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Ukraine (Topical thread)

Ukraine (Topical thread)
(05-29-2023, 02:35 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:
(05-29-2023, 04:08 AM)Minimalist Wrote: But make the russkis think they are going to do one thing and then do something else?  Now that is a better approach.  The trick is where and can they assemble their attack force with enough secrecy to  attain a breakthrough?

This sort of stuff helps:

Quote:Another big item on the list of problems: satellites -- there are too few of them, and too few with high-quality capabilities.

According to experts and open-source information compiled by RFE/RL, Russia has long been saddled with a small and inadequate fleet of communications and surveillance satellites that in many cases rely on either outdated technology or imported parts that are now harder to come by due to Western sanctions.

[...]

“In principle, Russia is already practically blind in orbit, " said Bart Hendrix, a Brussels-based analyst and expert on Soviet and Russian space programs.

According to a database maintained by the Union of Concerned Scientists, a respected U.S. nongovernmental organization, Russia currently has around 100 military or dual-purpose satellites. Nineteen of them are classified as remote sensing satellites, with technology allowing either optical photography or radio signal surveillance. The others serve other purposes.

[...]

Russia has two optical reconnaissance satellites in orbit now, called Persona, Hendrix said, but they were launched between seven and nine years ago, meaning they may be near the end of their working life.

Adding further to the problem: The maximum resolution of the Persona satellites is believed to be 50 centimeters per pixel, Hendrix said.

[...]

Russia has also lagged behind in building and deploying remote-sensing satellites whose radars can see through cloud cover, unlike optical satellites.

According to the Union of Concerned Scientists’ database, Russia has only one confirmed radar satellite in operation, called Kondor. It was launched in 2014, and with an expected lifespan of five years, it may have already ceased to be operational.

In February, Russia’s space forces launched another satellite, dubbed Kosmos-2553 or Neutron. Little is known about its purpose or capabilities, though it was built by Mashinostroyeniye, a Moscow military research institute which specializes specifically in radar-sensing satellites.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-satellite...97618.html

Long story short, the Russians essentially have three, maybe four satellites they can use for intel. Further, inflatable decoys can be used to misdirect the Russians, as the Allies did in 1944:

[Image: tank-gonflable-seconde-guerre-mondiale-0...24x683.jpg]

And yes, the Ukrainians are using similar decoys already:

[Image: 20230422_EUP501.jpg]

Where can I buy stock in decoys? Smile
Never try to catch a dropped kitchen knife!
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
(05-29-2023, 02:37 PM)Cavebear Wrote:
(05-29-2023, 02:35 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: This sort of stuff helps:



https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-satellite...97618.html

Long story short, the Russians essentially have three, maybe four satellites they can use for intel. Further, inflatable decoys can be used to misdirect the Russians, as the Allies did in 1944:

[Image: tank-gonflable-seconde-guerre-mondiale-0...24x683.jpg]

And yes, the Ukrainians are using similar decoys already:

[Image: 20230422_EUP501.jpg]

Where can I buy stock in decoys?  Smile

That 'image' as is all 'imagery' around this whole caper is a decoy. Everything about this 'any minute now' counter offensive is a decoy. Ukraine has no intention of launching a counter offensive. Why would they?

Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.

Nop Bon:
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
The russkis had counted on having their state-of-the-art, hot-air filled, gas-bag, available to help them.  Sadly for them, he lost


[Image: 63e05e74e33c4000193b01a5?width=700]
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
(05-30-2023, 03:25 AM)Inkubus Wrote:
(05-29-2023, 02:37 PM)Cavebear Wrote: Where can I buy stock in decoys?  Smile

That 'image' as is all 'imagery' around this whole caper is a decoy. Everything about this 'any minute now' counter offensive is a decoy. Ukraine has no intention of launching a counter offensive. Why would they?

Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.

Nop Bon:

Operation Overlord involved a lot of decoys (and even a faked commanding General). And quite successfully it seems. Ever heard of "the man who wasn't there"? In the US Civil War, some Generals marched their soldiers around in a circle to appear more numerous. Others set up extra tents and lit fake campfires to the same purpose. Deception is an art of war.
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
Quote:In the US Civil War, some Generals marched their soldiers around in a circle to appear more numerous.


It didn't take much to fool George McClellan.
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
(05-30-2023, 04:02 AM)Minimalist Wrote:
Quote:In the US Civil War, some Generals marched their soldiers around in a circle to appear more numerous.


It didn't take much to fool George McClellan.

1. He was an army-builder and a good one. But he could never risk what he had built.
2. It was the Pinkertons. They counted every Confederate soldier 3X. And he believed them.
3. I love Grant! As Lee said "someday they are going to appoint a General I can't figure out". Or something like that. And his book is great reading. So clear and honest.
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
1.    Yes.  He would have made a great supply sergeant!
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
Quote:Authorities in Moscow said the Russian capital was attacked by drones Tuesday, accusing Ukraine of attacking civilian homes. Separately, Russia launched yet another pre-dawn air raid targeting Ukraine's capital, killing at least one person and again sending Kyiv's residents scrambling into shelters to escape a relentless wave of daylight and nighttime bombardments, Ukrainian officials said.

"This morning the Kyiv regime carried out a terrorist attack with drones on targets in the city of Moscow. Eight drones were used in the attack. All of the enemy drones were downed," Russia's defense ministry said on social media Tuesday.

"We have spoken about hitting command centers in Ukraine," Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday, neglecting to mention the other targets his military has hit for months, including civilian homes and other infrastructure. "In response, the Kyiv regime has chosen a different path, the path of trying to frighten Russia, frighten the citizens of Russia and of strikes on residential buildings." 

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the apparent drone attack on Moscow, but it comes after a rise in attacks on Russian soil, mostly targeting security and energy infrastructure, claimed by dissident Russian groups.

Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of attempted drone attacks on capitals Moscow and Kyiv - CBS News
[Image: color%5D%5Bcolor=#333333%5D%5Bsize=small%5D%5Bfont=T...ans-Serif%5D]
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
(05-30-2023, 05:16 PM)Dom Wrote:
Quote:Authorities in Moscow said the Russian capital was attacked by drones Tuesday, accusing Ukraine of attacking civilian homes. Separately, Russia launched yet another pre-dawn air raid targeting Ukraine's capital, killing at least one person and again sending Kyiv's residents scrambling into shelters to escape a relentless wave of daylight and nighttime bombardments, Ukrainian officials said.

"This morning the Kyiv regime carried out a terrorist attack with drones on targets in the city of Moscow. Eight drones were used in the attack. All of the enemy drones were downed," Russia's defense ministry said on social media Tuesday.

"We have spoken about hitting command centers in Ukraine," Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday, neglecting to mention the other targets his military has hit for months, including civilian homes and other infrastructure. "In response, the Kyiv regime has chosen a different path, the path of trying to frighten Russia, frighten the citizens of Russia and of strikes on residential buildings." 

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the apparent drone attack on Moscow, but it comes after a rise in attacks on Russian soil, mostly targeting security and energy infrastructure, claimed by dissident Russian groups.

Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of attempted drone attacks on capitals Moscow and Kyiv - CBS News

Funny how drone attacks on Kyiv are wartime operations, while drone attacks on Moscow are "terrorist attacks".

The doctor doesn't seem to like the prescription he has himself ordered.
On hiatus.
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
How likely is this attack on Russia to be done by internal factions hoping to either escalate the war or target Putin’s political positions? I’m having a hard but not impossible time figuring out how this would be a Ukrainian attack…to what end? The last thing Ukraine wants is to motivate Russians to enlist. What am I not seeing or is it just unknown at this point?
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
(05-30-2023, 07:20 PM)pattylt Wrote: How likely is this attack on Russia to be done by internal factions hoping to either escalate the war or target Putin’s political positions?  I’m having a hard but not impossible time figuring out how this would be a Ukrainian attack…to what end?  The last thing Ukraine wants is to motivate Russians to enlist.  What am I not seeing or is it just unknown at this point?

Seems to be unknown.
[Image: color%5D%5Bcolor=#333333%5D%5Bsize=small%5D%5Bfont=T...ans-Serif%5D]
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
(05-30-2023, 07:20 PM)pattylt Wrote: How likely is this attack on Russia to be done by internal factions hoping to either escalate the war or target Putin’s political positions?  I’m having a hard but not impossible time figuring out how this would be a Ukrainian attack…to what end?  The last thing Ukraine wants is to motivate Russians to enlist.  What am I not seeing or is it just unknown at this point?

Some reports indicate eight drones, which could be a plausible scenario for an internal, domestic attack. Other reports indicate up to 25 drones, which would likely be beyond the scope of internal dissidents and more likely a result of Ukrainian operations.

Given that neither number has solid sourcing, it's hard to draw any conclusions. I would say that the targeting would indicate a domestic source. These drones seem to have been aimed at the posh neighborhoods of Moscow, rather than military resources. There are many Russian supply depots far closer to any putative Ukrainian launch-points. I would assume that if these were Ukrainian drones, they would be aimed at combat-support assets rather than what seems to be an obvious political targeting design.

For this reason, I suspect that 1) the number of drones is smaller than the Russians claim with "25", and 2) that smaller number and targeting theme indicates internal Russian dissenters.

All of this is, of course, only a guess. But If I had 25 drones in, say, Kharkiv, I'd be aiming them at supply depots in advance of my planned offensive, not forcing them to navigate 750km of Russian air defenses.
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
(05-30-2023, 09:36 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:
(05-30-2023, 07:20 PM)pattylt Wrote: How likely is this attack on Russia to be done by internal factions hoping to either escalate the war or target Putin’s political positions?  I’m having a hard but not impossible time figuring out how this would be a Ukrainian attack…to what end?  The last thing Ukraine wants is to motivate Russians to enlist.  What am I not seeing or is it just unknown at this point?

Some reports indicate eight drones, which could be a plausible scenario for an internal, domestic attack. Other reports indicate up to 25 drones, which would likely be beyond the scope of internal dissidents and more likely a result of Ukrainian operations.

Given that neither number has solid sourcing, it's hard to draw any conclusions. I would say that the targeting would indicate a domestic source. These drones seem to have been aimed at the posh neighborhoods of Moscow, rather than military resources. There are many Russian supply depots far closer to any putative Ukrainian launch-points. I would assume that if these were Ukrainian drones, they would be aimed at combat-support assets rather than what seems to be an obvious political targeting design.

For this reason, I suspect that 1) the number of drones is smaller than the Russians claim with "25", and 2) that smaller number and targeting theme indicates internal Russian dissenters.

All of this is, of course, only a guess. But If I had 25 drones in, say, Kharkiv, I'd be aiming them at supply depots in advance of my planned offensive, not forcing them to navigate 750km of Russian air defenses.

This is my impression as well.  Ukraine isn’t likely to waste drones hitting some upscale residences.  Russia has already had a drone hit the Kremlin, correct?  I heard 6 drones but I still don’t picture Ukraine wasting any asset that isn’t a military target.  This seems like a hit to stir up Russians.  I’m just not sure to what end.  I guess it depends on who fired them.  I know a lot of Russians play the patriot game in public and there are many against the war that never speak out.  I guess this is a wait and see situation.
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
(05-30-2023, 10:04 PM)pattylt Wrote: This is my impression as well.  Ukraine isn’t likely to waste drones hitting some upscale residences.  Russia has already had a drone hit the Kremlin, correct?  I heard 6 drones but I still don’t picture Ukraine wasting any asset that isn’t a military target.  This seems like a hit to stir up Russians.  I’m just not sure to what end.  I guess it depends on who fired them.  I know a lot of Russians play the patriot game in public and there are many against the war that never speak out.  I guess this is a wait and see situation.

Yeah, it's up in the air and no reputable source will confirm any facts. Ukraine's targeting has always seemed less political and more operational, but who's to say?

As for the attack on the Kremlin, apparently two hit, but even the provenance of that "attack" is open to question, Ukrainian, domestic, or even false-flag.
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
It's like 600 miles from Ukraine to Moscow.  Does Ukraine even have a drone with that kind of range?
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
I'm guessing it's Russian ex-soldiers turned during the war and taking it home.

But I'm just making a wild guess that seems plausible to me.
[Image: color%5D%5Bcolor=#333333%5D%5Bsize=small%5D%5Bfont=T...ans-Serif%5D]
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
Well, a handful of Ukrainians crossing the border to attack Belgorod would seem to be a suicide mission and they don't seem to be the type for that.
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
(05-30-2023, 11:50 PM)Minimalist Wrote: It's like 600 miles from Ukraine to Moscow.  Does Ukraine even have a drone with that kind of range?

UJ-22 has a 1000-mile range. Bayraktar, upwards of 2400 miles. Both could reach Moscow from Ukrainian ground. Those are the two I know of, perhaps more?
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
(05-31-2023, 01:01 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:
(05-30-2023, 11:50 PM)Minimalist Wrote: It's like 600 miles from Ukraine to Moscow.  Does Ukraine even have a drone with that kind of range?

UJ-22 has a 1000-mile range. Bayraktar, upwards of 2400 miles. Both could reach Moscow from Ukrainian ground. Those are the two I know of, perhaps more?

I don't think Ukraine would do that, it would piss off its many donors and that is the last thing they want to do.
[Image: color%5D%5Bcolor=#333333%5D%5Bsize=small%5D%5Bfont=T...ans-Serif%5D]
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
(05-31-2023, 01:01 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:
(05-30-2023, 11:50 PM)Minimalist Wrote: It's like 600 miles from Ukraine to Moscow.  Does Ukraine even have a drone with that kind of range?

UJ-22 has a 1000-mile range. Bayraktar, upwards of 2400 miles. Both could reach Moscow from Ukrainian ground. Those are the two I know of, perhaps more?

You know, just for the hell of it I went looking for the specs on those two systems and they are all over the chart.  Range and payload seem to vary greatly depending on the source material.  I imagine that how they are equipped has a great deal to do with that but still they seem to have a somewhat limited payload.

So.... were I a Ukrainian strategist, what would I do?  Would I sacrifice a couple of drones on a rather pointless terror attack against a heavily defended target...where the cameras could get nice pictures of them, or, would I look to hit a tank farm or power plant where I could get a lot more bang for my buck and still send the same message?

I know what I'd do.
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
(05-31-2023, 10:15 PM)Minimalist Wrote:
(05-31-2023, 01:01 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: UJ-22 has a 1000-mile range. Bayraktar, upwards of 2400 miles. Both could reach Moscow from Ukrainian ground. Those are the two I know of, perhaps more?

You know, just for the hell of it I went looking for the specs on those two systems and they are all over the chart.  Range and payload seem to vary greatly depending on the source material.  I imagine that how they are equipped has a great deal to do with that but still they seem to have a somewhat limited payload.

So.... were I a Ukrainian strategist, what would I do?  Would I sacrifice a couple of drones on a rather pointless terror attack against a heavily defended target...where the cameras could get nice pictures of them, or, would I look to hit a tank farm or power plant where I could get a lot more bang for my buck and still send the same message?

I know what I'd do.

Pretty much as I wrote upthread, yeah.
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
It's a no-brainer, really.  The russkis have been wasting resources on terror tactics since the beginning but the Ukrainians don't have the resources for that.  They need to make it count.
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
(05-31-2023, 10:48 PM)Minimalist Wrote: It's a no-brainer, really.  The russkis have been wasting resources on terror tactics since the beginning but the Ukrainians don't have the resources for that.  They need to make it count.

Exactly why I don't think they're behind it.
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
They may be of some support to the Russians I think are doing it. Like I said, the donors in the west do not want this, and Ukraine doesn't want to piss them off.
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Ukraine (Topical thread)
Rally near Berlin at the weekend. Scholz making a speech and suddenly hecklers started shouting and booing at him, accusisng him of being a "warmonger".

Scholz, usually a rather soft spoken man seems to have snapped and shouted back:


Quote:The warmonger is Putin. He invaded Ukraine with 200k soldiers. He is risking the lifes of his own citizens for an imperialistic dream. Putin wants to destroy and conquer Ukraine. He also has others already in his crosshairs. This is something we, as friends of freedom, as democrats, as europeans, will not allow to happen.

While you are shouting "peace without weapons" (popular slogan in germany) Putin pulled together a massive amount of tanks, cruise missiles and rockets and aimed it at Ukraine. He is destroying cities, villages, highways and railways. And he killed countless citizens, children and elderly in Ukraine.

That is murder, to say it very clear.

In his imperialistic dream of might, he (Putin) risks the lifes of his own citizens. We do not know how many young russian soldiers had to die for his dream, but it might be up to 100-150k. How can one waste the lifes of their own young people in that way? All just because one (Putin) wants to be a great man. That is irresponsible, that is warmongering. That is violence WITH weapons (with reference to the crown chanting "peace without weapons").


R.I.P. Hannes
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