Climate Change

[Alan V]

"Recent research is showing that trees, especially in tropical wetlands, are a major source of the second most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, methane. The knowledge that certain woodlands are high methane emitters should help guide reforestation projects in many parts of the world."

"Nobody is arguing that trees are therefore bad for climate and should be cut down. Indeed, in most cases, their carbon storage capability easily outweighs their methane emissions. But in a world where corporations plant trees to offset their carbon emissions, we badly need to know if their numbers add up, or if they are undermined by the complex chemistry of trees and methane."

https://e360.yale.edu/features/scientist...s3ux-qigZ4

[Alan V]

"India is among the countries expected to be worst affected by the impacts of climate crisis, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) say that even if the world succeeds in cutting carbon emissions, limiting the predicted rise in average global temperatures, parts of India will become so hot they will test the limits of human survivability. 'The future of heat waves is looking worse even with significant mitigation of climate change, and much worse without mitigation,' said Elfatih Eltahir, a professor of hydrology and climate at MIT."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/03/asia/indi...index.html

[SYZ]

Marble Bar in Western Australia (WA) is listed by the Guinness Book of Records for
recording 161 consecutive days of temperature that never dropped below 37.8°C (100ºF)

[Alan V]

Marble Bar in Western Australia (WA) is listed by the Guinness Book of Records for
recording 161 consecutive days of temperature that never dropped below 37.8°C (100ºF)

Wow.  Is that something recent?

Considering that 3C translates to 5.4F, and we will likely go beyond that increase in global average surface temperature this century, I wonder how people will cope with 161 consecutive days of temperatures which are never below 105F. Our bodies couldn't take being outside for long.

[Alan V]

"Amazon deforestation accelerated more than 60% in June over the same period last year, in what environmentalists say is a sign that the policies of President Jair Bolsonaro are starting to take effect."

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/02/ameri...ajFDTzyMWo

[Alan V]

"Climate scientist Michael Mann is calling for a 'world war-type' mobilization to address climate change. 'We do need a world-war type mobilization and that means putting in place incentives to move our economy as quickly as we can away from fossil fuels to renewable energy,' Mann, a scientist at Pennsylvania State University who is known for taking on climate skeptics, told Hill.TV in an interview that aired Wednesday. 'Now how we do that, there’s a legitimate policy debate to be had about how we do that but there isn’t a legitimate debate to be had anymore about the need to do that,”'he added. Mann warned that lawmakers should take immediate action, arguing that the Trump administration is actively seeking to dismantle 50 years of environmental protections put in place by both Democratic and Republican administrations."

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/451497...s-qlOcc4GI

[mordant]

Marble Bar in Western Australia (WA) is listed by the Guinness Book of Records for
recording 161 consecutive days of temperature that never dropped below 37.8°C (100ºF)

Wow.  Is that something recent?

Considering that 3C translates to 5.4F, and we will likely go beyond that increase in global average surface temperature this century, I wonder how people will cope with 161 consecutive days of temperatures which are never below 105F.  Our bodies couldn't take being outside for long.

I used to live in the Phoenix area and I can tell you that when it gets much above 105 -- certainly above 110 -- you do not want to be outside even in the shade for more than a few minutes without risking sunstroke, particularly if you're elderly or a child. The summer before I arrived it hit 117 one day and the airports shut down because the gas/air carb mixture charts for aircraft stop at 115. It wasn't unheard of to see summer temps of 110, 112, 113, etc. And keep in mind, on such days, you can step outside at midnight to be greeted by temps in the low 90s. It's like sticking your head in an oven, especially during "monsoon season" when the humidity chimes in, generally over 40% -- which sort of ruins the "but it's a dry heat" rejoinder for several weeks out of every year.

[Alan V]

I used to live in the Phoenix area and I can tell you that when it gets much above 105 -- certainly above 110 -- you do not want to be outside even in the shade for more than a few minutes without risking sunstroke, particularly if you're elderly or a child. The summer before I arrived it hit 117 one day and the airports shut down because the gas/air carb mixture charts for aircraft stop at 115. It wasn't unheard of to see summer temps of 110, 112, 113, etc. And keep in mind, on such days, you can step outside at midnight to be greeted by temps in the low 90s. It's like sticking your head in an oven, especially during "monsoon season" when the humidity chimes in, generally over 40% -- which sort of ruins the "but it's a dry heat" rejoinder for several weeks out of every year.

That makes me think Phoenix will likely become intolerable during some months too, since what I was speculating about wasn't even considering heat waves.

Even in northeast Texas where I lived between 1984 and 1993, summer months already meant weeks of high temperatures in the 90s and 100s.

[mordant]

I used to live in the Phoenix area and I can tell you that when it gets much above 105 -- certainly above 110 -- you do not want to be outside even in the shade for more than a few minutes without risking sunstroke, particularly if you're elderly or a child. The summer before I arrived it hit 117 one day and the airports shut down because the gas/air carb mixture charts for aircraft stop at 115. It wasn't unheard of to see summer temps of 110, 112, 113, etc. And keep in mind, on such days, you can step outside at midnight to be greeted by temps in the low 90s. It's like sticking your head in an oven, especially during "monsoon season" when the humidity chimes in, generally over 40% -- which sort of ruins the "but it's a dry heat" rejoinder for several weeks out of every year.

That makes me think Phoenix will likely become intolerable during some months too, since what I was speculating about wasn't even considering heat waves.

Even in northeast Texas where I lived between 1984 and 1993, summer months already meant weeks of high temperatures in the 90s and 100s.

Indeed, although, the average degrees of warming are worse further north (Canada, Alaska, the Arctic). The most immediate problem they're facing is that their main source of water, the Colorado River, has been nearly sucked dry. And Lake Mead and other such bodies are at record lows also. It's a primary reason I'd never go back there, although there are aspects of desert living that I do miss.

[abaris]

Indeed, although, the average degrees of warming are worse further north (Canada, Alaska, the Arctic).

It's pretty bad in central Europe also. Compared to previous decades we have a rise in temperature of about 8 degrees Celsius in comparison to previous decades. Last june was the hottest in recorded history, averaging about 4.7 degrees over the long term medium.

[Alan V]

That makes me think Phoenix will likely become intolerable during some months too, since what I was speculating about wasn't even considering heat waves.

Even in northeast Texas where I lived between 1984 and 1993, summer months already meant weeks of high temperatures in the 90s and 100s.

Indeed, although, the average degrees of warming are worse further north (Canada, Alaska, the Arctic). The most immediate problem they're facing is that their main source of water, the Colorado River, has been nearly sucked dry. And Lake Mead and other such bodies are at record lows also. It's a primary reason I'd never go back there, although there are aspects of desert living that I do miss.

It's pretty bad in central Europe also. Compared to previous decades we have a rise in temperature of about 8 degrees Celsius in comparison to previous decades. Last june was the hottest in recorded history, averaging about 4.7 degrees over the long term medium.

That reminds me of another detail.  Warming is higher over the continents than over the ocean, and at northern latitudes than near the equator.  Of course, it wouldn't take too much more heat to make countries along the equator intolerable, but the point is that even the 3C average of warming could mean much higher temperatures than that in certain locations where people live.

"The historical average number of days per year in Phoenix that hit 100 degrees is a mind-bending 92. But that number is rapidly rising as climate change bears down on America's fifth-largest city. 'It's currently the fastest warming big city in the US,' meteorologist and former Arizonan Eric Holthaus told me in an email. A study from Climate Central last year projects that Phoenix's summer weather will be on average three to five degrees [F] hotter by 2050. Meanwhile, that average number of 100-degree days will have skyrocketed by almost 40, to 132, according to another 2016 Climate Central study. (For reference, over a comparable period, New York City is expected to go from two to 15 100-degree days.)"

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/vb7mq...ate-change

[GenesisNemesis]

By the way for anyone interested Paul Beckwith does great videos on climate change. He's a climate science educator.

https://www.youtube.com/user/PaulHBeckwith/videos

[SYZ]

Marble Bar in Western Australia (WA) is listed by the Guinness Book of Records for
recording 161 consecutive days of temperature that never dropped below 37.8°C (100ºF)

Wow.  Is that something recent?

Nope. It ended on 20 April 1924. Marble Bar also holds the record for the longest running heatwave in Australia.

[Alan V]

"Climate action lawsuits against governments and corporations have spread across 28 countries, according to a new analysis. The study reveals that more than 1,300 legal actions concerning climate change have been brought since 1990. While the US – with 1,023 cases – remains the leader in climate litigation, other countries are increasingly seeing individuals, charities and states take action."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/...0ACF0esDs0

[Alan V]

"A March news release from the U.S. Geological Survey touted a new study that could be useful for infrastructure planning along the California coastline. At least that’s how the Trump administration conveyed it. The news release hardly stood out. It focused on the methodology of the study rather than its major findings, which showed that climate change could have a withering effect on California’s economy by inundating real estate over the next few decades. An earlier draft of the news release, written by researchers, was sanitized by Trump administration officials, who removed references to the dire effects of climate change after delaying its release for several months, according to three federal officials who saw it. The study, published in the journal Scientific Reports, showed that California, the world’s fifth-largest economy, would face more than $100 billion in damages related to climate change and sea-level rise by the end of the century. It found that three to seven times more people and businesses than previously believed would be exposed to severe flooding."

" 'It’s been made clear to us that we’re not supposed to use climate change in press releases anymore. They will not be authorized,' one federal researcher said, speaking anonymously for fear of reprisal."

https://www.scientificamerican.com/artic...w8I_XOe660

[Alan V]

"In 2050, London's climate will feel more like Barcelona's, according to a new climate change study. If this sounds like a pleasant warming -- think again. London could be facing severe drought, as Barcelona did in 2008, when it nearly ran out of drinking water and reservoirs ran close to dry. Hundreds of other major cities worldwide could be facing droughts, flooding, storms, and other climate catastrophes, said the study, which was conducted by the Crowther Lab at ETH Zurich University. Some of these climate effects aren't even known or predictable yet -- a fifth of cities, including Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, and Singapore, are facing conditions so extreme they don't currently exist anywhere in the world, according to the study. The study predicted the future climate conditions of 520 major cities worldwide, and paired those predictions with the conditions of cities today. By 2050, Madrid will feel more like Marrakesh, Seattle will feel like San Francisco, and New York will feel like Virginia Beach, according to the report."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/11/europe/cl...index.html

[Alan V]

Here are some interesting pictures of what the earth would look like if all the ice melted.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magaz...line-maps/

"The maps here show the world as it is now, with only one difference: All the ice on land has melted and drained into the sea, raising it 216 feet and creating new shorelines for our continents and inland seas. There are more than five million cubic miles of ice on Earth, and some scientists say it would take more than 5,000 years to melt it all. If we continue adding carbon to the atmosphere, we’ll very likely create an ice-free planet, with an average temperature of perhaps 80 degrees Fahrenheit instead of the current 58."

[SYZ]

Where I live, our town is 21m (69 feet) above sea level, so I've only got around 120 years to pack my stuff and move out.

[Alan V]

Where I live, our town is 21m (69 feet) above sea level, so I've only got around 120 years to pack my stuff and move out.

The fact that most of the consequences of climate change will fall on future people is likely the reason most of us do little to nothing about it, even though we are the causes.

[Alan V]

"By 2025, New York's Staten Island will be fortified by a towering seawall running 5.3 miles along the coast, an engineering feat designed to ward off a growing threat. The climate crisis is predicted to create more powerful and extreme weather systems all over the world, and coastal engineers are racing to respond with structures to reduce their impact."

https://www.cnn.com/style/article/staten...index.html

[Alan V]

"A meteorologist’s daily forecast focuses on weather. Meteorologists generally say that forecasts become less reliable if they go beyond a week or perhaps 10 days. Climatologists, on the other hand, define climate as the average weather over a 30-year period and over a much larger geographic area."

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2...Br9kt6VM0Q

[Alan V]

'The cost of renewable energy sources like wind and solar continue to fall drastically, and it was only a matter of time before they were cheaper than fossil fuels. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) believes that’ll happen by 2020 based on their new report. Prices could be as low as three cents per kilowatt-hour for onshore wind and solar photovoltaic projects over the next two years. Across the board, average costs of producing renewable energy projects have been very competitive. Hydropower was the cheapest at five cents per kilowatt-hour, onshore wind at six cents, and bioenergy and geothermal sources at seven cents. Solar projects are still high in comparison at 10 cents per kWh, but that figure has dropped 73 percent since 2010. That’s led to residential systems being 67 percent cheaper."

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/r...7KhX39d1VU

[Alan V]

"Americans will need to cut their average consumption of beef by about 40% and Europeans by 22%, for the world to continue to feed the 10 billion people expected to live on this planet in 2050, according to a new report. That means each person could have about a burger and a half each week. This calculation comes from the World Resources Institute, a global research nonprofit that supports better use of natural resources to sustain a growing population. Its research looks at agriculture, the climate crisis, poverty and gender, among other topics."

"About 9.8 billion people will live on the planet by 2050, that's up from 7 billion people in 2010. Demand for food is projected to outpace population growth, increasing by more than 50% as people's incomes in the developing world are expected to increase, according to the report. The demand for meat and dairy is expected to rise even faster, by nearly 70%. The global demand for ruminant meat, meaning beef, sheep and goat, is expected to be even higher, at 88%."

"Beef, goat and sheep production use up a lot of land and resources. It requires more than 20 times more land and generates more than 20 times more greenhouse gas emissions than pulses, a plant that is in the legume family -- dry beans, dry peas, chickpeas, lentils -- per gram of protein, according to the report. Cows grow and reproduce slower than pigs and poultry and that means they need to eat a lot more and need more land and water. Beef alone is responsible for 41% of livestock greenhouse gas emissions, and that livestock accounts for 14.5% of total global emissions, according to the United Nations. That's more than direct emissions from the transportation sector."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/17/health/be...index.html

[Alan V]

"Taking a long-haul flight generates more carbon emissions than the average person in dozens of countries around the world produces in a whole year, a new Guardian analysis has found. The figures highlight the disproportionate carbon footprint of those who can afford to fly, with even a short-haul return flight from London to Edinburgh contributing more CO2 than the mean annual emissions of a person in Uganda or Somalia. 2019 is forecast to be another record-breaking year for air travel, with passengers expected to fly a total of 8.1tn km, up 5% from last year and more than 300% since 1990."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/...sFaCgnI1wk

[GenesisNemesis]

https://earther.gizmodo.com/satellite-im...1836500468

Vast stretches of Earth’s northern latitudes are on fire right now. Hot weather has engulfed a huge portion of the Arctic, from Alaska to Greenland to Siberia. That’s helped create conditions ripe for wildfires, including some truly massive ones burning in remote parts of the region that are being seen by satellites.

Pierre Markuse, a satellite imagery processing guru, has documented some of the blazes attacking the forests and peatlands of the Arctic. The imagery reveals the delicate landscapes with braided rivers, towering mountains, and vast swaths of forest, all under a thick blanket of smoke.

In Alaska, those images show some of the damage wrought by wildfires that have burned more than 1.6 million acres of land this year. Huge fires have sent smoke streaming cities earlier this month, riding on the back of Anchorage’s first 90 degree day ever recorded. The image below show some of the more remote fires in Alaska as well as the Swan Lake Fire, which was responsible for the smoke swallowing Anchorage in late June and earlier this month.

And: 

 Intense hot conditions have also fanned flames in Siberia. The remote nature of many of the fires there means they’re burning out of control, often, through swaths of peatland that’s normally frozen or soggy. But as Thomas Smith, a fire expert at London School of Economics, noted on Twitter, there are ample signs the peat dried out due to the heat and is ablaze. That’s worrisome since peat is rich in carbon, and fires can release it into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. Peat fires can also burn underground into the winter and reignite in spring.

And:

All told, northern fires released as much carbon dioxide in June as the entire country of Sweden does in a year, according to data crunched by the European Union’s Copernicus program. The agency said the wildfire activity is “unprecedented” amidst what was, incidentally, the hottest June ever recorded for the planet with the Arctic particularly sweltering. All that carbon dioxide released by fires represents one of the scarier feedback loops of climate change as hot weather ensures more fires, which releases carbon dioxide and makes climate change worse. The boreal forest that rings the northern portion of the world is witnessing a period of wildfire activity unseen in at least 10,000 years, and this summer is another worrying datapoint.