=I don't know, 100=true)
On what facts did you base your answer? (If your answer is 0, then you have to provide evidence that the huge private wealth of organized crime exists, otherwise, you are just another type of believer)

For some time, I will post less often in the future.

[Deesse23]

In peacetime, organized crime is the state of maximum illegality and evilness.

Every 10 seconds a child dies of starvation. Thats 3 million children per year.

You have to find another example. I wrote "maximum illegality". Your example has to be illegal, too. Unfortunately, it is not illegal for a child to die of starvation.

Thats the maximum amount of badwidth i grant you. You are beyond stupid.

[Charladele]

War can be stopped by a law of war???

What kind of weed are you smoking?

[pattylt]

I don’t believe that a utopia can exist.

Do you really think China and Russia would ever agree to some international law of war? Why not start with them? None of the Great Powers are moral enough to agree to any mutual international peace treaty and all will break any treaty when they feel threatened…including the US. The closest we can come is what we already have…treaties, the UN, alliances and mutually assured destruction.

Pipe dreams are fun to imagine but they aren’t real.

[AutisticWill]

What exactly is your goal by all this?

You come to an atheist site (knowing darned well that we don't believe in any kind of God), toss up some sort of babble about God and crime, and expect...what exactly?

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... give it up dude; give it up all together.

[brewerb]

[
You have to find another example. I wrote "maximum illegality". Your example has to be illegal, too. Unfortunately, it is not illegal for a child to die of starvation.

Then the probability of god(s) depends on men breaking mans laws.  

Time for you to move on to a new thread.

I'm sure that you have something to say about Revelations.

[Paleophyte]

Citations please. Unlike some gormless believers, we aren't all terrified of really big numbers.

https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/frontpage...there.html
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime
"The UNODC report estimates that the total amount of criminal proceeds generated in 2009, excluding those derived from tax evasion, may have been approximately $2.1 trillion."
Multiply that by 30 or 15 (only from 2009 to the present time).

Let's have a look at the full quote:

"The UNODC report estimates that the total amount of criminal proceeds generated in 2009, excluding those derived from tax evasion, may have been approximately $2.1 trillion, or 3.6 per cent of GDP in that year (2.3 to 5.5 per cent). Of that total, the proceeds of transnational organized crime - such as drug trafficking, counterfeiting, human trafficking and small arms smuggling - may have amounted to 1.5 per cent of global GDP, and 70 per cent of those proceeds are likely to have been laundered through the financial system."

Translation: Organized crime accounts for only a small fraction of the economy.

[Astreja]

For some time, I will post less often in the future.

Well, seeing as you have zero credible evidence in support of your thesis "the probability of the existence of the Christian god," and instead decided to fixate on the probability of worldwide criminal activity and its relationship to governments, could we convince you to amend "post less often" to "stop posting altogether"?

[Dānu]

Don't confuse the nutball with facts. He might cry.

[AutisticWill]

Don't confuse the nutball with facts.  He might cry.

[drinks from vile of christ-tears]

Bring it on.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Men already tried outlawing war ... in the 1920s. Before, you know, World War Two.

So I'm not sure what another law will accomplish. Nukes have done a more credible job, at least with the Great Powers. I do see that you should read a little more history, though.

[OakTree500]

If the Bible can help us to end wars, why not use it.

Highlighting this part in particular: The bible, its religion and all other religions have CAUSED most of the historic/modern wars.......so thats not going to help at all is it?

Getting back to the point of the topic:

"The probability of the existence of the Christian God" - its 0.

How many gods were named/created BEFORE the christian god? MANY. How many of those were real? 0. How much actual evidence do we have of this particular god or infact, ANY, god? 0.


Just because something is popular doesn't make it true. and all the numbers x 0...is still 0.

[Mathilda]

We'd actually have to define what a god is before we can even try calculating a probability for its existence.

But for some reason, if you ask a Christian what a god is they look at you as if you're utterly insane. They can't ever provide an answer though if you insist.

[Unsapien]

If god existed & gave a crap, we wouldn't need laws, he could just magic us up to be its perfect little slaves.

Organized crime = the church, they created a fake cure to a fake problem that they themselves created, threatening people's lives if they don't comply with they "rules". 

Do us a favour and stop telling us it exists and call the dude up on your supernatural phone and tell it to get it's ass down here and explain itself directly.

[Deesse23]

We'd actually have to define what a god is before we can even try calculating a probability for its existence.

And we have to establish that this god is actually possible/a possibility. Just saying it is so is not sufficient.

[Atothetheist]

World organized crime has gained revenues in the amount of tens of thousands of billions of dollars in recent decades. Today, there are no known billionaires from illicit activities. There aren't tens or hundreds of billionaires in dollars missing, but thousands of billionaires. The combined wealth of organized crime is much higher than the wealth of all the billionaires in the world. If the vast private wealth of the world's organized crime is missing, it means that the Western States are those that organize and use the profits from illicit activities. We have a choice between believing that the states controls organized crime (because states in the past were the ones who organized drug trafficking, and today there are no known billionaires from illegal activities) and believing that there are many hidden illegal billionaires and organized crime is the main force of the global economy (because organized crime is richer than all the legal billionaires in the world).

There are only two options:
option A: (Western) states are involved in illegal activities.
option B: (Western) states are not involved in illegal activities, in which case organized crime is the main force in the global economy.
Which option do you think is the correct one? More importantly, what facts do you base your choice on? Do you agree that, in both options, the world is ruled by criminals?

No industry or large company is controlled by organized crime, therefore global organized crime cannot be the main force in the global economy. If it is the American state that rules global organized crime, then one of the most important prophecies of the Bible, namely that the most powerful kingdom (state) that has ever existed will lose its power in judgment, is about to be fulfilled.

So far, prophets have failed to provide evidence that they speak in the name of God, so religion has been based on faith alone. This time, one of the most important prophecies (the judgment of the ruler of this world - the American state) is fulfilled by a man who has 6 coincidences in his personal data, out of a total of 32 coincidences. Through the man, name, initials of the name, location of the town where the theory was created, street names, date of birth, links to the three major monotheistic religions (Judaism, Christianity, and Islam), and all elements of the Trinity (the Father, the Son and the Holy Spirit) can be made. Most of these coincidences can be verified, and for the first time, we have something real, something that can be measured about God. The coincidences can be used to estimate the probability of the existence of the Christian God.

Link removed

The probability of the Christian God existing is next door to 0 percent.

[AutisticWill]

The probability of the Christian God existing is next door to 0 percent.

That may be, but the probability that jesus christ is up N's ass and around the corner is 1.

Now if we consider that the probability of the christian god existing is 0, and that christ must, perforce, exist in N's cavity, it follows that N has nothing rammed against his prostate at this very moment.

And that's a tragedy.

Do you really want that for him?

I don't want that for him.

Hey N! Go fuck yourself!  : D

[rocinantexyz]

After you have found a life form, what is the probability you found it in a location capable of sustaining life? I'd guess about 100%. We don't even know what the right question is (or if the concept of a right/useful question even makes sense in the context).

There is really no way to even get started; we are too ignorant. When someone tells you otherwise, they are selling snake oil (or it is breaking news), imo.

[airportkid]

After you have found a life form, what is the probability you found it in a location capable of sustaining life?

I have two predictions about extraterrestrial life:

1.  When we discover it, only then will we realize we'd been aware of it already but hadn't recognized it for what it is -

2.  and we'll find it is prolific encompassing its entire locale.  Here on Earth, from deep beneath the surface to high into the upper atmosphere there is not a single cubic millimeter that is sterile (except in purpose constructed clean rooms or other sterile devices).

[Cavebear]

I haven't the slightest idea what's going on here. 

I'm not sure anyone does.

Seems to be a coffee clatch. Myself, I like green tea.