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The stock market

The stock market
(05-14-2019, 01:38 AM)jerry mcmasters Wrote:
(05-14-2019, 01:17 AM)Dom Wrote:
(05-14-2019, 12:38 AM)jerry mcmasters Wrote: I agree with all that but see it generally as an economic issue with winners and losers, some American and some Chinese.  Low tariffs equal Chinese producers winners and American producers losers but American importers winners, and conversely, high tariffs equal US producer winners and US importers and Chinese producers losers.

This is a gamble by Trump, and this attempt to stimulate American producers and the Americans then employ may blow up in his face, but I don't see how it can be characterized as you have as follows:

"allows him to take from the people and give to his base. US businesses (importers) have to pay the tariffs to the US government. That money can be used as bail-out for groups of people in his base that are hurt by the tariffs(like farmers). The importers, meanwhile, pass the cost on to the American consumer. So, we will all be paying for it, except for some groups tweety wants to foster."

The point is, even if failed and misguided, to stimulate and support American manufacturers and the Americans it employs.  It's patently not to raise taxes (through tariffs) to pay for bailouts, unless you can somehow demonstrate that.

The farmers are sitting on crops that China won't buy anymore, they found other places to get their produce. So, Tweety is going to take some of the money he took from our importers and give it to the farmers. So, he is re-distributing the wealth from the additional taxes we end up paying to his base.

You will not get the US to manufacture many of these parts. There is no money in it here because of the cost of labor. If we do descend to having to lower wages to produce everyday things, it will not be pretty.
 

I'm taking issue with your description of motivation.  I can accept an attempt to fight and win, but then fuck up and lose, a tariff war.  Losing would be something like you say, "farmers are sitting on crops that China won't buy anymore, they found other places to get their produce."  That is a risk of tariff war.  And the other risk is, as you say, that Americans will never manufacture such things because of the cost of labor.  The gamble is that if Chinese labor is tariffed out of the market, then Americans will manufacture these things because, though more expensive, it will be cheaper than highly tariffed foreign competition.  That may be wrong and misguided.  That is another risk of tariff war.  But I have trouble accepting all of this as if it's some kind of Machiavellian strategy by Trump to fuck his enemies and pay off his base.  "This allows him to take from the people and give to his base."  I don't see that at all.

I doubt it's Machiavellian strategy. He has been talking about the trade with China for years. But it is the obvious choice, given the facts of the situation, to an opportunist who needs to keep his base at all cost.
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The stock market
Today was a stunt, nicely engineered by the Chinese who know how Trump ticks.
They did it on purpose. How do we know this ? The deadline for negotiations is June 1st.
There is time to negotiate ... meanwhile they thought they would send a message to the Orange Fuckface, as he closely follows the Dow.
Early this AM, before the market opened, when the futures were so far down, the Chinese said they were considering dumping (liquidating) large quantities of US treasuries, (as in trillions, which they own). That caused a panic.
Test
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The stock market
(05-14-2019, 01:50 AM)Bucky Ball Wrote: Today was a stunt, nicely engineered by the Chinese who know how how Trump ticks.
They did it on purpose. How do we know this ? The deadline for negotiations is June 1st.
There is time to negotiate ... meanwhile they thought they would send a message to the Orange Fuckface, as he closely follows the Dow.
Early this AM, before the market opened, when the futures were so far down, the Chinese said they were considering dumping (liquidating) large quantities of US treasuries, (as in trillions, which they own). That caused a panic.

Yeah, it's kind of dumb to pick a money war with someone you owe trillions to. But then, that's never held tweety back.
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The stock market
Word on the online peanut gallery is that Trump, ever the grifter and con artist, is playing up the trade war so he and who knows who else can short the US stock market and make some $$. Wouldn't surprise me.
We'll see if Trump in the next few days suddenly summons the press to the Rose Garden and is "proud to announce a breakthrough deal on trade with the Chinese".

-Teresa
There is in the universe only one true divide, one real binary, life and death. Either you are living or you are not. Everything else is molten, malleable.

-Susan Faludi, In the Darkroom
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The stock market
(05-14-2019, 01:46 AM)Dom Wrote:
(05-14-2019, 01:38 AM)jerry mcmasters Wrote:
(05-14-2019, 01:17 AM)Dom Wrote: The farmers are sitting on crops that China won't buy anymore, they found other places to get their produce. So, Tweety is going to take some of the money he took from our importers and give it to the farmers. So, he is re-distributing the wealth from the additional taxes we end up paying to his base.

You will not get the US to manufacture many of these parts. There is no money in it here because of the cost of labor. If we do descend to having to lower wages to produce everyday things, it will not be pretty.
 

I'm taking issue with your description of motivation.  I can accept an attempt to fight and win, but then fuck up and lose, a tariff war.  Losing would be something like you say, "farmers are sitting on crops that China won't buy anymore, they found other places to get their produce."  That is a risk of tariff war.  And the other risk is, as you say, that Americans will never manufacture such things because of the cost of labor.  The gamble is that if Chinese labor is tariffed out of the market, then Americans will manufacture these things because, though more expensive, it will be cheaper than highly tariffed foreign competition.  That may be wrong and misguided.  That is another risk of tariff war.  But I have trouble accepting all of this as if it's some kind of Machiavellian strategy by Trump to fuck his enemies and pay off his base.  "This allows him to take from the people and give to his base."  I don't see that at all.

I doubt it's Machiavellian strategy. He has been talking about the trade with China for years. But it is the obvious choice, given the facts of the situation, to an opportunist who needs to keep his base at all cost.

You're explaining an economic issue in political terms when it is more easily understood as economic.  Of course everything is political in the largest sense, but Trump has something to gain by tariffs if, and it is as I said a gamble, that they benefit American manufacturers and therefore American employees of those manufacturers.  There is no weird strategy of (your words) "US businesses (importers) have to pay the tariffs to the US government. That money can be used as bail-out for groups of people in his base that are hurt by the tariffs(like farmers)."
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The stock market
(05-14-2019, 01:46 AM)Dom Wrote: I doubt it's Machiavellian strategy.

Imho he is too dumb to even spell "Machiavelli", let alone have a *strategy*.
R.I.P. Hannes
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The stock market
Now the trade war with Mexico:


Markets
May 31, 7:59 PM UTC


Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
DOW
24,815.04
▼ 354.84 (1.41%)


NASDAQ Composite Index
NASDAQ
7,459.88
▼ 107.84 (1.43%)


S&P 500 Index
S&P 500
2,753.27
▼ 35.59 (1.28%)
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The stock market
(05-14-2019, 06:57 AM)Deesse23 Wrote:
(05-14-2019, 01:46 AM)Dom Wrote: I doubt it's Machiavellian strategy.

Imho he is too dumb to even spell "Machiavelli", let alone have a *strategy*.

I'm sure the Orange Shitgibbon thinks Machiavelli was one of his mafia buddies from Atlantic City.
Robert G. Ingersoll : “No man with a sense of humor ever founded a religion.”
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The stock market
So question for those of you in the market.

My wife and I both have modest retirement accounts under management at Fidelity. This amounts to significant fees based on the total account value, not on gains or losses.

I'm thinking of ditching those guys, buying some index funds and looking the other way.

I'm given to understand that managed funds haven't done a great job of outperforming index funds. That's a pretty generic statement though.

Has anyone here done this? If so what index funds are you using?
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The stock market
Dow       +0.76%  25,524.06  /  +191.88
NASDAQ +0.49% 7,564.11  /  +36.99
S&P        +0.71% 2,823.20  /  +19.70

So, wherefor the optimism?  I don't get it.
“Religion is excellent stuff for keeping common people quiet. 
Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich.”
― Napoleon Bonaparte
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The stock market
(06-02-2019, 03:29 PM)mordant Wrote: So question for those of you in the market.

My wife and I both have modest retirement accounts under management at Fidelity. This amounts to significant fees based on the total account value, not on gains or losses.

I'm thinking of ditching those guys, buying some index funds and looking the other way.

I'm given to understand that managed funds haven't done a great job of outperforming index funds. That's a pretty generic statement though.

Has anyone here done this? If so what index funds are you using?

Per Google:

Best index funds for May 2019
*Fidelity ZERO Large Cap Index.
*Vanguard S&P 500 ETF.
*SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.
*iShares Core S&P 500 ETF.
*Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund.

On index funds versus mutual funds:

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/t...dex-funds/

I have an IRA with Voya, so I can't speak for index funds. However, now I think I should have investigated them before committing to Voya.
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The stock market
(06-05-2019, 06:40 PM)Chas Wrote: Dow       +0.76%  25,524.06  /  +191.88
NASDAQ +0.49% 7,564.11  /  +36.99
S&P        +0.71% 2,823.20  /  +19.70

So, wherefor the optimism?  I don't get it.

So some years ago there was a discussion about raising the height of the basket in the NBA from the current 10 feet because of all the dunking that was going on.  The counter-argument, which seems to have prevailed, is that the tallest players will still be closest to the basket no matter how high it is.

Trumpty's scumbag corporate backers know that however much they lose they will still be far richer than the poor and middle classes that the Orange Shitgibbon wants to drive into 3d World style poverty. 


Good to see you Chas.  You had some of us worried.  You were a little too "terse" there for a while!
Robert G. Ingersoll : “No man with a sense of humor ever founded a religion.”
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The stock market
(06-05-2019, 06:40 PM)Chas Wrote: Dow       +0.76%  25,524.06  /  +191.88
NASDAQ +0.49% 7,564.11  /  +36.99
S&P        +0.71% 2,823.20  /  +19.70

So, wherefor the optimism?  I don't get it.

Hey Chas, we missed you!
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The stock market
Thanks for noticing.  Big Grin

Life has been busy, even a bit hectic, for a while.  Everything is OK, just busy.  

As some may remember, I sold the house and orchard a year ago and have been adjusting to apartment life.  I'm still struggling with that.

Lately, the IRS and I have been having a dance, and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration (USCIS) required a renewal of my I-151, which has now become annoyingly complex and expensive.

Shooting pictures and shooting clays have been getting a lot of my attention since March.

It seems there is a lot to get caught up here on AD.  Undecided

P.S. I need a new picture hosting/sharing site; one with hot linking.
“Religion is excellent stuff for keeping common people quiet. 
Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich.”
― Napoleon Bonaparte
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The stock market
(06-06-2019, 04:28 AM)Chas Wrote: Thanks for noticing.  Big Grin

Life has been busy, even a bit hectic, for a while.  Everything is OK, just busy.  

As some may remember, I sold the house and orchard a year ago and have been adjusting to apartment life.  I'm still struggling with that.

Lately, the IRS and I have been having a dance, and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration (USCIS) required a renewal of my I-151, which has now become annoyingly complex and expensive.

Shooting pictures and shooting clays have been getting a lot of my attention since March.

It seems there is a lot to get caught up here on AD.  Undecided

P.S. I need a new picture hosting/sharing site; one with hot linking.

Postimage.org

I danced with USCIS also, expensive and complex is right.
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The stock market
So, an increase in tariffs on China, this time consumer goods, plus a stagnating job market and we have this:


 Markets
August 1, 9:10 PM UTC


DOW
26,520.16
▼ 63.26 (0.24%)


NASDAQ
8,111.12
▼ 64.30 (0.79%)


S&P 500
2,953.56
▼ 26.82 (0.90%)
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The stock market
I'm so tired of this. Why do people only post when it's down? 

https://www.google.com/search?q=dow+grap...e&ie=UTF-8

https://econofact.org/the-costs-of-tarif...-trade-war
Being told you're delusional does not necessarily mean you're mental. 
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The stock market
(08-02-2019, 03:58 PM)brewerb Wrote: I'm so tired of this. Why do people only post when it's down? 

https://www.google.com/search?q=dow+grap...e&ie=UTF-8

https://econofact.org/the-costs-of-tarif...-trade-war

Because when it's running as normal, all there is to discuss is individual stocks, and there is no interest here. Also, I am not in the market anymore, so I don't know what individual stocks are doing. 

Big dips or raises in the general markets, however, do affect everyone, albeit in indirect ways. So I post those when they occur.
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The stock market
(08-02-2019, 03:58 PM)brewerb Wrote: I'm so tired of this. Why do people only post when it's down? 

https://www.google.com/search?q=dow+grap...e&ie=UTF-8

https://econofact.org/the-costs-of-tarif...-trade-war


Probably because President Shitferbrains brought this on all by himself.
Robert G. Ingersoll : “No man with a sense of humor ever founded a religion.”
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The stock market
(06-05-2019, 06:50 PM)Alan V Wrote:
(06-02-2019, 03:29 PM)mordant Wrote: So question for those of you in the market.

My wife and I both have modest retirement accounts under management at Fidelity. This amounts to significant fees based on the total account value, not on gains or losses.

I'm thinking of ditching those guys, buying some index funds and looking the other way.

I'm given to understand that managed funds haven't done a great job of outperforming index funds. That's a pretty generic statement though.

Has anyone here done this? If so what index funds are you using?

Per Google:

Best index funds for May 2019
*Fidelity ZERO Large Cap Index.
*Vanguard S&P 500 ETF.
*SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.
*iShares Core S&P 500 ETF.
*Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund.

On index funds versus mutual funds:

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/t...dex-funds/

I have an IRA with Voya, so I can't speak for index funds.  However, now I think I should have investigated them before committing to Voya.

A belated thanks for this.

For now, we've changed our risk tolerance from 8 on a scale of 1 to 10, down to 4. This will change the mix to something less stock-heavy and more bond-heavy. I think that will hedge us as I now see this bull market as artificially propped up to get Trump re-elected; it is already historically over-long and can't last much longer. I may go to an index fund next year, but for now, that's a way to ease out from the bleeding edge.

On the other hand it doesn't lower my management fees, and is guaranteed not just to minimize coming losses but to also minimize the bounce on the other side, since my portfolio is now more conservative / value preserving with less risk-taking to theoretically produce more gains in the next up market.

So at some point I will probably just say screw it, fire the managers and put it all in index funds of some kind.
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The stock market
China says it will devalue currency and stop buying agricultural products from the US.




Markets
August 5, 6:26 PM UTC

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
DOW
25,651.54
▼ 833.47 (3.15%)

NASDAQ Composite Index
NASDAQ
7,718.35
▼ 285.72 (3.57%)

S&P 500 Index
S&P 500
2,842.02
▼ 90.03 (3.07%)
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The stock market
(08-05-2019, 06:39 PM)Dom Wrote: China says it will devalue currency and stop buying agricultural products from the US.




Markets
August 5, 6:26 PM UTC

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
DOW
25,651.54
▼ 833.47 (3.15%)

NASDAQ Composite Index
NASDAQ
7,718.35
▼ 285.72 (3.57%)

S&P 500 Index
S&P 500
2,842.02
▼ 90.03 (3.07%)

Our 40/60 portfolio was only down 0.40%
“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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The stock market
Trump rolled back some of the China tariffs:


Markets
August 13, 2:12 PM UTC

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
DOW
26,364.79
▲ 467.08 (1.80%)

NASDAQ Composite Index
NASDAQ
8,015.53
▲ 152.12 (1.93%)

S&P 500 Index
S&P 500
2,922.79
▲ 39.70 (1.38%)
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The stock market
The Orange Shitgibbon folds like a cheap camera once again!
Robert G. Ingersoll : “No man with a sense of humor ever founded a religion.”
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The stock market
But he's destabilized the markets.
There is a recession coming in 2020.
He can fool some of the people some of the time, ... he can't fool all the people all the time.
Gold is at a 7 year high and rising, (people don't trust other investments) and the dollar is dropping (2 and 2/3 year low).
He's fucked the economy.
Test
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