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Sex offenders at work

Sex offenders at work
(01-23-2019, 05:20 PM)epronovost Wrote:
(01-23-2019, 04:31 PM)PopeyesPappy Wrote: Yes I'm aware of that, and I didn't say it was the only even the main reason. Just that one could argue the point. Which is kind of what Assassin was alluding to. It's hard to be a repeat offender when you are still in jail. 

In the meantime... Are the crime rates dropping in other countries proportional to the US? Because I'm under the impression, perhaps mistakenly, that violent crime rates in many European countries have been on the rise for a while now. Are their prison populations stable? Are the statistics even compatible, or do the US and other countries count crimes, violent crimes in particular, differently?

Like in the US, in Europe, Canada, New Zeland and Australia, crime, especially violent crimes, have been dropping just like the US except in some localised areas like some areas of large cities which have been harmed by a variety of causes, amongst other, bad policing strategies, poverty concentration, poor infrastructures, racism, etc.

Once again, are they decreasing?

Quote:Earlier research that examined changes in violent crime detected sustained increases in recorded rates of assault, sexual assault (rape) and robbery that began or intensified in the 1990s (Carcach 2005; Indermaur 1996, 2000; Ross & Polk 2005). While rates of recorded assault and sexual assault continued to rise into the early 2000s

https://aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/tandi359

Homicide isn't the only indicator of violent crime.
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Sex offenders at work
(01-23-2019, 05:27 PM)PopeyesPappy Wrote: Once again, are they decreasing?

As far as I know, overall, yes, crime has been decreasing except in localised areas where it has increased. As mention in your own sources, and its the same for all others, the rise in crime is caused by a shift in reporting of said crime then a rise in victimization; not a rise in crime per say, but a rise in crime being denounced.
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Sex offenders at work
(01-23-2019, 05:44 PM)epronovost Wrote:
(01-23-2019, 05:27 PM)PopeyesPappy Wrote: Once again, are they decreasing?

As far as I know, overall, yes, crime has been decreasing except in localised areas where it has increased. As mention in your own sources, and its the same for all others, the rise in crime is caused by a shift in reporting of said crime then a rise in victimization; not a rise in crime per say, but a rise in crime being denounced.

That's not all it says. It says that while increased reporting and better records keeping probably accounts for some of the increase, at least some of the exerts in that report say these things can't account for all the increase. It goes on to say the reporting conflicts with the victimization reports which further complicates things. Basically until someone can demonstrate otherwise the bottom line is the best data available says violent crime rates, in Australia in this example, are increasing not decreasing.
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Sex offenders at work
(01-23-2019, 05:27 PM)PopeyesPappy Wrote:
(01-23-2019, 05:20 PM)epronovost Wrote: Like in the US, in Europe, Canada, New Zeland and Australia, crime, especially violent crimes, have been dropping...

Once again, are they decreasing?
https://aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/tandi359

The figures cited in the above link are over 10 years out of date.

Recorded crime statistics for the year ending 30 September 2018 from the Victorian Crime Statistics Agency:

In the last 12 months the number of criminal incidents decreased 1.6% or 6,388 incidents to 384,183, the
lowest since the year ending September 2015. The criminal incident rate also decreased 3.8% to 5,938.7
incidents per 100,000 Victorians, the lowest rates since the year ending September 2014.

In the year ending September 2018 the number of victim reports recorded decreased 2.8% to 299,994, the
lowest since September 2015. The rate decreased by 5.0% in the last 12 months to 4,637.3 victim reports
per 100,000 Victorians, the lowest in the last 10 years.

Family related incidents increased 3.5% in the last 12 months to 78,001 incidents. The family incident rate
increased by 1.2% to 1,205.7 incidents per 100,000 population.
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Sex offenders at work
(01-24-2019, 12:25 PM)SYZ Wrote: The figures cited in the above link are over 10 years out of date.

Recorded crime statistics for the year ending 30 September 2018 from the Victorian Crime Statistics Agency:

In the last 12 months the number of criminal incidents decreased 1.6% or 6,388 incidents to 384,183, the
lowest since the year ending September 2015. The criminal incident rate also decreased 3.8% to 5,938.7
incidents per 100,000 Victorians, the lowest rates since the year ending September 2014.

In the year ending September 2018 the number of victim reports recorded decreased 2.8% to 299,994, the
lowest since September 2015. The rate decreased by 5.0% in the last 12 months to 4,637.3 victim reports
per 100,000 Victorians, the lowest in the last 10 years.

Family related incidents increased 3.5% in the last 12 months to 78,001 incidents. The family incident rate
increased by 1.2% to 1,205.7 incidents per 100,000 population.

Yea the numbers are old, but that is only because historical tabulated numbers for the last decade are hard to come by for some reason. While I actually enjoy analyzing the numbers for this type of stuff, I don't have the time to go through the annual reports one year at a time to get the data.

What you listed is just 3 years for one state. That may be representative of long term national trend. It may not be. Meanwhile according to the CSEW survey violent crime was up 9% and robberies were up 40% last year in England and Whales. According to them continuing the trend of increased crime in these areas.

Look. Just so you know. My point here was never that high incarceration rates in the US resulted in lower crime. Or that other countries need to lock more people up for longer to reduce crime. Most of the time when I throw something like that out there for discussion I'm just trying to people to think about it. The first response I got was that correlation is weak because "other countries". I questioned that because A. What's good for the goose isn't always good for the gander. B. Crime rates in at some of those other countries haven't fallen all that much if at all.
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Sex offenders at work
(01-24-2019, 10:15 PM)PopeyesPappy Wrote:
(01-24-2019, 12:25 PM)SYZ Wrote: The figures cited in the above link are over 10 years out of date...

Yea the numbers are old, but that is only because historical tabulated numbers for the last decade are hard to come by for some reason. While I actually enjoy analyzing the numbers for this type of stuff, I don't have the time to go through the annual reports one year at a time to get the data.

I guess I have the time (I'm retired) to do a more thorough data search to ensure I don't misrepresent
current statistics by citing data that's 10+ years old.

Quote:What you listed is just 3 years for one state. That may be representative of long term national trend. It may not be.


The latest data I could find covering Australia as a whole is from 2017:

• The number of Homicide victims decreased 9%

• The number of victims of Murder and Attempted murder decreased 11%

• Manslaughter numbers increased by 15 to 44 victims

• Sexual assaults increased 8%

• The number of victims of Robbery increased 2%

• Unlawful entry with intent numbers decreased 7%

• Motor vehicle theft decreased 8%

• The number of victims of Other theft offences decreased 5%

Recorded Crime-Victims, Australia, 4510.0, 2017, 28/06/2018.
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Sex offenders at work
(01-23-2019, 02:43 AM)Tres Leches Wrote:
(01-22-2019, 09:32 PM)Dr H Wrote:
(01-19-2019, 02:13 AM)Tres Leches Wrote: But who am I kidding, those are just rhetorical questions. I wouldn't give a convicted rapist any benefit of doubt. There's a reason there's a sex offender registry - because there's a high likelihood that they'll reoffend.

Ostensibly that's the reason.

Nationwide the recidivism rate for sex crimes is about 25% (21-28%, depending on state/location).

The recidivism rate for drug crimes is 78%.
The recidivism rate for property crime (theft, burglary, auto theft, etc.) is about 67%.
For non-sex related violent assault:  60%
For murder:  50%

(See, for example:  here, and here.)

So where are the property crime, drug crime, assault, and murder registries?

There's a murder registry called "Google". Every murder in my area ends up on the news and the accused's name are always publicized.

I submit that being in the news when accused -- before trial, sentencing, and prison -- is just a little  different that being required  by the judge to be there after  you've served your full sentence, as a condition for your release.

Quote:As for drug crime and assaults, I'm not sure if there's a registry. I'd have to look that up.

I'm puzzled why you're comparing property crimes to sex assaults - even listing it first on your list above.

I am doing no such thing.  This list is in order of descending recidivism rate.  Murder and violent assault are not property crimes.

I am comparing recidivism rates -- which have been advanced (in the case of sex crime) -- to be a practical, and/or moral justification for subjecting someone to essentially a life sentence on a certain level.  If we feel the justification is valid in the one case, then it logically behooves us to examine whether it might by morally or practically valid in the others.  

And if not, then we need to analyze the real reasons why we choose to treat one category of crime differently from the others, which I suspect has little to do with recidivism statistics or other objective measures.

Quote:The only conclusion I'm able to reach is that women were once - and still are by some - viewed as property so it was seen as perfectly fine for men to violate their bodies. I guess you're a holdover from that era, sadly.

You conclude incorrectly, as I believe you will see if you re-examine my point a little more closely.
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Sex offenders at work
(01-23-2019, 04:02 PM)Assassin Wrote:
(01-23-2019, 03:41 PM)PopeyesPappy Wrote:
(01-23-2019, 12:53 PM)Assassin Wrote: To be fair, murder has a longer sentence so less probability to redo it.

A person could even argue that crime rates decrease as incarceration rates increase.

[Image: us_violent_crime_rate_and_incarceration_rate.jpg]

If a prisoner gets 2 years for theft, they has plenty of time to end up back in prison. If someone gets a life sentence for murder where is the chance to get back into prison?

Depends on where the sentence was handed down.  In some states a person sentenced to "life" may be eligible for parole in anywhere from 5-15 years, depending on circumstances.
" I have nothing to say and I am saying it and that is poetry. "
                                                                                 -- John Cage
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