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Humans will be extinct in 100 years
#26

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
People do keep dying.
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#27

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 04:07 PM)Aegon Wrote:
(10-28-2019, 03:14 PM)Szuchow Wrote: Assuming it will happen I won't be around so I don't see reason to care.


That's a strange point of view. Do you currently not care about the deaths of others as well? I guess it wouldn't be strange in that case.

Why care about something inevitable? I can do nothing about death of others and while I sometimes feel flicker of sadness when reading the news it would be dishonest to say that I really care. People die every day and it's just reality of things that can not be changed. It is suffering of others that I care about (but still can't do much to alleviate it).
The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology, of the phantom of God. As long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth.

Mikhail Bakunin.
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#28

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 04:07 PM)Aegon Wrote:
(10-28-2019, 03:14 PM)Szuchow Wrote: Assuming it will happen I won't be around so I don't see reason to care.

That's a strange point of view. Do you currently not care about the deaths of others as well? I guess it wouldn't be strange in that case.

Some people might say humanity deserves it for our own short-sightedness, but many innocent people will suffer the most from climate change.  Plus, we were trying to make the world a better place for ourselves and were perhaps too successful.  Now we need to change our priorities.
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#29

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 04:18 PM)Szuchow Wrote:
(10-28-2019, 04:07 PM)Aegon Wrote:
(10-28-2019, 03:14 PM)Szuchow Wrote: Assuming it will happen I won't be around so I don't see reason to care.


That's a strange point of view. Do you currently not care about the deaths of others as well? I guess it wouldn't be strange in that case.

Why care about something inevitable? I can do nothing about death of others and while I sometimes feel flicker of sadness when reading the news it would be dishonest to say that I really care. People die every day and it's just reality of things that can not be changed. It is suffering of others that I care about (but still can't do much to alleviate it).

I suppose, but I don't think it's inevitable. Every person who has any sort of knowledge on this stuff keeps putting numbers out there, and I wouldn't call it inevitable because futurologists can't help themselves.

(10-28-2019, 04:19 PM)Alan V Wrote:
(10-28-2019, 04:07 PM)Aegon Wrote:
(10-28-2019, 03:14 PM)Szuchow Wrote: Assuming it will happen I won't be around so I don't see reason to care.

That's a strange point of view. Do you currently not care about the deaths of others as well? I guess it wouldn't be strange in that case.

Some people might say humanity deserves it for our own short-sightedness, but many innocent people will suffer the most from climate change.  Plus, we were trying to make the world a better place for ourselves and were perhaps too successful.  Now we need to change our priorities.

That's dumb. What are they, Catholics? We deserve it? Fuck that.
"If a person gave away your body to some passerby, you’d be furious. Yet, you hand over your mind to anyone who comes along, so they may abuse you, leaving it disturbed and troubled — have you no shame in that?" 

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#30

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 04:28 PM)Aegon Wrote:
(10-28-2019, 04:19 PM)Alan V Wrote: Some people might say humanity deserves it for our own short-sightedness, but many innocent people will suffer the most from climate change.  Plus, we were trying to make the world a better place for ourselves and were perhaps too successful.  Now we need to change our priorities.

That's dumb. What are they, Catholics? We deserve it? Fuck that.

I was trying to answer what I thought Szuchow was saying, so you misunderstood my intention.
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#31

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 04:28 PM)Aegon Wrote: I suppose, but I don't think it's inevitable. Every person who has any sort of knowledge on this stuff keeps putting numbers out there, and I wouldn't call it inevitable because futurologists can't help themselves.

When I spoke of inevitability I meant death.
The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology, of the phantom of God. As long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth.

Mikhail Bakunin.
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#32

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 04:19 PM)Alan V Wrote: Plus, we were trying to make the world a better place for ourselves and were perhaps too successful.

I'm not that sure about the "we" thing. There's a god in this world, trumping all the other gods of any denomination. And it's called profit at all costs.

Sure, most people strive for making it a better world for themselves and their offspring. But that's not what makes the world tick. It's the gospel of economic growth. And that can't continue for all eternity without utterly destroying our environment. Sooner rather than later it saws off the branch we are sitting on.

We're still largely depending on fossils without having sufficient knowledge of what could replace them once they dry out. So there will be wars over the last ressources. Maybe in years, maybe in decades, maybe in a century or so. Same goes for food. If climate change continues at the rate it does, and it changes rapidly, as I can say from my own 50+ years of experience, there will be famine in many regions, but still, dirt is blown into the atmosphere as if there was no tomorrow, because it still nets a nice profit.
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#33

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 04:34 PM)Alan V Wrote:
(10-28-2019, 04:28 PM)Aegon Wrote:
(10-28-2019, 04:19 PM)Alan V Wrote: Some people might say humanity deserves it for our own short-sightedness, but many innocent people will suffer the most from climate change.  Plus, we were trying to make the world a better place for ourselves and were perhaps too successful.  Now we need to change our priorities.

That's dumb. What are they, Catholics? We deserve it? Fuck that.

I was trying to answer what I thought Szuchow was saying, so you misunderstood my intention.

I'm not on "we deserve it" train (though mankind in general isn't something that I hold in high regard) I simply don't care about possibility of species going extinct as humanity as gestalt is too abstract of idea to bother me with it's existence or lack of it. If extinction happen then humans will be just another species lost to the history.
The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology, of the phantom of God. As long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth.

Mikhail Bakunin.
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#34

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 04:38 PM)abaris Wrote:
(10-28-2019, 04:19 PM)Alan V Wrote: Plus, we were trying to make the world a better place for ourselves and were perhaps too successful.

I'm not that sure about the "we" thing. There's a god in this world, trumping all the other gods of any denomination. And it's called profit at all costs.

Sure, most people strive for making it a better world for themselves and their offspring. But that's not what makes the world tick. It's the gospel of economic growth. And that can't continue for all eternity without utterly destroying our environment. Sooner rather than later it saws off the branch we are sitting on.

We're still largely depending on fossils without having sufficient knowledge of what could replace them once they dry out. So there will be wars over the last resources. Maybe in years, maybe in decades, maybe in a century or so. Same goes for food. If climate change continues at the rate it does, and it changes rapidly, as I can say from my own 50+ years of experience, there will be famine in many regions, but still, dirt is blown into the atmosphere as if there was no tomorrow, because it still nets a nice profit.

That reminds me of something David Attenborough said.  I'll paraphrase: "If you believe in unlimited economic growth in a limited world, you are either crazy or an economist."
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#35

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
I have to agree with Grympy on this one. It's an argument from authority and one nearly a decade old at that. Fenner is an eminent microbiologist, which does not mean that his crystal ball is much better tuned than any other scientist. I'd trust his opinion more than a banker's or a policeman's, but no more than an astrophysicist.

If you dig into the article you'll find the following:

"He said he believes the situation is irreversible, and it is too late because the effects we have had on Earth since industrialization (a period now known to scientists unofficially as the Anthropocene) rivals any effects of ice ages or comet impacts."

Emphasis mine. The first bit shows that what we're talking about is a belief. It's an opinion. Granted, it's an opinion based on more information than your average Joe but less than an expert in the field. The second part is simply wrong, and demonstrates the limits of Fenner's understanding of material outside of his discipline. As of this writing, nothing that humans have done has caused global firestorms, nuclear winter, or extinguished 65% of all species.

The real problem with making hundred year predictions is that you simply can't take into account the technological innovations, paradigm shifts, or breakthroughs. In 1919 they were celebrating the end of The War To End All Wars, supersonic flight and space exploration were widely viewed to be impossible. The integrated microcircuit wasn't even on the horizon, much less the modern internet and self-driving cars. They couldn't predict 2019 because they couldn't possibly conceive of us.
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#36

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 06:11 PM)Paleophyte Wrote: Emphasis mine. The first bit shows that what we're talking about is a belief. It's an opinion. Granted, it's an opinion based on more information than your average Joe but less than an expert in the field. The second part is simply wrong, and demonstrates the limits of Fenner's understanding of material outside of his discipline. As of this writing, nothing that humans have done has caused global firestorms, nuclear winter, or extinguished 65% of all species.

I am 56 years old and believe me, if the climate keeps changing at the same rate it does within the last two decades, he may be right.

The last 20 years, according to climate experts, were the hottest since temperature is measured. In my region, when I grew up and was in my twens, 30 degrees where hot for a summer's day. Now we're pushing 40 in some spots. Within a short period of 25/30 years. We had a lot of snow in the winter. The last few winters were virtually snow free.

This isn't imagination, this is happening within my lifetime. And I have the charts to prove it. 

https://www.wien.gv.at/statistik/lebensr...ge-zr.html

These are the charts for the Vienna region. Look for the keyword "Hitzetage", days when the temperature rose above 30 degrees celsius. Look at how this pans out since the turn of the century.
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#37

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 07:33 PM)abaris Wrote: I am 56 years old and believe me, if the climate keeps changing at the same rate it does within the last two decades, he may be right.

I'm aware of the changes and yes, he might be right. Emphasis on the "might be". That leaves it in the realm of opinion and belief.

That sort of doomsaying isn't helpful in any regard. It just encourages certain reprobates to switch from "Nothing's happening so what's the fuss" denialism to "We're fucked so why bother" inaction.
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#38

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 04:07 PM)Aegon Wrote:
(10-28-2019, 03:14 PM)Szuchow Wrote: Assuming it will happen I won't be around so I don't see reason to care.


That's a strange point of view. Do you currently not care about the deaths of others as well? I guess it wouldn't be strange in that case.

 Strange ?  Nah, I'd say more like honestly selfish.   I don't care/worry about things which will happen after I'm gone.Nothing much I will be able to do about them, what with being dead and all.

OF I course I care when people die. Sometimes even when I don't know the person.  I have lost 7 people in the last  two years. This year my mother and closest  male friend of nearly 50 years, within 3 months of one another. THAT has knocked me around. May be one reason I was so prickly with SYZ . For that, I'm sorry. 

In the mean time, I live a day at a time. I do what little  I can about say climate change, and stay close to those I love. . The group is beginning to shrink .As the eldest sibling,  I'm hoping I'll die before  the others.
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#39

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
If it really happens 100 years from now, and you are now 50 or younger, you will be part of the age of warfare and famine that precedes extinction. 100 years doesn't mean all of a sudden everyone drops dead 100 years from now, it means the process is finished then.
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#40

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 08:52 PM)Paleophyte Wrote: That sort of doomsaying isn't helpful in any regard. It just encourages certain reprobates to switch from "Nothing's happening so what's the fuss" denialism to "We're fucked so why bother" inaction.

Or it may be encouraging the opposite. The world may be populated by a large amount of  idiots and fatalists, but I guess there's a growing amount of people being aware of the changes also.

(10-28-2019, 09:21 PM)Dom Wrote: If it really happens 100 years from now, and you are now 50 or younger, you will be part of the age of warfare and famine that precedes extinction. 100 years doesn't mean all of a sudden everyone drops dead 100 years from now, it means the process is finished then.

I'm not necessarilly subscribing to his hundred years prediction. I guess he wanted to paint as grim a picture as possible to shake people up. See what I said above. I take it as a wakeup call and not every Politician in power is a Trump or a Bolsonaro. It's grim food for thought. At least I take it that way.
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#41

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
Not my concern, since I won't be around in another ten years.  walking-stick
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#42

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 11:55 PM)Gwaithmir Wrote: Not my concern, since I won't be around in another ten years.  walking-stick
One of my grandmothers lived to be over 100 years old. She wasn't certain, her papers "got lost" on Ellis Island.
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#43

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
Well Fenner was apparently a virologist that helped create a virus that was used to kill almost something like 90% of the rabbit infestation in Australia at some point.

I haven't read his stuff but he could've probably envisioned constant waves of infections & disease created in the overcrowded cities and spread by war & famine.


As for me I'll probably be gone in 25 years, but my kids could easily make it to the hundred year "ending date" (especially if you start counting at the 2010 date).

And I imagine that if he could have foreseen this anti-vaxxer stupidity we're plagued with now, he may well have cut a few more decades off his projection.
_____________________________________________________

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"If we're going to be damned, let's be damned for what we really are." - Captain Picard

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#44

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 09:19 AM)Gawdzilla Sama Wrote: I am reminded of the way The Stand ended.

We are sorta the mammalian cockroaches, aren't we?
"What senses do we lack that we cannot see or hear another world all around us?" -- Frank Herbert
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#45

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 04:19 PM)Alan V Wrote:
(10-28-2019, 04:07 PM)Aegon Wrote:
(10-28-2019, 03:14 PM)Szuchow Wrote: Assuming it will happen I won't be around so I don't see reason to care.

That's a strange point of view. Do you currently not care about the deaths of others as well? I guess it wouldn't be strange in that case.

Some people might say humanity deserves it for our own short-sightedness, but many innocent people will suffer the most from climate change.  Plus, we were trying to make the world a better place for ourselves and were perhaps too successful.  Now we need to change our priorities.

Woe betide the egotistical.
"What senses do we lack that we cannot see or hear another world all around us?" -- Frank Herbert
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#46

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
Damn!  I now want to live long enough to see humans become extinct.    Tongue
No gods necessary
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#47

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
Being an "eminent" microbiologist does not grant one any credence or authority in predicting the future.
There is nothing in microbiology that studies all the topics involved in futurism.
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#48

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-29-2019, 04:43 AM)Bucky Ball Wrote: Being an "eminent" microbiologist does not grant one any credence or authority in predicting the future.
There is nothing in microbiology that studies all the topics involved in futurism.

I'd say that anybody highly qualified in the sciences—with a long list of awards in the field—is certainly
better qualified to posit an opinion about the viability of life on the planet than you or me.  Fenner was
a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Sciences and a Fellow of the Royal Society.  To deny him any
scientific accreditation and/or credence is absurd.

And judging by your use of the word "futurism" it's obvious you think it means something different to
what it actually means.
I'm a creationist;   I believe that man created God.
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#49

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-29-2019, 08:32 AM)SYZ Wrote:
(10-29-2019, 04:43 AM)Bucky Ball Wrote: Being an "eminent" microbiologist does not grant one any credence or authority in predicting the future.
There is nothing in microbiology that studies all the topics involved in futurism.

I'd say that anybody highly qualified in the sciences—with a long list of awards in the field—is certainly
better qualified to posit an opinion about the viability of life on the planet than you or me.  Fenner was
a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Sciences and a Fellow of the Royal Society.  To deny him any
scientific accreditation and/or credence is absurd.

And judging by your use of the word "futurism" it's obvious you think it means something different to
what it actually means.

Expertise in microbiology is entirely pertinent to climate change:

Quote: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brie...bgWL-jYrnE

“[Microbes] support the existence of all higher lifeforms and are critically important in regulating climate change,” Ricardo Cavicchioli, a University of New South Wales environmental microbiologist and co-author on the paper, said in a press release. “However, they are rarely the focus of climate change studies and not considered in policy development.”

Now, Cavicchioli and his co-authors hope that their statement, published in the journal Nature Reviews Microbiology, “puts humanity on notice,” they write in the abstract.

The world’s dirt holds on to some 2.2 trillion tons of carbon. That’s more than the combined amount of carbon in the atmosphere and in vegetation. And what controls how much carbon soil can hang on to and how much it releases? Microbes. Their carbon gatekeeping is critical, because the element is one of the key components of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2), which is currently at record levels in Earth’s atmosphere.
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#50

Humans will be extinct in 100 years
(10-28-2019, 02:00 AM)Phaedrus Wrote: According to eminent scientist

Quote:One of the world’s leading scientists, Professor Frank Fenner, has made a grim prediction: He says that humans will be completely WIPED OUT in 100 years, as overpopulation and environmental destruction will cause humans to become extinct in a matter of years.

Fenner is an eminent microbiologist at the Australian National University blames “unbridled consumption” and the “population explosion” as the key reasons why the human race will not survive to see 2100 and beyond.

Deadpan Coffee Drinker

So ... he thinks we'll have it easy, eh? No wandering dystopian wastelands, eating each other to stay alive? That's a relief.
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