Climate Change

[Inkubus]

Per a CNN article:

A vital system of ocean currents could collapse within a few decades if the world continues to pump out planet-heating pollution, scientists are warning – an event that would be catastrophic for global weather and “affect every person on the planet.”

A new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature, found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current – of which the Gulf Stream is a part – could collapse around the middle of the century, or even as early as 2025.

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It’s been clear for a while that the AMOC will weaken in the coming decades.... In 2021, a study found the AMOC was showing signs of instability due to climate change.  But until now, we haven’t had a time frame.

The new study “provides a novel analysis that focuses on when the AMOC tipping point will occur,” de Menocal said, and the study’s prediction the collapse will occur around 2050 “is alarmingly soon given the globally disruptive impact of such an event.” Although, he added, it is important to note that there is no observational evidence yet that the AMOC is collapsing.

I would guess that would have the biggest impact on the weather in Europe.

Yep, Montreal and a few others on the east coast regularly freeze over in the winter but that hasn't happened in the UK since 1963, and that was just a wee bit off the Kent coast. If the gulf stream collapses the UK is fucked.

[Scoop]

look at what global warming did to the summarians. What we need is big volcano. Earth has been reality quiet the last few hundreds ms of a nice big temperature dropping geologic event.

[Chas]

I would guess that would have the biggest impact on the weather in Europe.

Yep, Montreal and a few others on the east coast regularly freeze over in the winter but that hasn't happened in the UK since 1963, and that was just a wee bit off the Kent coast. If the gulf stream collapses the UK is fucked.

Note that most of Western Europe is at or above the latitude of Labrador.  Non-Mediterranean Europe is fucked.

[Dom]

We are all going to perish from this anyway, hopefully. Because surviving in that mess doesn't sound attractive anyway. Better to go first rather than last.

[Alan V]

We are all going to perish from this anyway, hopefully. Because surviving in that mess doesn't sound attractive anyway. Better to go first rather than last.

Surviving generations will likely both envy us for what we had and hate us for what we did with it all.

But then, I've become a bit of a misanthropist.   

[Dom]

We are all going to perish from this anyway, hopefully. Because surviving in that mess doesn't sound attractive anyway. Better to go first rather than last.

Surviving generations will likely both envy us for what we had and hate us for what we did with it all.

But then, I've become a bit of a misanthropist.   

I would categorize that as realism.

[Cavebear]

I expect the world is going to become harder for humans in the upcoming few decades. A lot of us are going to just simply die from heat and food/water shortage. Large areas of the world will fail to to be "human-friendly". Some animals will go extinct and some of them might be important foods to us. And it is mostly by our own doing, so we have no one to blame but ourselves. Well, maybe a minority of ourselves... Some of us care about the long term and others just care about profits "next quarter".

But we seem to stumble by. We will find places to live. There might be a lot fewer of us, but I don't think that matters much. We will probably stay above the genetic diversity requirements.

[Alan V]

The question is always about timing. Will climate change progress so quickly that we will not be able to adapt, or slowly enough that we can adjust to the new conditions without huge dislocations?

The present-day immigration crises in various countries suggest that we (humanity as a whole) are already failing to adapt to changing conditions. Our political and economic systems are not geared to addressing such big problems, or perhaps even to acknowledging them quickly enough.

I don't see climate change as a threat to the survival of humanity as a species, but I certainly see it as a looming threat to our huge populations, political and economic systems, and ways of life in general (transportation systems, housing, farms, outdoor activities, etc.).

[Cavebear]

The question is always about timing.  Will climate change progress so quickly that we will not be able to adapt, or slowly enough that we can adjust to the new conditions without huge dislocations?  

The present-day immigration crises in various countries suggest that we (humanity as a whole) are already failing to adapt to changing conditions.  Our political and economic systems are not geared to addressing such big problems, or perhaps even to acknowledging them quickly enough.

I don't see climate change as a threat to the survival of humanity as a species, but I certainly see it as a looming threat to our huge populations, political and economic systems, and ways of life in general (transportation systems, housing, farms, outdoor activities, etc.).

I see a conflict in "The present-day immigration crises in various countries suggest that we (humanity as a whole) are already failing to adapt to changing conditions" and "I don't see climate change as a threat to the survival of humanity as a species". I grant that those are slightly different. Would you like to discuss the 2 ideas further?

[Alan V]

I see a conflict in "The present-day immigration crises in various countries suggest that we (humanity as a whole) are already failing to adapt to changing conditions" and "I don't see climate change as a threat to the survival of humanity as a species".  I grant that those are slightly different.  Would you like to discuss the 2 ideas further?

Climate change increases immigration, and will increase it even more in the future as more and more people become climate refugees.  It seems we are at just the beginning of what is to come, and we are already struggling to cope.  Just wait until the sea level rises enough that people are forced to move away from the water as well as away from excessive heat and drought. 

I assume more and more countries will fail, especially those with limited resources and too many people.  Certain countries like Canada and Russia should do much better, at least relatively for a while.

I also assume that people will be having fewer children in the coming decades, as it becomes increasingly difficult to afford them.  So our current populations could simply and naturally die out to a large extent before climate change heat and drought threatens to kill them anyway.  It all depends on the timing, as I mentioned.  We will be adjusting our populations downwards to fit the new conditions, whether willingly or by conflict and disaster. 

At some time in the future, fewer people will be producing less greenhouse gas emissions, to the point where natural processes can deal with them and the earth will reach an equilibrium again.  Chances are good that the carrying capacity of the planet will have been severely decreased by environmental damage and change, but it won't be gone altogether. Unlike on Venus, runaway climate change is not possible on earth because of the oceans.