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The stock market

The stock market
(08-13-2019, 02:27 PM)Dom Wrote: Trump rolled back some of the China tariffs:


Markets
August 13, 2:12 PM UTC

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
DOW
26,364.79
▲ 467.08 (1.80%)

NASDAQ Composite Index
NASDAQ
8,015.53
▲ 152.12 (1.93%)

S&P 500 Index
S&P 500
2,922.79
▲ 39.70 (1.38%)

Not so much rolled back as delayed some of them until December.  He’s done that a couple of times, and then he puts the tariffs on anyway.
god, ugh
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The stock market
(08-13-2019, 04:07 PM)julep Wrote:
(08-13-2019, 02:27 PM)Dom Wrote: Trump rolled back some of the China tariffs:


Markets
August 13, 2:12 PM UTC

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
DOW
26,364.79
▲ 467.08 (1.80%)

NASDAQ Composite Index
NASDAQ
8,015.53
▲ 152.12 (1.93%)

S&P 500 Index
S&P 500
2,922.79
▲ 39.70 (1.38%)

Not so much rolled back as delayed some of them until December.  He’s done that a couple of times, and then he puts the tariffs on anyway.

What is remarkable and also scary is how he can change the markets with one tweet.
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(08-13-2019, 06:07 PM)Dom Wrote:
(08-13-2019, 04:07 PM)julep Wrote:
(08-13-2019, 02:27 PM)Dom Wrote: Trump rolled back some of the China tariffs:


Markets
August 13, 2:12 PM UTC

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
DOW
26,364.79
▲ 467.08 (1.80%)

NASDAQ Composite Index
NASDAQ
8,015.53
▲ 152.12 (1.93%)

S&P 500 Index
S&P 500
2,922.79
▲ 39.70 (1.38%)

Not so much rolled back as delayed some of them until December.  He’s done that a couple of times, and then he puts the tariffs on anyway.

What is remarkable and also scary is how he can change the markets with one tweet.

Indeed. People need to keep their heads, but the thing is that the jokers on Wall street are going to manipulate the market based on the tweets and make a mint. The reaction rate puts me in mind of an oil refinery closing for maintenance or a fire, and the spot market buyers "get twitchy" and the price of fuel goes up. More profits, somewhere, because having worked at a gas station for many years, the station owner doesn't get the difference in pump price- they get about the same margin no matter what. Of course, larger buyers sell more and get a reduced price, but it isn't very much, and they usually sell lower to get more throughput. I have a bunch of money in the stock market, but also have real estate and a fair amount of just plain old cash.
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The stock market
I'm selling all my commercial properties and then going to invest the vast majority in stocks and bonds. This will be interesting.
“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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I'll have to check my portfolio. I know that my money guy has moved some of it to safer harbors in order to reduce my risk.
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The stock market
A few weeks ago, my wife and I changed our risk tolerance from 9 out of 10 to 4 for the folks that manage our portfolio. I basically told them to pretend that I'm a couple years from retirement -- which for all I know I am perhaps 4 or 5 years away, though it's more likely I'll keep working until I'm in my 70s. When I did my own investing I would generally keep quite a bit of money off the table. I'm probably too conservative for my own good there. But this is the longest bull market in history, is probably artificially propped up politically, and has to have reality catch up with it soon. So we pulled back into more of a wealth preservation mode.

Meantime I've been socking as much $$ as possible into a savings account at an internet bank (2.3% interest on simple savings, plus a set of 12 staggered 12 month CDs at 2.8%) so that I have significant cash that I know is safe from any market collapse.
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The stock market
About 9 months ago I nicknamed this economy as being "a bubble of false hope" and predicted that by August the bubble would start to burst.

Trump's rhetoric has kept the bubble growing for the past couple years, but the reality is that it can't sustain the facade in the face of reality.

This is going to be bad, folks. Today's DOW plunge might be massive.
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The stock market
(08-13-2019, 06:07 PM)Dom Wrote:
(08-13-2019, 04:07 PM)julep Wrote:
(08-13-2019, 02:27 PM)Dom Wrote: Trump rolled back some of the China tariffs:


Markets
August 13, 2:12 PM UTC

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
DOW
26,364.79
▲ 467.08 (1.80%)

NASDAQ Composite Index
NASDAQ
8,015.53
▲ 152.12 (1.93%)

S&P 500 Index
S&P 500
2,922.79
▲ 39.70 (1.38%)

Not so much rolled back as delayed some of them until December.  He’s done that a couple of times, and then he puts the tariffs on anyway.

What is remarkable and also scary is how he can change the markets with one tweet.

Perhaps this means the entire system is idiotic?  Consider
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The stock market
(08-14-2019, 01:51 PM)GenesisNemesis Wrote: Perhaps this means the entire system is idiotic?  Consider

I have evolved a theory in the period since Trump's election that the stock market has gone from being the sort of thing Ordinary People didn't invest in (pre-1990) to something that, due to information technology advances, anyone could invest in almost as easily as opening a savings account; to something that is once again the playground of corporations and the elites.

True, "ordinary" people have skin in the game indirectly, through whatever mutual funds their retirement funds are invested in. And anyone can invest $100 or more on any of several web sites, if only they had $100 to spare.

But they are mostly unaware of that and are docile enough to accept that their retirement funds may well not be there when they reach retirement age. Increasingly, even I don't really count on actual retirement actually happening anymore.

But more and more in recent years, there's no middle class with any extra funds to invest in markets or in anything else.

So it's plausible to me that the stock market has continued to ride pretty high. It was of course doing well when Obama left office to begin with, and has enjoyed that momentum (somewhat blunted and stretched out from that slow recovery). But there was also corporate euphoria at the massive deregulation and the dismantling of what corporations see as odious and unworkable environmental regulations and other oversights, etc. That pushed it along. The markets kept going up when from my point of view there's no reason to be optimistic about the long-term viability of the markets or of most anything else, given that we're doing exactly all the wrong things to have a sustainable and prosperous future. We're literally turning the clocks back to the 1950s in terms of policy.

From the point of view of the oligarchs, therefore, life is good and looking better all the time and that's what the stock markets pretty much reflect.

But this can't continue. Pretty soon there will be no one with $$ to buy what the oligarchs sell and the "irrational exuberance" that sustains the markets will implode. At that point the markets will fall, maybe in fits and starts, maybe all at once. Trump may be able to finagle at least plausibly propping them up until after the 2020 election so that claims of unprecedented prosperity can be made. But after that, look out.

What will the plutocrats do at that point? Retire to the bunkers they've been building in New Zealand and protect themselves from being tarred and feathered, with the notion that after the smoke clears they will pick up the pieces and start over again. New opportunities and new fortunes to be made. So it goes.

I am not saying that we're necessarily looking at an overt dystopia, post-election, of the sort that's usually depicted cinematically. We plausibly could be, but we might also make a softer landing where the human want and misery will be spread out in ways we can tell ourselves aren't Really All That Bad. Climate change, in particular, is a slow-motion debacle that would be decades in the making. It's not like half the land currently above sea level in Florida will disappear all at once in the next hurricane. It will just gradually flood and dry out, then flood a little more each time, and the new coastal reality will not be set in stone until maybe as late as the year 2200. We'll gradually move population centers inland, leaving behind the most impoverished and vulnerable to die a slow death, and we will accept that as the New Normal. The ones that will be left will be the top 1 to 2 % in terms of income and net wealth, and the open question is whether the other 98% are containable and otherizable enough to be kept to their ghettoes or if they will die off enough to be manageable.

If I'm even one-fourth correct about the above, the next century is not going to be pretty.
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The stock market
Markets
August 14, 4:02 PM UTC

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
DOW
25,642.01
▼ 637.90 (2.43%)

NASDAQ Composite Index
NASDAQ
7,798.92
▼ 217.44 (2.71%)

S&P 500 Index
S&P 500
2,853.72
▼ 72.60 (2.48%)
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The stock market
Much like with religion, it seems that millennials do not want to play the market, either.

https://20somethingfinance.com/percent-o...own-stock/

Quote:The Percent of Americans who Own Stock Hits Record Low


A recent Gallup poll had some very interesting numbers on stock market participation of Americans, particularly millennials.
For starters, just 52% of Americans have ANY money invested in stocks!
That low participation rate in stock investing is tied with 2013 for a record low in the 19 years that Gallup has been running this survey. And there has been a downward trend since 2007 (a massive 13 point drop!).

Of course, this whole thing is largely a mirage.  Roughly 85% of all stocks are owned by the upper 10% of the country.  Somehow, I think they'll be okay.
Robert G. Ingersoll : “No man with a sense of humor ever founded a religion.”
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The stock market
.... dup
Robert G. Ingersoll : “No man with a sense of humor ever founded a religion.”
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The stock market
(08-14-2019, 01:46 PM)Free Wrote: About 9 months ago I nicknamed this economy as being "a bubble of false hope" and predicted that by August the bubble would start to burst.

Trump's rhetoric has kept the bubble growing for the past couple years, but the reality is that it can't sustain the facade in the face of reality.

This is going to be bad, folks. Today's DOW plunge might be massive.

The timing of my entry into the economy (just got my first full time salaried career position this year) has made me think... well, instead of setting up any investments right now, why not pour money into my savings and wait to buy a ton of stocks once the market crashes?

We'll see.
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The stock market
(08-14-2019, 04:53 PM)Aegon Wrote:
(08-14-2019, 01:46 PM)Free Wrote: About 9 months ago I nicknamed this economy as being "a bubble of false hope" and predicted that by August the bubble would start to burst.

Trump's rhetoric has kept the bubble growing for the past couple years, but the reality is that it can't sustain the facade in the face of reality.

This is going to be bad, folks. Today's DOW plunge might be massive.

The timing of my entry into the economy (just got my first full time salaried career position this year) has made me think... well, instead of setting up any investments right now, why not pour money into my savings and wait to buy a ton of stocks once the market crashes?

We'll see.

That is what I did. I saved and waited.


I jumped and invested when we had the dot com bubble and things like Amazon crashed. I kept re-investing earnings in a variety of companies. From there on, I also auto invested some more every month, automatically transferring out of my bank account. Once a month I studied my portfolio and made changes if needed. No broker.


I cashed out a little while ago, being retired now and not trusting a trump economy. It was a very good strategy.
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(08-14-2019, 04:32 PM)Minimalist Wrote: Roughly 85% of all stocks are owned by the upper 10% of the country.  Somehow, I think they'll be okay.

Yup, that is my point.

Something many don't realize is that the wealth concentration is so intense, you "only" need (depending on who you are listening to) an annual income of around $300K to be in the top 1% -- or if you're going by net worth, about $10 million. That sounds like alot, but actually going into retirement in your early 60's with anything less than around, oh, say $4 million is not enough to guarantee you won't run out of funds with a comfy if not extravagant lifestyle, before you die. For "live comfortably off the interest" you MIGHT get by on $2 million ($46K a year at 2.3% interest) but twice that would be better. And even then you'd have to be careful and have good health insurance and zero debt. Sure, you can play games by using the 4% rule and gambling you'll die soon enough that you won't run out of principal. But it takes quite a bit of net worth to negotiate retirement even with social security and perhaps an employer 401K.

I am in the top 1.5% by income and the top 10% by net worth and yeah, I can see how it's skewed to those at or just above me. For example, my 2018 taxable income was flat over fiscal 2017 with no other life changes, so it was a great comparison -- the exact impact of the Trump tax cuts was to reduce my federal income taxes by a massive 21%. I am using that mini-windfall (I had way overpaid on my estimated taxes and so don't have to make any more federal estimated tax payments until Q3) to boost my savings.

Given widespread reports of people in the middle class income brackets getting little or no reduction, or even small increases, I conclude that significant tax savings probably kick in somewhere between an annual income of $150K and $200K, depending on other details. That is a graphic illustration of what the Trump tax cuts were really about.

Selfishly, this is great, but I know I'm doing this on the backs of less fortunate folks. Since I'm behind on my retirement due to medical expenses, I'm socking it away, but I am increasing my giving (time and $$) to community services, the poor people's campaign, immigrant welcome and support in my area, and similar -- and giving a fair bit to the Sanders campaign. And I fully expect (and embrace) that if Democrats regain power, that 21% will be rescinded -- as it should be. The rates I was paying before were not onerous, although at times they felt like it because I live in New York and our property taxes are utterly ridiculous (about $11K / year for property and school taxes on a $400K house and lot) which makes any sort of tax relief seem like a dog-send. The property tax situation here is a knock-on effect of widespread government corruption; the state hasn't revenue-shared with counties in a long time now and they've partly made up for that by jacking up property taxes. All the money that would go to the counties is more or less lining the pockets of mobsters in the City.

So the other take-away from this other than a more equitable tax structure is the desperate need to reduce government corruption -- to ACTUALLY "drain the swamp" rather than just claiming to. How that's going to happen unless, like Sanders, you're willing to piss off corporate interests and entrenched politicians, is beyond me.
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The stock market
(08-14-2019, 04:53 PM)Aegon Wrote:
(08-14-2019, 01:46 PM)Free Wrote: About 9 months ago I nicknamed this economy as being "a bubble of false hope" and predicted that by August the bubble would start to burst.

Trump's rhetoric has kept the bubble growing for the past couple years, but the reality is that it can't sustain the facade in the face of reality.

This is going to be bad, folks. Today's DOW plunge might be massive.

The timing of my entry into the economy (just got my first full time salaried career position this year) has made me think... well, instead of setting up any investments right now, why not pour money into my savings and wait to buy a ton of stocks once the market crashes?

We'll see.

From "the inside man": when there's blood flowing in the streets: buy!"
R.I.P. Hannes
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(08-14-2019, 04:53 PM)Aegon Wrote:
(08-14-2019, 01:46 PM)Free Wrote: About 9 months ago I nicknamed this economy as being "a bubble of false hope" and predicted that by August the bubble would start to burst.

Trump's rhetoric has kept the bubble growing for the past couple years, but the reality is that it can't sustain the facade in the face of reality.

This is going to be bad, folks. Today's DOW plunge might be massive.

The timing of my entry into the economy (just got my first full time salaried career position this year) has made me think... well, instead of setting up any investments right now, why not pour money into my savings and wait to buy a ton of stocks once the market crashes?

We'll see.

At the time of this post the DOW was down 660 points, with 50 minutes to go in the session. The last 5 minutes is what I keep my eye on, as either the bears or the bulls make a move. I suspect it will be the bears panicking and we could see it down by 800 points by end of the day.
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The stock market
@realDonaldTrump
38 minutes ago
We are winning, big time, against China. Companies & jobs are fleeing. Prices to us have not gone up, and in some cases, have come down. China is not our problem, though Hong Kong is not helping. Our problem is with the Fed. Raised too much & too fast. Now too slow to cut....

 
@realDonaldTrump
 39 minutes ago
 
..Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!
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(08-14-2019, 07:58 PM)Dom Wrote: @realDonaldTrump
38 minutes ago
We are winning, big time, against China. Companies & jobs are fleeing. Prices to us have not gone up, and in some cases, have come down. China is not our problem, though Hong Kong is not helping. Our problem is with the Fed. Raised too much & too fast. Now too slow to cut....

 
@realDonaldTrump
 39 minutes ago
 
..Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!

Yep, a total idiot. And he says this despite the fact that, as I eerily predicted in my previous post, the DOW fell 800 points.

Trump is a total denialist.
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(08-14-2019, 07:58 PM)Dom Wrote: @realDonaldTrump
38 minutes ago
We are winning, big time, against China. Companies & jobs are fleeing. Prices to us have not gone up, and in some cases, have come down. China is not our problem, though Hong Kong is not helping. Our problem is with the Fed. Raised too much & too fast. Now too slow to cut....

 
@realDonaldTrump
 39 minutes ago
 
..Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!

WTF!?
Leave Germany out of this
Fuckin´loser Dodgy
R.I.P. Hannes
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Quote:Here were the main moves in the market, as of 4:00 p.m. ET:
  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): -2.93%, or 85.72 points
  • Dow (^DJI): -3.05%, or 800.49 points
  • Nasdaq (^IXIC) : -3.02%, or 242.42 points

All his idiot base wants to hear is "we won."
Robert G. Ingersoll : “No man with a sense of humor ever founded a religion.”
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About two weeks ago we took all our stocks out.  Figured things were about due for another Republican recession.  Trump has ridden the Obama economy wave long enough and it's about to flatten out.
                                                         T4618
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Donald J. Trump‏
Verified account
42 minutes ago
 
 
As usual, the Fed did NOTHING! It is incredible that they can “speak” without knowing or asking what I am doing, which will be announced shortly. We have a very strong dollar and a very weak Fed. I will work “brilliantly” with both, and the U.S. will do great...
 
....My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?

----------------------------------------------------------------
 
Donald J. Trump‏
Verified account
48 minutes ago
Our Country has lost, stupidly, Trillions of Dollars with China over many years. They have stolen our Intellectual Property at a rate of Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year, & they want to continue. I won’t let that happen! We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far....

...better off without them. The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP. Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing..

...your companies HOME and making your products in the USA. I will be responding to China’s Tariffs this afternoon. This is a GREAT opportunity for the United States. Also, I am ordering all carriers, including Fed Ex, Amazon, UPS and the Post Office, to SEARCH FOR & REFUSE,.

 ....all deliveries of Fentanyl from China (or anywhere else!). Fentanyl kills 100,000 Americans a year. President Xi said this would stop - it didn’t. Our Economy, because of our gains in the last 2 1/2 years, is MUCH larger than that of China. We will keep it that way!

----------------------------------------



Markets
August 23, 3:25 PM UTC

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
DOW
25,871.10
▼ 381.14 (1.45%)

NASDAQ Composite Index
NASDAQ
7,887.73
▼ 103.66 (1.30%)

S&P 500 Index
S&P 500
2,880.40
▼ 42.55 (1.46%)
[Image: color%5D%5Bcolor=#333333%5D%5Bsize=small%5D%5Bfont=T...ans-Serif%5D]
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(08-13-2019, 09:48 PM)mordant Wrote: A few weeks ago, my wife and I changed our risk tolerance from 9 out of 10 to 4 for the folks that manage our portfolio. I basically told them to pretend that I'm a couple years from retirement -- which for all I know I am perhaps 4 or 5 years away, though it's more likely I'll keep working until I'm in my 70s. When I did my own investing I would generally keep quite a bit of money off the table. I'm probably too conservative for my own good there. But this is the longest bull market in history, is probably artificially propped up politically, and has to have reality catch up with it soon. So we pulled back into more of a wealth preservation mode.

Meantime I've been socking as much $$ as possible into a savings account at an internet bank (2.3% interest on simple savings, plus a set of 12 staggered 12 month CDs at 2.8%) so that I have significant cash that I know is safe from any market collapse.

Term deposit? Yep, pretty  safe, but not the safest. 

I was very lucky. I saw the subprime crisis coming. Moved all of my investment out of property, and the  stock market  , the basis of superannuation investments here. Not huge investments, but significant to me .MY investment adviser wanted me to wait another 3 months.Had I done so, I would have lost  25% of my investmentsI moved all of my money into wholesale cash, which is safer than term deposit . About 5 years ago, I moved what was left into term deposits.

All this was in Australia, and we were hardly effected by the global economic crisis!  We have pretty good banking regulations here. I think (not sure)  sub prime loans would be illegal  here. I suspect this is true because it didn't happen here . Our bankers are as greedy as bankers anywhere. Shown by the  sneaky little charges they try to impose, constantly. ( I challenge them and they are waived) More so the outrageous interest rates on credit cards.---I don't use credit, ever.
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(08-25-2019, 12:22 AM)grympy Wrote:
(08-13-2019, 09:48 PM)mordant Wrote: A few weeks ago, my wife and I changed our risk tolerance from 9 out of 10 to 4 for the folks that manage our portfolio. I basically told them to pretend that I'm a couple years from retirement -- which for all I know I am perhaps 4 or 5 years away, though it's more likely I'll keep working until I'm in my 70s. When I did my own investing I would generally keep quite a bit of money off the table. I'm probably too conservative for my own good there. But this is the longest bull market in history, is probably artificially propped up politically, and has to have reality catch up with it soon. So we pulled back into more of a wealth preservation mode.

Meantime I've been socking as much $$ as possible into a savings account at an internet bank (2.3% interest on simple savings, plus a set of 12 staggered 12 month CDs at 2.8%) so that I have significant cash that I know is safe from any market collapse.

Term deposit? Yep, pretty  safe, but not the safest. 

I was very lucky. I saw the subprime crisis coming. Moved all of my investment out of property, and the  stock market  , the basis of superannuation investments here. Not huge investments, but significant to me .MY investment adviser wanted me to wait another 3 months.Had I done so, I would have lost  25% of my investmentsI moved all of my money into wholesale cash, which is safer than term deposit . About 5 years ago, I moved what was left into term deposits.

All this was in Australia, and we were hardly effected by the global economic crisis!  We have pretty good banking regulations here. I think (not sure)  sub prime loans would be illegal  here. I suspect this is true because it didn't happen here . Our bankers are as greedy as bankers anywhere. Shown by the  sneaky little charges they try to impose, constantly. ( I challenge them and they are waived) More so the outrageous interest rates on credit cards.---I don't use credit, ever.

What exactly do you mean by "wholesale cash" -- money market accounts?

I use credit cards for most of my purchases, but pay them all off every month, so the interest rates are irrelevant to me. I also use cards that provide 1.5% or more cash back.
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