People do keep dying.
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Humans will be extinct in 100 years
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(10-28-2019, 04:07 PM)Aegon Wrote:(10-28-2019, 03:14 PM)Szuchow Wrote: Assuming it will happen I won't be around so I don't see reason to care. Why care about something inevitable? I can do nothing about death of others and while I sometimes feel flicker of sadness when reading the news it would be dishonest to say that I really care. People die every day and it's just reality of things that can not be changed. It is suffering of others that I care about (but still can't do much to alleviate it).
There is only one good, knowledge, and one evil, ignorance.
Socrates.
10-28-2019, 04:19 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2019, 04:19 PM by Alan V.)
Humans will be extinct in 100 years (10-28-2019, 04:07 PM)Aegon Wrote:(10-28-2019, 03:14 PM)Szuchow Wrote: Assuming it will happen I won't be around so I don't see reason to care. Some people might say humanity deserves it for our own short-sightedness, but many innocent people will suffer the most from climate change. Plus, we were trying to make the world a better place for ourselves and were perhaps too successful. Now we need to change our priorities. (10-28-2019, 04:18 PM)Szuchow Wrote:(10-28-2019, 04:07 PM)Aegon Wrote:(10-28-2019, 03:14 PM)Szuchow Wrote: Assuming it will happen I won't be around so I don't see reason to care. I suppose, but I don't think it's inevitable. Every person who has any sort of knowledge on this stuff keeps putting numbers out there, and I wouldn't call it inevitable because futurologists can't help themselves. (10-28-2019, 04:19 PM)Alan V Wrote:(10-28-2019, 04:07 PM)Aegon Wrote:(10-28-2019, 03:14 PM)Szuchow Wrote: Assuming it will happen I won't be around so I don't see reason to care. That's dumb. What are they, Catholics? We deserve it? Fuck that. (10-28-2019, 04:28 PM)Aegon Wrote:(10-28-2019, 04:19 PM)Alan V Wrote: Some people might say humanity deserves it for our own short-sightedness, but many innocent people will suffer the most from climate change. Plus, we were trying to make the world a better place for ourselves and were perhaps too successful. Now we need to change our priorities. I was trying to answer what I thought Szuchow was saying, so you misunderstood my intention. (10-28-2019, 04:28 PM)Aegon Wrote: I suppose, but I don't think it's inevitable. Every person who has any sort of knowledge on this stuff keeps putting numbers out there, and I wouldn't call it inevitable because futurologists can't help themselves. When I spoke of inevitability I meant death.
There is only one good, knowledge, and one evil, ignorance.
Socrates.
10-28-2019, 04:38 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2019, 04:41 PM by abaris.)
Humans will be extinct in 100 years (10-28-2019, 04:19 PM)Alan V Wrote: Plus, we were trying to make the world a better place for ourselves and were perhaps too successful. I'm not that sure about the "we" thing. There's a god in this world, trumping all the other gods of any denomination. And it's called profit at all costs. Sure, most people strive for making it a better world for themselves and their offspring. But that's not what makes the world tick. It's the gospel of economic growth. And that can't continue for all eternity without utterly destroying our environment. Sooner rather than later it saws off the branch we are sitting on. We're still largely depending on fossils without having sufficient knowledge of what could replace them once they dry out. So there will be wars over the last ressources. Maybe in years, maybe in decades, maybe in a century or so. Same goes for food. If climate change continues at the rate it does, and it changes rapidly, as I can say from my own 50+ years of experience, there will be famine in many regions, but still, dirt is blown into the atmosphere as if there was no tomorrow, because it still nets a nice profit. (10-28-2019, 04:34 PM)Alan V Wrote:(10-28-2019, 04:28 PM)Aegon Wrote:(10-28-2019, 04:19 PM)Alan V Wrote: Some people might say humanity deserves it for our own short-sightedness, but many innocent people will suffer the most from climate change. Plus, we were trying to make the world a better place for ourselves and were perhaps too successful. Now we need to change our priorities. I'm not on "we deserve it" train (though mankind in general isn't something that I hold in high regard) I simply don't care about possibility of species going extinct as humanity as gestalt is too abstract of idea to bother me with it's existence or lack of it. If extinction happen then humans will be just another species lost to the history.
There is only one good, knowledge, and one evil, ignorance.
Socrates.
10-28-2019, 04:53 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2019, 04:55 PM by Alan V.)
Humans will be extinct in 100 years (10-28-2019, 04:38 PM)abaris Wrote:(10-28-2019, 04:19 PM)Alan V Wrote: Plus, we were trying to make the world a better place for ourselves and were perhaps too successful. That reminds me of something David Attenborough said. I'll paraphrase: "If you believe in unlimited economic growth in a limited world, you are either crazy or an economist."
I have to agree with Grympy on this one. It's an argument from authority and one nearly a decade old at that. Fenner is an eminent microbiologist, which does not mean that his crystal ball is much better tuned than any other scientist. I'd trust his opinion more than a banker's or a policeman's, but no more than an astrophysicist.
If you dig into the article you'll find the following: "He said he believes the situation is irreversible, and it is too late because the effects we have had on Earth since industrialization (a period now known to scientists unofficially as the Anthropocene) rivals any effects of ice ages or comet impacts." Emphasis mine. The first bit shows that what we're talking about is a belief. It's an opinion. Granted, it's an opinion based on more information than your average Joe but less than an expert in the field. The second part is simply wrong, and demonstrates the limits of Fenner's understanding of material outside of his discipline. As of this writing, nothing that humans have done has caused global firestorms, nuclear winter, or extinguished 65% of all species. The real problem with making hundred year predictions is that you simply can't take into account the technological innovations, paradigm shifts, or breakthroughs. In 1919 they were celebrating the end of The War To End All Wars, supersonic flight and space exploration were widely viewed to be impossible. The integrated microcircuit wasn't even on the horizon, much less the modern internet and self-driving cars. They couldn't predict 2019 because they couldn't possibly conceive of us. (10-28-2019, 06:11 PM)Paleophyte Wrote: Emphasis mine. The first bit shows that what we're talking about is a belief. It's an opinion. Granted, it's an opinion based on more information than your average Joe but less than an expert in the field. The second part is simply wrong, and demonstrates the limits of Fenner's understanding of material outside of his discipline. As of this writing, nothing that humans have done has caused global firestorms, nuclear winter, or extinguished 65% of all species. I am 56 years old and believe me, if the climate keeps changing at the same rate it does within the last two decades, he may be right. The last 20 years, according to climate experts, were the hottest since temperature is measured. In my region, when I grew up and was in my twens, 30 degrees where hot for a summer's day. Now we're pushing 40 in some spots. Within a short period of 25/30 years. We had a lot of snow in the winter. The last few winters were virtually snow free. This isn't imagination, this is happening within my lifetime. And I have the charts to prove it. https://www.wien.gv.at/statistik/lebensr...ge-zr.html These are the charts for the Vienna region. Look for the keyword "Hitzetage", days when the temperature rose above 30 degrees celsius. Look at how this pans out since the turn of the century. (10-28-2019, 07:33 PM)abaris Wrote: I am 56 years old and believe me, if the climate keeps changing at the same rate it does within the last two decades, he may be right. I'm aware of the changes and yes, he might be right. Emphasis on the "might be". That leaves it in the realm of opinion and belief. That sort of doomsaying isn't helpful in any regard. It just encourages certain reprobates to switch from "Nothing's happening so what's the fuss" denialism to "We're fucked so why bother" inaction. (10-28-2019, 04:07 PM)Aegon Wrote:(10-28-2019, 03:14 PM)Szuchow Wrote: Assuming it will happen I won't be around so I don't see reason to care. Strange ? Nah, I'd say more like honestly selfish. I don't care/worry about things which will happen after I'm gone.Nothing much I will be able to do about them, what with being dead and all. OF I course I care when people die. Sometimes even when I don't know the person. I have lost 7 people in the last two years. This year my mother and closest male friend of nearly 50 years, within 3 months of one another. THAT has knocked me around. May be one reason I was so prickly with SYZ . For that, I'm sorry. In the mean time, I live a day at a time. I do what little I can about say climate change, and stay close to those I love. . The group is beginning to shrink .As the eldest sibling, I'm hoping I'll die before the others.
If it really happens 100 years from now, and you are now 50 or younger, you will be part of the age of warfare and famine that precedes extinction. 100 years doesn't mean all of a sudden everyone drops dead 100 years from now, it means the process is finished then.
10-28-2019, 10:00 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2019, 10:04 PM by abaris.)
Humans will be extinct in 100 years (10-28-2019, 08:52 PM)Paleophyte Wrote: That sort of doomsaying isn't helpful in any regard. It just encourages certain reprobates to switch from "Nothing's happening so what's the fuss" denialism to "We're fucked so why bother" inaction. Or it may be encouraging the opposite. The world may be populated by a large amount of idiots and fatalists, but I guess there's a growing amount of people being aware of the changes also. (10-28-2019, 09:21 PM)Dom Wrote: If it really happens 100 years from now, and you are now 50 or younger, you will be part of the age of warfare and famine that precedes extinction. 100 years doesn't mean all of a sudden everyone drops dead 100 years from now, it means the process is finished then. I'm not necessarilly subscribing to his hundred years prediction. I guess he wanted to paint as grim a picture as possible to shake people up. See what I said above. I take it as a wakeup call and not every Politician in power is a Trump or a Bolsonaro. It's grim food for thought. At least I take it that way.
Not my concern, since I won't be around in another ten years.
“I expect to pass this way but once; any good therefore that I can do, or any kindness that I can show to any fellow creature, let me do it now. Let me not defer or neglect it, for I shall not pass this way again.” (Etienne De Grellet)
(10-28-2019, 11:55 PM)Gwaithmir Wrote: Not my concern, since I won't be around in another ten years.One of my grandmothers lived to be over 100 years old. She wasn't certain, her papers "got lost" on Ellis Island.
10-29-2019, 12:30 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-29-2019, 12:31 AM by Unsapien.)
Humans will be extinct in 100 years
Well Fenner was apparently a virologist that helped create a virus that was used to kill almost something like 90% of the rabbit infestation in Australia at some point.
I haven't read his stuff but he could've probably envisioned constant waves of infections & disease created in the overcrowded cities and spread by war & famine. As for me I'll probably be gone in 25 years, but my kids could easily make it to the hundred year "ending date" (especially if you start counting at the 2010 date). And I imagine that if he could have foreseen this anti-vaxxer stupidity we're plagued with now, he may well have cut a few more decades off his projection. (10-28-2019, 09:19 AM)Gawdzilla Sama Wrote: I am reminded of the way The Stand ended. We are sorta the mammalian cockroaches, aren't we?
On hiatus.
(10-28-2019, 04:19 PM)Alan V Wrote:(10-28-2019, 04:07 PM)Aegon Wrote:(10-28-2019, 03:14 PM)Szuchow Wrote: Assuming it will happen I won't be around so I don't see reason to care. Woe betide the egotistical.
On hiatus.
Damn! I now want to live long enough to see humans become extinct.
No gods necessary
Being an "eminent" microbiologist does not grant one any credence or authority in predicting the future.
There is nothing in microbiology that studies all the topics involved in futurism.
Test
(10-29-2019, 04:43 AM)Bucky Ball Wrote: Being an "eminent" microbiologist does not grant one any credence or authority in predicting the future. I'd say that anybody highly qualified in the sciences—with a long list of awards in the field—is certainly better qualified to posit an opinion about the viability of life on the planet than you or me. Fenner was a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Sciences and a Fellow of the Royal Society. To deny him any scientific accreditation and/or credence is absurd. And judging by your use of the word "futurism" it's obvious you think it means something different to what it actually means. I'm a creationist; I believe that man created God.
10-29-2019, 10:40 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-29-2019, 10:42 AM by Alan V.)
Humans will be extinct in 100 years (10-29-2019, 08:32 AM)SYZ Wrote:(10-29-2019, 04:43 AM)Bucky Ball Wrote: Being an "eminent" microbiologist does not grant one any credence or authority in predicting the future. Expertise in microbiology is entirely pertinent to climate change: Quote: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brie...bgWL-jYrnE (10-28-2019, 02:00 AM)Phaedrus Wrote: According to eminent scientist So ... he thinks we'll have it easy, eh? No wandering dystopian wastelands, eating each other to stay alive? That's a relief. |
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