The probability of the existence of the Christian God

[Mathilda]

Acting in good-faith, I looked up the document. [Sigh.........]

It's worse than I thought.

It turns out that Neutral didn't even write his first post, he literally just copy-pasted the 3rd page of a document [1st in pagination] by a dude named 'son of Avram.'

Ah sorry about that, I did copy and paste sentences into google to see if he was spamming other forums but nothing came up. I didn't think of searching the actual document.

[AutisticWill]

Acting in good-faith, I looked up the document. [Sigh.........]

It's worse than I thought.

It turns out that Neutral didn't even write his first post, he literally just copy-pasted the 3rd page of a document [1st in pagination] by a dude named 'son of Avram.'

Ah sorry about that, I did copy and paste sentences into google to see if he was spamming other forums but nothing came up. I didn't think of searching the actual document.

You have nothing to apologize for. And that's the truth.

[skyking]

Ah sorry about that, I did copy and paste sentences into google to see if he was spamming other forums but nothing came up. I didn't think of searching the actual document.

You have nothing to apologize for. And that's the truth.

thank you for doing the legwork, Will.

[brewerb]

Harold Camping employed exactly the same logic and methods to fix the date of the end of the world, which occurred with stopwatch precision on May 21, 2011, surprising everybody, with many survivors still floating in space to this day wondering what the hell happened.

The reliability of end-of-the-world prophets is very low...  LOL!  A millennia of them and we are still here.

I liked it when the hippies came hitchhiking thru town headed to Boulder CO in the late 60's. Apparently an asteroid was to hit earth and Boulder was one of the 'safe' places. Strange dressing, different smells and lots of free range boobies.

[Cavebear]

The reliability of end-of-the-world prophets is very low...  LOL!  A millennia of them and we are still here.

I liked it when the hippies came hitchhiking thru town headed to Boulder CO in the late 60's. Apparently an asteroid was to hit earth and Boulder was one of the 'safe' places. Strange dressing, different smells and lots of free range boobies.

As told in 'Hair' and displayed in 'Oh Calcutta'. Somehow, I missed out on that.

[brewerb]

In the first post, there was a link to a PDF file, which was removed.
To access the theory in the PDF:
- on the site pdfhost.io, search for The_Probability_of_the_Existence_of_the_Christian_God
- on X (Twitter) @HowDoWeStopWars, there is a tweet with the link

[Alan V]

The probability of the existence of the Christian God: ZERO.

[skyking]

that kind of post deserves a preemptive ban-hammer.

[Mathilda]

that kind of post deserves a preemptive ban-hammer.

Yeah thought the chew toy was going to be fun but he's not even replying. I'll ban him if he doesn't bother engaging in discussion.

[rocinantexyz]

The coincidences can be used to estimate the probability of the existence of the Christian God.

I don't believe that is possible. Could you show your work?

[neutral]

GIVE US THE NAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEM! WHAT IS THE ANTI-CHRIST'S NAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAME?

The antichrist is not a person. Read chapter 11, page 35.

You cannot jump in the middle of a theory and complain that it has no sense. Read from the beginning and stop at the first part that you do not agree with.

[neutral]

Yeah thought the chew toy was going to be fun but he's not even replying. I'll ban him if he doesn't bother engaging in discussion.

I am not the one who refuses to start/continue a discussion. The post contains 3 questions that nobody bothers to answer.

[neutral]

I don't believe that is possible. Could you show your work?

See post 21 on this thread to find out how to get the theory.

[Deesse23]

Yeah thought the chew toy was going to be fun but he's not even replying. I'll ban him if he doesn't bother engaging in discussion.

I am not the one who refuses to start/continue a discussion. The post contains 3 questions that nobody bothers to answer.

Why would we feed a stupid christian conspiracy troll?

[neutral]

Let's start with organized crime.
What does organized crime has to do with religion? In peacetime, organized crime is the state of maximum illegality and evilness. Religion is the fight between good and evil.
And below is a connection between organized crime and atheism.

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

"The UNODC report estimates that the total amount of criminal proceeds generated in 2009, excluding those derived from tax evasion, may have been approximately $2.1 trillion."

Wikipedia The_World's_Billionaires

2010
"The combined net worth of the list was $3.6 trillion, up 50 percent from 2009's $2.4 trillion"

2020
"In the 34th annual Forbes list of the world's billionaires, the list included 2,095 billionaires with a total net wealth of $8 trillion"

2023
"In the 37th annual Forbes list of the world's billionaires, the list included 2,640 billionaires with a total net wealth of $12.2 trillion"

If we add up the profits obtained by organized crime over many decades, they will exceed the wealth of all billionaires in the world. (See the theory for more precise estimate of the profits obtained by organized crime)

The fact is that there are no billionaires from illegal activities. We consider facts only credible sources of information, in this case Forbes. The problem is that it is not enough to find 10 or 20 hidden illicit billionaires, we have to find hundreds/thousands of them.

There are two types of actors: private actors and state actors. If it is not private, it means that it is a state actor. If such huge illegal profits cannot be traced back to the world’s private property, this means they were obtained and used by the states.

The fact is that Western states were the ones who organized drug trafficking in the past. (see opium wars)

To affirm that Western states are involved in illegal activities is a conspiracy theory, by definition. Let's overcome the initial, natural repulsion that a rational human has for conspiracy theories and see if the conspiracy is true or false.

Let’s consider that states are not involved in illegal business. Because organized crime is richer than all the legal billionaires in the world, it is the main force in the global economy. In this case, we ended with another conspiracy theory. We could go further and say that because economic power is the dominant force of political power, organized crime is the dominant political power, meaning they control the states. But since this requires another point to prove (that economic power is the dominant force of politics), we will affirm only that organized crime is the main force of the global economy.

Are the (Western) states involved in illegal activities? is a yes or no question. If we say yes, we have a conspiracy theory. Saying no, means that organized crime is the main force of the global economy, another conspiracy theory. Logically, at least one of the conspiracy theories is true. There is no alternative, there is no third answer to a question that has only two options (yes/no). We have to accept that one of the conspiracy theories is true, so which one could it be?

In a very simplistic view, the question "Does God exist?" separates people into two categories. Rational people who require proofs and "irrational/believers" who base their views not exclusively on reason and facts. In the same way, "Are the (Western) states involved in illegal activities?" separates people into two categories (including atheists). The rational atheist will respond "Yes" because there are at least 2 facts that support this version: states in the past were the ones who organized drug trafficking, and today there are no hundreds/thousands of known billionaires from illegal activities, according to Forbes. In contrast, the "irrational" atheist will respond "No" because he ignores the fact that there is no credible evidence (Forbes) that many illegal billionaires exist or that organized crime is the main force of the global economy, and he bases his view of the world on common sense, on what he believes, rather than facts.

If we have to choose between two conspiracy theories, we have to choose the one that has the most facts that tend to support it. If the (Western) states are not involved in illegal activities, then we have to find evidence that the huge private wealth of organized crime exists. We are talking about a wealth of thousands of billions of dollars, and there are 0 facts to support it.
In the end, we have the answer "Yes" supported by 2 facts, and "No" supported by 0 facts.

So, what is your answer to these questions:
Are the (Western) states involved in illegal activities? (Yes/No)
On what facts did you base your answer? (If your answer is No then you have to provide evidence that the huge private wealth of organized crime exists.)
Do you agree that, no matter if the answer is Yes or No, the world is dominated by criminals?

[Mathilda]

Yeah thought the chew toy was going to be fun but he's not even replying. I'll ban him if he doesn't bother engaging in discussion.

I am not the one who refuses to start/continue a discussion. The post contains 3 questions that nobody bothers to answer.

What three questions?

Pose them here and I'm sure someone will be helpful enough to answer them.

[AutisticWill]

GIVE US THE NAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEM! WHAT IS THE ANTI-CHRIST'S NAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAME?

The antichrist is not a person. Read chapter 11, page 35.

You cannot jump in the middle of a theory and complain that it has no sense. Read from the beginning and stop at the first part that you do not agree with.

I could tell from reading the first page that the entire document was probably nonsense. I'm not tempted to read the whole thing.

[AutisticWill]

I tried making coffee this afternoon.

I ground the beans fresh; they were a Peruvian single source medium roast.

I ground the beans course, as is required by my brewing method, a French-Press.

I ground two tablespoons of coffee for one pot of water; I realize that most people would consider that weak, but I find most people's coffee is too strong for me.

I boiled fresh water in an electric kettle. 212 degrees Fahrenheit.

I poured the boiling hot water on the grinds straight away and brewed for three minutes.

All of the above is what I normally do.

But the coffee came out VERY weak, a little bitter, and oily.

What went wrong?

And by the way, what I just wrote is far easier to understand then Neutral's whole conspiracy theory shit. And the solution to my problem may actually benefit Mankind. Or at least me.......

[Deesse23]

In peacetime, organized crime is the state of maximum illegality and evilness.

Nope

Religion is the fight between good and evil.

aaaaaaaaaaand: nope

And that was just the first paragraph of your nonsense!

[TheGentlemanBastard]

Yeah thought the chew toy was going to be fun but he's not even replying. I'll ban him if he doesn't bother engaging in discussion.

I am not the one who refuses to start/continue a discussion. The post contains 3 questions that nobody bothers to answer.

There's a gulf greater than the Grand Canyon between engaging in discussion and shit-posting. So far, you're on the wrong side of that gulf.

[TheGentlemanBastard]

I tried making coffee this afternoon.

I ground the beans fresh; they were a Peruvian single source medium roast.

I ground the beans course, as is required by my brewing method, a French-Press.

I ground two tablespoons of coffee for one pot of water; I realize that most people would consider that weak, but I find most people's coffee is too strong for me.

I boiled fresh water in an electric kettle. 212 degrees Fahrenheit.

I poured the boiling hot water on the grinds straight away and brewed for three minutes.

All of the above is what I normally do.

But the coffee came out VERY weak, a little bitter, and oily.

What went wrong?

And by the way, what I just wrote is far easier to understand then Neutral's whole conspiracy theory shit. And the solution to my problem may actually benefit Mankind. Or at least me.......

(my bold)

You're not cold brewing your coffee and heating it before you drink it?!? 

[AutisticWill]

You're not cold brewing your coffee and heating it before you drink it?!? 

Is that something I should do, or just a lighthearted joke? : )

[Astreja]

I am not the one who refuses to start/continue a discussion. The post contains 3 questions that nobody bothers to answer.

These questions?

There are only two options:
option A: (Western) states are involved in illegal activities.
option B: (Western) states are not involved in illegal activities, in which case organized crime is the main force in the global economy.
Which option do you think is the correct one? More importantly, what facts do you base your choice on? Do you agree that, in both options, the world is ruled by criminals?

False dichotomy.  There are multiple options and for the moment I'll go with "Various states in both the East and West, and organized crime, likely both play a role in the global economy.  Without actually naming names and crunching a lot of data, however, it is not possible to determine how much of a role they play.  It is therefore premature to declare 'the world is ruled by criminals.'"

And none of the above has anything meaningful to say about whether or not gods exist.  Until I receive data that's up to my personal evidentiary standard - at a bare minimum, a physical encounter with an actual being that appears to have god-like powers - I'm not prepared to assign a probability of more than 0.000000000000000000000000001.

(Specifically regarding the god of the Bible, I'd take that probability and multiply it by itself a few times to get an even smaller probability.  The deity described in the Bible is absurdly incompetent and erratic, and is probably just a composite of multiple Middle Eastern deities and their respective myths.)

[AutisticWill]

False dichotomy.  There are multiple options and for the moment I'll go with "Various states in both the East and West, and organized crime, likely both play a role in the global economy.  Without actually naming names and crunching a lot of data, however, it is not possible to determine how much of a role they play.  It is therefore premature to declare 'the world is ruled by criminals.'"

And none of the above has anything meaningful to say about whether or not gods exist.  ...


...

A fascinating and complete take-down of the foundation of the entire conspiracy! Good job Astreja! ... but it was probably more work than it was worth; someone get this woman a cake, she deserves it!

---

William's Carrot Cake
     This cake is SO moist, it does not need frosting; besides, frosting might ruin the fine, adult, flavor.

[units are American]

Preheat oven to 350 degrees Fahrenheit; put 8 x 8 inch square, disposable, pan onto cookie sheet.

     1 cup all-purpose flour
     1 teaspoon baking soda
     quarter of a teaspoon salt; not coarse
     three-quarter teaspoons ground cinnamon
     three-quarter teaspoons ground clove
     5 fluid ounces STRONG flavored, quality, olive oil -- this is a must
     half cup granulated sugar
     half cup tightly packed dark-brown sugar -- NOT light-brown!
     1 teaspoon vanilla extract
     3 medium eggs
     1 drained CAN of carrots, blender-ized into a smooth paste, adding 1 cup fresh water as needed to lubricate the processes of blending; should make about 3 cups of paste
          optional: 1 cup coarsely chopped walnuts
          optional: 1 cup seedless raisins
          experimental: one and a half teaspoons of dried rosemary [should be no problem for the taste; but not sure if it adds anything worthwhile]

Mix everything together very fine; developing some gluten will help keep the cake together, so don't worry about that. Pour into pan.
Bake for 45 minutes; stick fork into middle of cake to check for doneness; top of cake will be sticky! bake ten more minutes if not done; then five more minutes if still not done.
Do not try to remove cake from pan in one piece; it will crumble. Keep cake pan on cookie sheet. Cool for one hour.

: P eaaaaaaaaaaaat iiiiiiiiiiiit! yum!

[brewerb]

The fact is that there are no billionaires from illegal activities. We consider facts only credible sources of information, in this case Forbes. The problem is that it is not enough to find 10 or 20 hidden illicit billionaires, we have to find hundreds/thousands of them.

I don't think Forbes searches out and reports on any individual or groups wealth that results from illegal activities. That means that when you compare Forbes list with the hundreds/thousands illicit billionaires in your assertion you've made an error in logic.

Just one of the many flaws. I'm sure others have and will point out more.

Nobody can argue a god(s) into existence. Please provide some concrete evidence. If your answer is 'I can't' then there is no god, christian or otherwise.

But you are fun, keep playing!