The "myth" of the dying church

[Paleophyte]

And according to the authors of the 2008 ARIS, Drich's source:

Generation X Becoming Less Christian, Less Republican; Catholic and Baptist Losses feed Religious Polarization

"Members of Generation X – the 35 million Americans born between 1965 and 1972 – have become less Christian and less Republican over the course of their adult lives, a new study by Trinity College shows. Striking declines in the number of Catholics and Baptists combined with sharp increases in the number of non-denominational Christians and those claiming no religious affiliation (Nones) show increased religious polarization in this generation, even as its political re-orientation towards the Democratic Party has been accompanied by modest growth in the number of political independents."

[Paleophyte]

Complete bullshit, as per his usual.
https://www.pewforum.org/2015/11/03/u-s-...rls_ii-84/

again polls mean nothing compared to the census. we have 2 modern data points and we need the 2020 census to be certain.

You have no Census data. That's a survey you're citing.

[Drich]

I'm not using a cross section poll here my good man. these are offical US numbers. this is where they literally ask every single house hold (among other things) what they believe about God!

It's "household", not "house hold".
Since your English is so poor, you really should learn how to do a spell check.
Those who represent the gods should at least be able to write a correct sentence in English.  

Scientific sampling techniques are reliable within their range of uncertainty.
Obviously you know nothing about polling or sampling or probability.

From The United States Census
https://ask.census.gov/prweb/PRServletCu...D=KCP-5050

"Does the Census Bureau have data for religion?
The Census Bureau conducted censuses of religious bodies at 10-year intervals from 1906 through 1936. The results were published with statistics on topics such as the number of members in congregations, number of church edifices, seating capacity, value and debt on church property, and so forth. The census publications varied with the first two having volumes of reports and the 1926 and 1936 censuses releasing a Summary report and a second volume made up of individual reports on the denominations listed in the census. See our detailed listing of reports from past censuses (1790 on).

There also was a survey of religious affiliation done as part of the Current Population Survey in 1957 with the results published in a report entitled, "Religion Report by the Civilian Population of the United States, March 1957." The Census of Religious Bodies began as a few questions on the Social Statistics form of the 1850 census. When the Bureau became permanent in 1902, it became possible to separate some data collection from the decennial census. The Census of Religious Bodies was a stand-alone census taken every  10 years between 1906 and 1936. Data were collected in 1946 but the funding for tabulation was not forthcoming. The entire census was eliminated in the mid 1950's. Copies of the report are in the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration (http://www.nara.gov).

The U.S. Census Bureau does not collect data on religious affiliation in its demographic surveys or decennial census. Public Law 94-521 prohibits us from asking a question on religious affiliation on a mandatory basis; in some person or household surveys, however, the U.S. Census Bureau may collect information about religious practices, on a voluntary basis. Therefore, the U.S. Census Bureau is not the source for information on religion, nor is the Census Bureau the source for information on religious affiliation. Some statistics on religion can be found in the Statistical Abstract of the United States, Section 1, Population.
We do publish economic data on Religious Organizations down to the county and ZIP Code level in the County Business Patterns series. Religious organizations are comprised of (1) establishments primarily engaged in operating religious organizations, such as churches, religious temples, and monasteries and/or (2) establishments primarily engaged in administering an organized religion or promoting religious activities. Additionally, the County Business Patterns series provides data on used merchandise stores that are operated by religious organizations."

what does the highlighted section mean to you?

to me it means I was wrong in that individual households are not tasked/mandated with giving over their religious affiliations. However.. that means the information they have in the way of religion is completely voluntary. IE the numbers are not less than they are they could be a whole lot larger!!!

Or are you denying that this census.gov web site is fraudulent or made up?
https://www.census.gov/library/publicati...ation.html

because on line 75 if you click on it a excel spread sheet will load with all the data I have been sharing. data that christian willing share and are not mandated to share. still puts us over 75% with little to no decline between 2001 and 2008 when you consider the margin of error.

Even if every single house hold was not polled these numbers are till far higher than any of your polls will give credit for. and again those who did answer did so because they wanted to which means there could have been those who declined to answer and are christians which would only make out number, not smaller.


This means

[Drich]

Do you guys understand how data is sourced and how it is rated?

Yes, do you? TL;DR It isn't from the US Census Bureau and it isn't worth shit.

I have several times given you my source as the us census and if any of you people cared to look it up you would find a neat spread sheet:

Have you noticed that isn't the US Census? To quote the US Census Bureau:

"The U.S. Census Bureau does not collect data on religious affiliation in its demographic surveys or decennial census. Public Law 94-521 prohibits us from asking a question on religious affiliation on a mandatory basis; in some person or household surveys, however, the U.S. Census Bureau may collect information about religious practices, on a voluntary basis. Therefore, the U.S. Census Bureau is not the source for information on religion, nor is the Census Bureau the source for information on religious affiliation."

It's a survey that the Census Bureau pulled the data from. Let me highlight the clues for you:

Table 75. Self-Described Religious Identification of Adult Population: 1990, 2001 and 2008
[In thousands (175,440 represents 175,440,000). The methodology of the American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS) 2008 replicated that used in previous surveys. The three surveys are based on random-digit-dialing telephone surveys of residential households in the continental U.S.A (48 states): 54,461 interviews in 2008, 50,281 in 2001, and 113,723 in 1990. Respondents were asked to describe themselves in terms of religion with an open-ended question. Interviewers did not prompt or offer a suggested list of potential answers. Moreover, the self-description of respondents was not based on whether established religious bodies, institutions, churches, mosques or synagogues considered them to be members. Instead, the surveys sought to determine whether the respondents regarded themselves as adherents of a religious community. Subjective rather than objective standards of religious identification were tapped by the surveys]

What you are quoting is a survey by Trinity College. The same sort of poll that you've been deriding for this entire thread. Tertiary data.

Source: 1990 data, Barry A. Kosmin and Seymour P. Lachman, "One Nation Under God: Religion in Contemporary American Society, 1993"; 2001 data, Barry A. Kosmin and Ariela Keysar, Religion in A Free Market: Religious and Non-Religious Americans, Who, What, Why, Where, 2006; 2008 data, Institute for the Study of Secularism in Society and Culture, Trinity College, Hartford, CT.

Oh, it isn't a survey. It's three different surveys that have done their best to replicate previous methodologies.

Just like uncle drich said.. why? because he does his research before he speaks and rarly does so from emotional want.

Then you'll have noticed that your data is at least a decade out of date and the methodology is 3 decades old. Further you'll have spotted the bias introduced by surveying only "residential households". Polling landlines using techniques developed in the 1980s is pretty much guaranteed to sample an ageing demographic and miss everybody who has switched to mobile. You'll also have noticed that the 1990 source is a book, not a peer-reviewed publication. And that's the methodology that the subsequent surveys followed.

Glad you did your homework though.

again .. I have been saying from the beginning we need the third data point from the 2020 to say conclusively whether or not religion is in a decline. never once pretended these numbers where conclusive. that said see the last post concerning your jonny come latly objection about how the census polls religion.

[Bucky Ball]

to me it means I was wrong in that individual households are not tasked/mandated with giving over their religious affiliations. However.. that means the information they have in the way of religion is completely voluntary. IE the numbers are not less than they are they could be a whole lot larger!!!

The numbers are therefore UNRELIABLE, and could also be a whole lot lower.
The Census is not a reliable scientific "sample" on this subject AT ALL.  

(I thought you claimed you *research* the shit you post ?)

[Drich]

Complete bullshit, as per his usual.
https://www.pewforum.org/2015/11/03/u-s-...rls_ii-84/

again polls mean nothing compared to the census. we have 2 modern data points and we need the 2020 census to be certain.

You have no Census data. That's a survey you're citing.

https://www.census.gov/library/publicati...ation.html

so no census data can be found on census.gov?

Let define census so your failure can be complete:
cen·sus
/ˈsensəs/
[/url]undefinedLearn to pronounce
[url=https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS743US744&q=how+to+pronounce+census&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAOMIfcRowS3w8sc9YSn9SWtOXmPU5OINKMrPK81LzkwsyczPExLiYglJLcoV4pLi4GJLTs0rLi22YlFiSs3jWcQqnpFfrlCSr1AA1JEP1JKqAFEAAFeXlMJXAAAA&pron_lang=en&pron_country=us&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi35Kfk3_3jAhXynuAKHVCHAL0Q3eEDMAB6BAgAEAg]
noun

1. an official count or survey of a population, typically recording various details of individuals.
   

So your wrong and you are right...

Census data does come from census .gov

and the census is a survey so yeas i do have census data and yes I have survey data.

what else you got?

[Bucky Ball]

So your* wrong and you are right...
what else you got?

*you're

[Minimalist]

Come on, guys.  Haven't you realized how Drippy react to facts yet?

[Cheerful Charlie]

If some people may volunteer information, we have the problem of self selection, which may very well be misleading. The equivalent of an online survey.

[Bucky Ball]

If some people may volunteer information, we have the problem of self selection, which mat very well be misleading.  The equivalent of an online survey.

There are also all kinds of other problems well known to researchers. If their census taker is doing an "in-person" collection, then we know people are far less likely to reveal things that they perceive the data collector might find less than complimentary.
https://stattrek.com/survey-research/survey-bias.aspx

[SYZ]

...as I pointed out all current data shows the church is not in an incline or decline. We need that third data point from the 2020 census to determine the fate of the church.

Nope.  We don't.  All past censuses in developed first-world countries have indicated a decline in religiosity,
both from the aspect of individual beliefs and church attendances.  Next year's US census isn't going to
magically reverse that trend.  In fact, there's every likelihood that the declining numbers trend will be shown
to have accelerated.  And the "current data" as you refer to your erroneous figures also confirm the decline
in religious practises—if expressed accurately or not wilfully misrepresented that is.

That is why your argument is fake news/irrelevant here. It is an attempt to change the narrative by excluding the primary discussion point about the modern church decline. Which again from 2000 to 08 shows no movement beyond the stated margin of error. That is what intellectually honest assessment looks like.

There's really no point in continuing this sort of disingenuous misrepresentation mate.

Check this site out for some accurate figures:

America’s Changing Religious Identity

Demographically, the US has historically been an overwhelmingly white Christian country, with white Protestants
alone constituting a clear cultural majority. In 1976, roughly eight in ten (81%) Americans identified as white
and identified with a Christian denomination. At that time, a majority (55%) of Americans were white Protestants.

Much of the decline has occurred in the last few decades. As recently as 1996, white Christians still made up
nearly two-thirds (65%) of the public. By 2006, that number dropped to 54%, but white Christians still constituted
a majority. But over the last decade, the proportion of white Christians in the US has slipped below majority.
Today, only 43% of Americans identify as white and Christian—and only 30% as white and Protestant.

Atheists and agnostics account for 27% of all religiously unaffiliated Americans, while 58% religiously unaffiliated
Americans identify as secular—someone who is not religious.

—BTW, can you please learn where your CAPS key is.

[Cheerful Charlie]

And according to the authors of the 2008 ARIS, Drich's source:

Generation X Becoming Less Christian, Less Republican; Catholic and Baptist Losses feed Religious Polarization

"Members of Generation X – the 35 million Americans born between 1965 and 1972 – have become less Christian and less Republican over the course of their adult lives, a new study by Trinity College shows. Striking declines in the number of Catholics and Baptists combined with sharp increases in the number of non-denominational Christians and those claiming no religious affiliation (Nones) show increased religious polarization in this generation, even as its political re-orientation towards the Democratic Party has been accompanied by modest growth in the number of political independents."

2008 study.  11 years old.  Not exactly a current survey.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1690/religion.aspx

Member of a church or synagogue?

Year     Yes     No

1992    70%   29%
2018    50%   50%

[Free]

wow... how dishonest are you???

Yes from 1990 your number are correct, but those number do not explain the total delt given.

WE HAD 3 Data points! not two.


    1990               2001            2008

 
Adult population, total 
 175,440,000  207,983,000  228,182,000
 
Christian, total
 151,225,000   159,514,000  173,402,000
      86.19%           76.69%         75.99%
So again between 90 and 01 was the major drop there has been very little to no (if you take in the margin of error) since 2001 to 2008 that is why there are three points of data here and not two. so as to give an accurate time frame as to when the decline in the church happened!

But you know that and decided to run with your BS numbers anyway just to try and fool lazy people into a false narrative about the church. This is disgusting behavior especially when you proclaim the use of intellectual honesty.

You are acting as if those points in any way change the % number or that they somehow change the fact that there are more and more people not affiliating with the Christian religion. They do not.

Whether you include 2001 or not, it does not change the fact that between 1990 and 2008, we have an 11% drop. Also, new data shows further decreases to nearly a 17% drop since 1990.

We can even include 2001 and the trend will still be the same. Your attempt to obfuscate this point is duly noted, and considering you call yourself a Christian I would expect a higher degree of honesty than I would get from an atheist, wouldn't you agree? 

So why is your dishonesty about this point so important to you? What do you hope to gain by contesting the data, which is quite clear?

Between 1990 and 2008 we have an 11% drop. Since then, we have dropped further to just over 70%.

Those are the facts.

READ THE OP SMART GUY!!!

The article is about the myth of the dying church.. meaning the are addressing current data of the church in decline. and as I pointed out all current data shows the church is not in an incline or decline. we need that third data point from the 2020 census to determine the fate of the church.

That is why your argument is fake news/irrelevant here. it is an attempt to change the narrative by excluding the primary discussion point about the modern church decline. which again from 2000 to 08 shows no movement beyond the stated margin of error. that is what intellectually honest assessment looks like.

You are doing something commonly known as "cherry picking." Picking out a period of time when the USA was under Islamic threat from Al Queda. The fact that the church affiliation declined only slightly between 2000 and 2008 does absolutely nothing to the evidence that between the years 1990 and 2018 affiliation declined a full 17%.

Although speculative, the slower rate of decline during the Bush years could be due to 9/11 and the Islamic threat, and how it rallied people to identify as Christian in opposition to that threat. However, that would only be for the first 3 or 4 years of Bush, and as things settled down the rate continued as normal but balanced out by the end of 2008, which would be why you see a small decrease.

We do not need a 3rd census data point of 2020, and for you to even to ask for one when you point at a non census date of 2008 is hypocritical. The fact that the US Census bureau gets it's information concerning religious affiliation from the American Religious Identification Survey (as it says so directly in the spreadsheet) should have indicated to you that your numbers are out of date according to American Religious Identification Survey (AIRS), which hasn't published anything in the past 6 years. It also should indicate to you that the Government didn't do it's own research, but rather used the research provided by ARIS, which was run by Trinity College.

The US Census Bureau does not ask questions about religion. Info HERE. Therefore, your data is not from a government source, but the government themselves sourced it from ARIS. 
.
Therefore, the latest and most accurate information comes from PEW Research, which has become the most trusted research institute of the USA, and is often quoted from by politicians, news organizations etc.

Their research shows that currently that Christian affiliation in the USA stands at 70.6%. 

https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/

Sorry to have to eat your lunch on your statistics not being official, but I promise to save you the apple core as a consolation.

Comments?

[Minimalist]

70.6 %.

Still too many.

[Drich]

to me it means I was wrong in that individual households are not tasked/mandated with giving over their religious affiliations. However.. that means the information they have in the way of religion is completely voluntary. IE the numbers are not less than they are they could be a whole lot larger!!!

The numbers are therefore UNRELIABLE, and could also be a whole lot lower.
The Census is not a reliable scientific "sample" on this subject AT ALL.  

(I thought you claimed you *research* the shit you post ?)

Again smart guy... they could be lower! that is my whole point!!! meaning Christians could have refused to answer fearing some sort of persecution. IE in truth the numbers are probably much higher!

YET...

The census numbers are the highest even though they probable low by your own recogning!

Do you understand?

If the census number is low by your own assumption that means the church in actuality is doing much much better than the census shows, which again is far higher than any of the polling shows.. 

This not only proves the church is doing well! it shows the bias of the hand selected polling sample.

Again... slow down think things through sport. you just doomed your own argument because you are not thinking things out logically. you are shooting off at the mouth in favor of trying to win a point, but in the process handed over the whole argument!

Lower census numbers does not disqualify the census it only further validates the church is doing much better than any polling agency claims!

Think it through.

[Free]

70.6 %.

Still too many.

According to recent correlated data, it should reach 47.8% by 2041. By 2061, 34%.

Religion is dying, and by the end of this century anyone who still believes in such nonsense will be viewed the same way Trump supporters are viewed today; "not the sharpest knives in the drawer."

[Drich]

If some people may volunteer information, we have the problem of self selection, which may very well be misleading.  The equivalent of an online survey.

we do not have such a luxury. these people are the gestapo. they get paid by the completed form or something.. they are persistent and unrelenting. if one mis fills a form they will send someone else to make you answer everything over again.they will hound you everyday for the 3 months or whatever they are funded to take the census.

[Free]

If some people may volunteer information, we have the problem of self selection, which may very well be misleading.  The equivalent of an online survey.

we do not have such a luxury. these people are the gestapo. they get paid by the completed form or something.. they are persistent and unrelenting. if one mis fills a form they will send someone else to make you answer everything over again.they will hound you everyday for the 3 months or whatever they are funded to take the census.

You do understand that the US Census Bureau doesn't ask questions about religious affiliation, right?

[Drich]

And according to the authors of the 2008 ARIS, Drich's source:

Generation X Becoming Less Christian, Less Republican; Catholic and Baptist Losses feed Religious Polarization

"Members of Generation X – the 35 million Americans born between 1965 and 1972 – have become less Christian and less Republican over the course of their adult lives, a new study by Trinity College shows. Striking declines in the number of Catholics and Baptists combined with sharp increases in the number of non-denominational Christians and those claiming no religious affiliation (Nones) show increased religious polarization in this generation, even as its political re-orientation towards the Democratic Party has been accompanied by modest growth in the number of political independents."

2008 study.  11 years old.  Not exactly a current survey.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1690/religion.aspx

Member of a church or synagogue?

Year     Yes     No

1992    70%   29%
2018    50%   50%

census is every 10 years... AS I SAID 100 TIMES NOW WE NEED THE THIRD DATA POINT 2020 WILL OFFER to properly determine whether or not the belief is in decline.

My only statement was to show that the article in the op is right and the most current numbers currently show it.

[Free]

And according to the authors of the 2008 ARIS, Drich's source:

Generation X Becoming Less Christian, Less Republican; Catholic and Baptist Losses feed Religious Polarization

"Members of Generation X – the 35 million Americans born between 1965 and 1972 – have become less Christian and less Republican over the course of their adult lives, a new study by Trinity College shows. Striking declines in the number of Catholics and Baptists combined with sharp increases in the number of non-denominational Christians and those claiming no religious affiliation (Nones) show increased religious polarization in this generation, even as its political re-orientation towards the Democratic Party has been accompanied by modest growth in the number of political independents."

2008 study.  11 years old.  Not exactly a current survey.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1690/religion.aspx

Member of a church or synagogue?

Year     Yes     No

1992    70%   29%
2018    50%   50%

census is every 10 years... AS I SAID 100 TIMES NOW WE NEED THE THIRD DATA POINT 2020 WILL OFFER to properly determine whether or not the belief is in decline.

My only statement was to show that the article in the op is right and the most current numbers currently show it.

The US Census Bureau hasn't asked questions about religious affiliation since the 1950s. You know that right?

[epronovost]

Again smart guy... they could be lower! that is my whole point!!! meaning Christians could have refused to answer fearing some sort of persecution.

Persecution against Christians in the US? I don't think there is such a thing. In fact, the opposite seems to be much more likely.

[Cheerful Charlie]

If some people may volunteer information, we have the problem of self selection, which may very well be misleading.  The equivalent of an online survey.

we do not have such a luxury. these people are the gestapo. they get paid by the completed form or something.. they are persistent and unrelenting. if one mis fills a form they will send someone else to make you answer everything over again.they will hound you everyday for the 3 months or whatever they are funded to take the census.

I was a team leader on a census crew during the 2010 census.  We got paid by the hour.  We had areas to canvas.  If people were not home, we would leave a note and try again later.  Or people could call the number on the form we left.

[Cheerful Charlie]

If some people may volunteer information, we have the problem of self selection, which may very well be misleading.  The equivalent of an online survey.

we do not have such a luxury. these people are the gestapo. they get paid by the completed form or something.. they are persistent and unrelenting. if one mis fills a form they will send someone else to make you answer everything over again.they will hound you everyday for the 3 months or whatever they are funded to take the census.

You do understand that the US Census Bureau doesn't ask questions about religious affiliation, right?

In 2010, I worked doing the Census.  I can attest that the forms did not in fact ask any questions about religion.

[Free]

we do not have such a luxury. these people are the gestapo. they get paid by the completed form or something.. they are persistent and unrelenting. if one mis fills a form they will send someone else to make you answer everything over again.they will hound you everyday for the 3 months or whatever they are funded to take the census.

You do understand that the US Census Bureau doesn't ask questions about religious affiliation, right?

In 2010, I worked doing the Census.  I can attest that the forms did not in fact ask any questions about religion.

They haven't asked any questions about religion since the 1950s.

His religious data comes from a non-official source.

[Paleophyte]

again .. I have been saying from the beginning we need the third data point from the 2020 to say conclusively whether or not religion is in a decline. never once pretended these numbers where conclusive. that said see the last post concerning your jonny come latly objection about how the census polls religion.

The authors of ARIS, your source, didn't need 2020 data to conclude that religion is declining. Are they experts or not? Make up your mind.

The US Census doesn't poll religion. They're pretty specific about that. Your source isn't the US Census, it's a Trinity College survey. If you were at all honest about the integrity of your data you'd have to admit that it was no better than a poll.