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The Miracle Challenge
#26

The Miracle Challenge
Hume's response to miracles remains the benchmark to this day. While there are many interesting questions surrounding his response, the core remains remarkably solid.

There is no good reason to believe any miracle until his objections have been handled at a basic level. That hasn't happened yet, and may never happen.

The only remaining questions are epistemological, namely, how do incredible claims such as miracles shade into credible ones that can be believed, and what accounts for the difference.
[Image: signature%20The-Ascension-of-Iweko.jpg]
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#27

The Miracle Challenge
(08-29-2019, 02:38 PM)Dānu Wrote:
(08-29-2019, 12:33 AM)grympy Wrote:
(08-28-2019, 10:22 AM)brunumb Wrote: If you were ill would you seek treatment in a hospital that had a comparable success rate?   Shake

Tangent:  I'm a sober member of Alcoholics Anonymous. 17 years  sober June 30 this year.  

I recommend AA  to any suffering alcoholic . That is because just about anyone who goes to AA will find some relief, because most people stop drinking while they are  attending AA meetings.  

People actively trying to stop drinking actually stop drinking while actively trying to stop.  I'm stunned.  What are the odds of that?


And what is their failure rate?

"Hi, I'm Jason, and I've been sober for about 6 hours now.  Hic."
Robert G. Ingersoll : “No man with a sense of humor ever founded a religion.”
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#28

The Miracle Challenge
(08-29-2019, 02:38 PM)Dānu Wrote:
(08-29-2019, 12:33 AM)grympy Wrote:
(08-28-2019, 10:22 AM)brunumb Wrote: If you were ill would you seek treatment in a hospital that had a comparable success rate?   Shake

Tangent:  I'm a sober member of Alcoholics Anonymous. 17 years  sober June 30 this year.  

I recommend AA  to any suffering alcoholic . That is because just about anyone who goes to AA will find some relief, because most people stop drinking while they are  attending AA meetings.  

People actively trying to stop drinking actually stop drinking while actively trying to stop.  I'm stunned.  What are the odds of that?

After three readings I decided that post was a beautifully executed poe, as in:

Quote:...most people stop drinking while they are  attending AA meetings.
 

Well yes, you don't tend to see crates of Newcastle Brown Ale at AA meetings.

Quote:(approx 10% of the population suffers  from alcoholism)  

10% of the population are alcoholics?

Quote:To the point:  the long term success rate of AA  (sober 2 years and over) is between 3-5%,

A success rate of 5% isn't a success it's a dismal failure.
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#29

The Miracle Challenge
Such is the impressiveness of surrendering oneself to a non-existent "higher power!"
Robert G. Ingersoll : “No man with a sense of humor ever founded a religion.”
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#30

The Miracle Challenge
(08-29-2019, 02:38 PM)Dānu Wrote:
(08-29-2019, 12:33 AM)grympy Wrote:
(08-28-2019, 10:22 AM)brunumb Wrote: If you were ill would you seek treatment in a hospital that had a comparable success rate?   Shake

Tangent:  I'm a sober member of Alcoholics Anonymous. 17 years  sober June 30 this year.  

I recommend AA  to any suffering alcoholic . That is because just about anyone who goes to AA will find some relief, because most people stop drinking while they are  attending AA meetings.  

People actively trying to stop drinking actually stop drinking while actively trying to stop.  I'm stunned.  What are the odds of that?


 Sarcasm made in ignorance is seldom funny. . 

Those same people are  usually incapable of stopping  even for more than a day or so by themselves. The support of others, freely given without judgement , is very powerful.     

I did not get sober on my first attempt . When I returned, I was welcomed , with  full understanding  of how hard it is to give up, and then  go back to AA after a bust. 

I'd appreciate if instead of making silly comments  you could possibly be encouraging for the odd person here who is almost certainly still suffering.
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#31

The Miracle Challenge
(08-29-2019, 04:12 PM)Minimalist Wrote:
(08-29-2019, 02:38 PM)Dānu Wrote:
(08-29-2019, 12:33 AM)grympy Wrote: Tangent:  I'm a sober member of Alcoholics Anonymous. 17 years  sober June 30 this year.  

I recommend AA  to any suffering alcoholic . That is because just about anyone who goes to AA will find some relief, because most people stop drinking while they are  attending AA meetings.  

People actively trying to stop drinking actually stop drinking while actively trying to stop.  I'm stunned.  What are the odds of that?


And what is their failure rate?

"Hi, I'm Jason, and I've been sober for about 6 hours now.  Hic."

The failure rate  is around 95% for long term sobriety.  However, the majority seem to stay  sober anything from a few weeks up to a year ,possibly two. 

As I said, most people get some relief. Even a few months is important in terms of  mortality. Eg the liver might recover a bit ,and that will extend their life.

I am a rarity in AA; a geriatric recovering alkie . The only people over 70 I've ever seen in AA have been sober for decades., and there  is rarely more than one at any any one time.  (Pretty much all members of AA attend several meetings a week, at many different venues.  ) I have not yet met a geriatric suffering alcoholic.

Yep, abysmal long term success rate.   However, AA considers any sobriety valuable. Alcoholism is a condition with 100% mortality if the alcoholic keeps drinking. But, there  is nothing else  which is free . Even expensive  residential rehab programmes almost always use the AA  12 Step programme. 

People are allowed to turn up drunk to meetings, but not to actually drink. It's rare, usually a street alkie, who is pretty far gone.  Such people are treated  with  acceptance and compassion. Every member knows that could be them one day.  
 
((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((9)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

I went to Aa for a total of 3 years. I stopped going when I felt I no longer needed it .But I know it's always  there if I have the need. That's a very comforting .

I differ with AA on two major notions: 

AA is built  around the concept of a higher power, ' a God  of your understanding ' . MY God was ; "Group Of Drunks". There are actually a surprising number of Atheist AA members. Common occupations: nurses, policeman , car salesmen -and a LOT from entertainment,  but high profile members often go to closed meetings.

The second  is AA's evidence  based claim  that Alcoholism is a disease.  By 'evidence  based' I mean that AA is able to cite between  800-1000  learned/peer reviewed books and articles which support the  notion that alcoholism is a disease.  On face value ,one may get the impression  this view is the consensus. It ain't , and it ain't my view.  

A lot of alkies in my family. All of my siblings, bot maternal grandparents , and a maternal aunt. Only my aunt got sober. I'm pretty much convinced there MAY be a genetic component to addiction. It may just as much be a matter of a learned family culture of drinking and drunkenness.


I think alcoholism can be a disease for many .Like my aunt, an alcoholic from her first drink. She HAD to continue drinking until she passed out . Took me twenty years  before I reached the point of not being able to control my drinking .THAT is THE thing about Alcoholism; it's not about how much or how often you drink . It's about whether you can stop at any moment and whether you can  control your behaviour when you drink.

 An alcoholic needs a reason/excuse to drink. A normal person does not. You cannot help an alcoholic until he/she is  ready to accept your help. Recriminations and threats  only make them feel more  guilty .
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#32

The Miracle Challenge
(08-29-2019, 12:33 AM)grympy Wrote:
(08-28-2019, 10:22 AM)brunumb Wrote:
(08-28-2019, 04:36 AM)grympy Wrote: Since then  there have been in excess of 200 MILLION pilgrims begging St Bernadette, the Virgin Mary or both,  to intercede  with God on their behalf. So far, the Church has recognised a total  of 65 cures.

If you were ill would you seek treatment in a hospital that had a comparable success rate?   Shake

Tangent:  I'm a sober member of Alcoholics Anonymous. 17 years  sober June 30 this year.  

I recommend AA  to any suffering alcoholic . That is because just about anyone who goes to AA will find some relief, because most people stop drinking while they are  attending AA meetings.  

There is almost nothing else around to treat alcoholism or any other addiction .  


There are several alternatives.

Quote:There are Narcotics anonymous, Al Ateen  for the teen children of alkies and  Al-Anon for the adult family of alkies.  I think virtually ALL addiction rehab programmes  are based on the 12 steps of  AA . 

There are other modalities, e.g. Rational Recovery.

Quote:I have also heard of  one  psychologist who claims  he can cure alcohol addiction.   I've seen no proof of that. 

I needed to mention the above, lest any suffering alcoholic on the forum be discourage from attending AA. (approx 10% of the population suffers  from alcoholism)   

I believe that number is more like 7%.

Quote:To the point:  the long term success rate of AA  (sober 2 years and over) is between 3-5%, as far as I'm aware.  Would you  seek a treatment for a disease with  100% fatality ,with those odds?

I haven't been to an AA meeting in many years, but I've been clean and sober for nearly 28 years.  I did go to AA for a number of years and I did get help there.
However, it wasn't slavish adherence to the 12 Steps but rather peer support, helping and being helped by friends, and a soupçon of sheer bloody-mindedness that kept me from continuing to destroy myself.  
I was sick and tired of being sick and tired.  (I sometimes think that AA stands for "Aphorisms Anonymous". Big Grin)

I, too, urge people to seek treatment when addiction is ruling their lives.  Attending AA works for some.

Oh, no Hallucinations 4:11 says the 'gilded sheep should be stewed in rat blood' but Morons 5:16 contradicts it.
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#33

The Miracle Challenge
(08-29-2019, 11:33 PM)Chas Wrote:
(08-29-2019, 12:33 AM)grympy Wrote:
(08-28-2019, 10:22 AM)brunumb Wrote: If you were ill would you seek treatment in a hospital that had a comparable success rate?   Shake

Tangent:  I'm a sober member of Alcoholics Anonymous. 17 years  sober June 30 this year.  

I recommend AA  to any suffering alcoholic . That is because just about anyone who goes to AA will find some relief, because most people stop drinking while they are  attending AA meetings.  

There is almost nothing else around to treat alcoholism or any other addiction .  


There are several alternatives.

Quote:There are Narcotics anonymous, Al Ateen  for the teen children of alkies and  Al-Anon for the adult family of alkies.  I think virtually ALL addiction rehab programmes  are based on the 12 steps of  AA . 

There are other modalities, e.g. Rational Recovery.

Quote:I have also heard of  one  psychologist who claims  he can cure alcohol addiction.   I've seen no proof of that. 

I needed to mention the above, lest any suffering alcoholic on the forum be discourage from attending AA. (approx 10% of the population suffers  from alcoholism)   

I believe that number is more like 7%.

Quote:To the point:  the long term success rate of AA  (sober 2 years and over) is between 3-5%, as far as I'm aware.  Would you  seek a treatment for a disease with  100% fatality ,with those odds?

I haven't been to an AA meeting in many years, but I've been clean and sober for nearly 28 years.  I did go to AA for a number of years and I did get help there.
However, it wasn't slavish adherence to the 12 Steps but rather peer support, helping and being helped by friends, and a soupçon of sheer bloody-mindedness that kept me from continuing to destroy myself.  
I was sick and tired of being sick and tired.  (I sometimes think that AA stands for "Aphorisms Anonymous". Big Grin)

I, too, urge people to seek treatment when addiction is ruling their lives.  Attending AA works for some.

28 YEARS? WOW! Fan-bloody- tastic.

Won't quibble about stats., 7% is still far too many. Is any number acceptable.? Figures do vary between Countries. Oz has a firmly entrenched permissive drinking culture .

I'm aware there are alternatives,  but of none which have greater long term success rate than AA . I will of course change  my mind on seeing  credible evidence that any or all alternatives have a success rate of FROM 5 years, but up to 20 or more.

 I will be thrilled  if that is the case. Even better if  another approach will   enable an alcoholic to drink like a normal person.  I'll do it in a heart beat.  I'd love to be able to say have a few beers, without having to drink an entire slab (24 bottles/cans)


PS be interested to discover how many (if any) of the alternatives are based on the AA 12 step programme.

I didn't bother with the steps at all except the first. Was all about peer support for me too. My position has always been :I GOT ME SOBER , not AA or anyone else. I made a committed decision to stop, and then accepted whatever help I could find, and I found a lot of support besides AA

Best advice an AA member gave me; be VERY careful about who you tell you are an alcoholic. Do NOT tell ANYONE at work !
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#34

The Miracle Challenge
A new study published in JAMA Psychiatry this month finds that the rate of alcohol use
disorder, or what's colloquially known as "alcoholism," rose by 49% in the first decade
of the 2000s. One in eight American adults, or 12.7% the US population, now meets
diagnostic criteria for alcohol use disorder, according to the study.
—11 Aug 2017

Australians drink 12.6 litres of alcohol per year, and Americans drink 9.0 litres. (WHO,  per capita age 15+,  2015,  OECD Countries)

Alcohol consumption in Australia as per this graph:

[Image: alcoholleft.aspx]

(updated 25 July 2019)
I'm a creationist;   I believe that man created God.
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#35

The Miracle Challenge
12.6 litres A YEAR?

That doesn't sound right. Is that a mean average ? That is still only a 500 ml a week (about a pint) .

Be interested to know their criteria and if it agrees with AA, which is pretty simple : It's not about when or how much you drink . It's about whether you can stop once you begin drinking and whether you can guarantee your behaviour. Hence the periodic binge drinker is often considered an alkie . These people will often 'lose time' . In extreme cases will sober up in another city or even in another country. .I guess easy to do in the EU.
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