Climate Change

[Inkubus]

Per a CNN article:

A vital system of ocean currents could collapse within a few decades if the world continues to pump out planet-heating pollution, scientists are warning – an event that would be catastrophic for global weather and “affect every person on the planet.”

A new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature, found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current – of which the Gulf Stream is a part – could collapse around the middle of the century, or even as early as 2025.

****

It’s been clear for a while that the AMOC will weaken in the coming decades.... In 2021, a study found the AMOC was showing signs of instability due to climate change.  But until now, we haven’t had a time frame.

The new study “provides a novel analysis that focuses on when the AMOC tipping point will occur,” de Menocal said, and the study’s prediction the collapse will occur around 2050 “is alarmingly soon given the globally disruptive impact of such an event.” Although, he added, it is important to note that there is no observational evidence yet that the AMOC is collapsing.

I would guess that would have the biggest impact on the weather in Europe.

Yep, Montreal and a few others on the east coast regularly freeze over in the winter but that hasn't happened in the UK since 1963, and that was just a wee bit off the Kent coast. If the gulf stream collapses the UK is fucked.

[Scoop]

look at what global warming did to the summarians. What we need is big volcano. Earth has been reality quiet the last few hundreds ms of a nice big temperature dropping geologic event.

[Chas]

I would guess that would have the biggest impact on the weather in Europe.

Yep, Montreal and a few others on the east coast regularly freeze over in the winter but that hasn't happened in the UK since 1963, and that was just a wee bit off the Kent coast. If the gulf stream collapses the UK is fucked.

Note that most of Western Europe is at or above the latitude of Labrador.  Non-Mediterranean Europe is fucked.

[Dom]

We are all going to perish from this anyway, hopefully. Because surviving in that mess doesn't sound attractive anyway. Better to go first rather than last.

[Alan V]

We are all going to perish from this anyway, hopefully. Because surviving in that mess doesn't sound attractive anyway. Better to go first rather than last.

Surviving generations will likely both envy us for what we had and hate us for what we did with it all.

But then, I've become a bit of a misanthropist.   

[Dom]

We are all going to perish from this anyway, hopefully. Because surviving in that mess doesn't sound attractive anyway. Better to go first rather than last.

Surviving generations will likely both envy us for what we had and hate us for what we did with it all.

But then, I've become a bit of a misanthropist.   

I would categorize that as realism.

[Cavebear]

I expect the world is going to become harder for humans in the upcoming few decades. A lot of us are going to just simply die from heat and food/water shortage. Large areas of the world will fail to to be "human-friendly". Some animals will go extinct and some of them might be important foods to us. And it is mostly by our own doing, so we have no one to blame but ourselves. Well, maybe a minority of ourselves... Some of us care about the long term and others just care about profits "next quarter".

But we seem to stumble by. We will find places to live. There might be a lot fewer of us, but I don't think that matters much. We will probably stay above the genetic diversity requirements.

[Alan V]

The question is always about timing. Will climate change progress so quickly that we will not be able to adapt, or slowly enough that we can adjust to the new conditions without huge dislocations?

The present-day immigration crises in various countries suggest that we (humanity as a whole) are already failing to adapt to changing conditions. Our political and economic systems are not geared to addressing such big problems, or perhaps even to acknowledging them quickly enough.

I don't see climate change as a threat to the survival of humanity as a species, but I certainly see it as a looming threat to our huge populations, political and economic systems, and ways of life in general (transportation systems, housing, farms, outdoor activities, etc.).

[Cavebear]

The question is always about timing.  Will climate change progress so quickly that we will not be able to adapt, or slowly enough that we can adjust to the new conditions without huge dislocations?  

The present-day immigration crises in various countries suggest that we (humanity as a whole) are already failing to adapt to changing conditions.  Our political and economic systems are not geared to addressing such big problems, or perhaps even to acknowledging them quickly enough.

I don't see climate change as a threat to the survival of humanity as a species, but I certainly see it as a looming threat to our huge populations, political and economic systems, and ways of life in general (transportation systems, housing, farms, outdoor activities, etc.).

I see a conflict in "The present-day immigration crises in various countries suggest that we (humanity as a whole) are already failing to adapt to changing conditions" and "I don't see climate change as a threat to the survival of humanity as a species". I grant that those are slightly different. Would you like to discuss the 2 ideas further?

[Alan V]

I see a conflict in "The present-day immigration crises in various countries suggest that we (humanity as a whole) are already failing to adapt to changing conditions" and "I don't see climate change as a threat to the survival of humanity as a species".  I grant that those are slightly different.  Would you like to discuss the 2 ideas further?

Climate change increases immigration, and will increase it even more in the future as more and more people become climate refugees.  It seems we are at just the beginning of what is to come, and we are already struggling to cope.  Just wait until the sea level rises enough that people are forced to move away from the water as well as away from excessive heat and drought. 

I assume more and more countries will fail, especially those with limited resources and too many people.  Certain countries like Canada and Russia should do much better, at least relatively for a while.

I also assume that people will be having fewer children in the coming decades, as it becomes increasingly difficult to afford them.  So our current populations could simply and naturally die out to a large extent before climate change heat and drought threatens to kill them anyway.  It all depends on the timing, as I mentioned.  We will be adjusting our populations downwards to fit the new conditions, whether willingly or by conflict and disaster. 

At some time in the future, fewer people will be producing less greenhouse gas emissions, to the point where natural processes can deal with them and the earth will reach an equilibrium again.  Chances are good that the carrying capacity of the planet will have been severely decreased by environmental damage and change, but it won't be gone altogether. Unlike on Venus, runaway climate change is not possible on earth because of the oceans.

[SYZ]

Negotiators at this year’s United Nations climate summit, known
as COP29, struck an agreement early yesterday to help developing
countries adopt cleaner energy and cope with the effects of climate
change. Under the deal, wealthy nations pledged to reach $300b
per year in support by 2035, up from a current target of $100b.

But as soon as the deal was declared done, it was immediately
assailed as inadequate by a string of delegates. Independent
experts have placed the needs of developing countries at $1.3tr
per year, much higher than was promised under the agreement.

The US election result was a major topic of conversation at COP29.
Trump has called climate change a hoax, and pledged to pull out
of the Paris climate accord.

In a FOX interview in 2022, Trump told host Stuart Varney that
climate change is "a hoax". He said "in my opinion, you have a
thing(?) called weather, and you go up, and you go down", he said.
"If you look into the 1920s, they(?) were talking about a global
freezing, okay? In other words, the globe was going to freeze".

"And then they(?) go global warming", Trump continued. "Then
they(?) couldn’t use that because the temperatures were actually
quite cool".

   I'm truly horrified that this ignorant buffoon will soon be leading
   the world's most powerful (for the moment) country, with his finger
   on the red button, and the commander of 2.86m military personnel.
   
   The rest of the world needs to be concerned, and the American public
   need to be on critically high alert for the fate of their democracy.

[Alan V]

To respond adequately to climate change required humanity to take action long before it became an increasingly obvious problem, because of the inertia building up in the system.

That always offered a space of time for some demagogue to come along and tell people what they would rather believe: that there is nothing to worry about, that it's all political.

The U.S. just had an election in which climate change was not a high priority for most voters. They reelected the demagogue.

Without any sense of urgency, it's probably too late to deal with climate change adequately. Future people will suffer the consequences, and they won't remember us fondly.

[Dexta]

I'll remember you, Alan V, as being one who, like I, spoke up loudly, eloquently and empathetically on the issue on innumerable occasions and platforms. The dumb psychos are many, we are few....perhaps there's still hope and we can share a boozy drink together one day.

[Dexta]

Global warming - I think there's a pretty simple solution to the emissions problem.

1. Tax very polluting activities to the hilt.

2. Use the vast amount of tax revenue generated by that to fund a universal basic income, or a status adjusted universal basic income, so that the "unemployment" caused by the downturn in supply and demand for goods and services, caused by the tax hikes, needn't hurt.

Voila!

[Dānu]

So long, it's been good to know ya.

[Rhythmcs]

It's interesting that the needs of the developing world come in at about the same amount of cash we quantifiably dump into fossil fuel subsidies.

[SYZ]

Well, this has to be the silliest waste of newsprint
I've seen in a long time.  I wonder how much CO₂
it generated LOL.

Researchers have calculated the greenhouse gas
impact from a single knee replacement. A three-hour
operation has similar emissions compared to a 914km
car trip. Anaesthesia contributed to about 11% of the
emissions while 9% came from the air conditioning
and lighting for the operation room.

But 80% of emissions were associated with elements
of the surgery itself including reusable equipment, single
use materials and the knee prosthesis itself.

 —https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2024.../104543314

[pattylt]

As someone who had a total knee replacement 15 years ago, I apologize. On the other hand, I was able to finish my career and can still walk so, I’m not that sorry.

I think we need to tackle the big contributors to climate change before looking into all the other contributors and, somehow, the money lost has to be more than the money gained by those profiting at ignoring and/or downplaying the issue.

[Rhythmcs]

Medical use is a shoe in for anything resembling a credible carbon budget, one would imagine. There's a huge opportunity to take big bites out of our problem right now in new home construction. Seven million homes short. Seven million homes that aren't just a good place to put efficient appliances, but to boost appropriate construction materials and revise codes and create all of those small local business opportunities we love so much. Chances to plan for denser and more walkable communities. Chances to address food deserts and food miles.

[Fireball]

"Walkable Communities"? My chump-supporting neighbor would like to bend your ear about the evils of 15-minute cities.   He is convinced it's a liberal plot to control us all. I've explained it, but he has TDS. I can actually walk to the grocery store. I once walked to the auto parts store and carried home shock absorbers for my car. I'd still do those things if the feckin' arthritis would check out. I went to urgent care with excruciating knee pain, and the doctor used the term "flare up". Yeah, it's a progressive disease. Currently "controlled" by steroids. I'll take a knee replacement for 987 miles of travel, Alex. Would that be miles in my econobox (40+ MPG) or my old truck (10 MPG)? I don't trust any rhetoric that talks about how many miles a car traveled as a metric for cost, any more  than I trust a metric that uses giraffes as a measure of the size of an asteroid.

[Rhythmcs]

Like most everything else..these are things that magats want regardless of what they've been trained to blurt out on prompt. New developments aren't competing with each other on the basis that it's impossible to walk anywhere or that it's far from everything except dollar stores specifically.

[Fireball]

Of course, walking where I live is an exercise in dodging the crazy drivers. I used to ride my bike for miles around the city and surrounding hills. But after some close calls and getting hit once (just the tip of a handlebar, fortunately) I decided that it just wasn't worth it.

[Antonio]

Humans have been degrading their habitat for a long time . The dangers of that behavior are well known and documented.

Changing course is highly improbable .

[pattylt]

Humans  have been degrading their habitat for a long time . The dangers of that behavior are well known and documented.

Changing course is highly improbable .

True, and long term, self correcting.  Massive die offs of humans and animals will eventually right this ship called Earth since the earth doesn’t really care if we tackle the issue or not.  

I even expect humanity will survive just in much smaller numbers.  What’s pathetic is that we humans will get to watch all this in horror, wondering why no one stopped the destruction or corrected the problems.  For all our “higher intelligence “, we are stupid and self centered.  I suspect there are quite a few humans that look forward to the decrease in competition for resources and have no problem knowing that the most devastated populations will be the poor and marginalized economies.  Scorched earth appeals to some…

[Antonio]

Humans  have been degrading their habitat for a long time . The dangers of that behavior are well known and documented.

Changing course is highly improbable .

True, and long term, self correcting.  Massive die offs of humans and animals will eventually right this ship called Earth since the earth doesn’t really care if we tackle the issue or not.  

I even expect humanity will survive just in much smaller numbers.  What’s pathetic is that we humans will get to watch all this in horror, wondering why no one stopped the destruction or corrected the problems.  For all our “higher intelligence “, we are stupid and self centered.  I suspect there are quite a few humans that look forward to the decrease in competition for resources and have no problem knowing that the most devastated populations will be the poor and marginalized economies.  Scorched earth appeals to some…

The "higher intelligence" always makes me laugh . How phony on so many levels.