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+--- Thread: Election 2020 - Various Polls (/showthread.php?tid=4484)
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Election 2020 - Various Polls - Cheerful Charlie - 12-12-2019
I from time to time look at various polls dealing with the November 2020 elections and Trump's chances for re-election.
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3645
Quinnipiac poll of October 23, 2019
...
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Men 45% approve
Women 30% approve
Younger voters, 18 - 34 years in age disapprove 61% to 30%. Strangely, ages 65+ disapprove 60% to 38%
...
(45% + 30%) / 2 = 37.5%. Quinnipiac rounds this off tho 38%.
This makes me feel good about chances to dump Trump in 2020.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Phaedrus - 12-12-2019
When it comes to religiously motivated politics, people will often vote against their own best interests.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Cheerful Charlie - 12-12-2019
(12-12-2019, 01:39 AM)Phaedrus Wrote: When it comes to religiously motivated politics, people will often vote against their own best interests.
It is beginning to look like in 2020, most women are done with that. So far, every poll I have seen that examines what women think about Trump, demonstrates that most women will NOT be voting for Trump and do not approve of Trump's performance in office. I find this extremely encouraging.
If women do dump Trump and flip the Senate, the message will be clear, "The GOP cannot kick women in the face wholesale any more". It is going to get real interesting after the GOP gets hit hard by the angry women of America. Fire works to follow.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Thumpalumpacus - 12-12-2019
(12-12-2019, 01:39 AM)Phaedrus Wrote: When it comes to religiously motivated politics, people will often vote against their own best interests.
I'm not convinced Trump's support is based upon religiosity.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Dom - 12-12-2019
(12-12-2019, 05:43 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:(12-12-2019, 01:39 AM)Phaedrus Wrote: When it comes to religiously motivated politics, people will often vote against their own best interests.
I'm not convinced Trump's support is based upon religiosity.
I have a friend who bases it on that. Preacher man said that trump was chosen. She believes.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Dom - 12-12-2019
(12-12-2019, 01:34 AM)Cheerful Charlie Wrote: Strangely, ages 65+ disapprove 60% to 38%
Why strangely? This lumps boomers with the silent generation. The silent generation votes right of center, boomers vote left of center. The silent generation is slowly leaving the voting pool, and a lot of boomers are energized to vote this time.
There is hope. The silent generation won't be around much longer. They are the ones we boomers fought when we were young, paving the way for the rights of gender equality, abortion, ethnic groups, gays, weed and all we started to bring to the forefront in the 70s. The silent generation has been guarding the old "values" all this time. It is time for them to give way.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Cheerful Charlie - 12-12-2019
On the other hand, 10% of Americans are now atheists. And many are Nones, done with organized religion, especially among younger cohorts. Trump's dalliance with toxic Christians such as his spiritual adviser, Paula White, may be repellent to many, including many nominal Christians who do not buy into weird toxic style Christianity. And it's attacks on birth control etc. Not to mention Trump's past ways with women, rape, pussy grabbing and boffing porn stars and paying them off to remain silent about it.
From what I can see from the polls, Trump definitely has a very serious gender gap working against him. If hitching his wagon to the Paula White's of the world is his strategy for re-election, it does not seem to be working outside of his small base of women supporters.
Of course, depending in the out come of March 3, 2020, Super Tuesday, where we get serious about the Democratic challenger to Trump, things might change. And of course impeachment might change things.
If Trump leans into playing the martyr and flaunting his toxic Christian support, it might even repel more voters. He may come to be associated with the crazy Republicans nationwide attacking women's health issues. That effort seems to be galvanizing women and may portend a large womens' turnout on election day.
Stay tuned as this all plays out towards 2020. Only 327 days to go.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Thumpalumpacus - 12-12-2019
(12-12-2019, 11:15 AM)Dom Wrote:(12-12-2019, 05:43 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:(12-12-2019, 01:39 AM)Phaedrus Wrote: When it comes to religiously motivated politics, people will often vote against their own best interests.
I'm not convinced Trump's support is based upon religiosity.
I have a friend who bases it on that. Preacher man said that trump was chosen. She believes.
Okay, I should have written "mainly on religiosity".
I have a friend who supports Trump because he thinks it's the only way to oppose the Illuminati. I don't adduce from that that this is the key of Trump's base.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Dom - 12-12-2019
(12-12-2019, 03:02 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:(12-12-2019, 11:15 AM)Dom Wrote:(12-12-2019, 05:43 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: I'm not convinced Trump's support is based upon religiosity.
I have a friend who bases it on that. Preacher man said that trump was chosen. She believes.
Okay, I should have written "mainly on religiosity".
I have a friend who supports Trump because he thinks it's the only way to oppose the Illuminati. I don't adduce from that that this is the key of Trump's base.
Yeah, he has kind of a rag tag following, drawn from various niches of madness.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Cheerful Charlie - 12-13-2019
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/cynical-voters-may-have-won-trump-the-midwest-but-they-could-now-doom-him-report/
...
‘Cynical’ voters may have won Trump the Midwest — but they could now doom him: report
“As it turns out, while people who liked Trump and didn’t like Clinton voted heavily for Trump (as you’d expect), the current president also had an edge among people who disliked both him and Clinton,” wrote Philip Bump in the Washington Post. “He won those voters by 17 points nationally — and by margins in the closest states that were likely enough to hand him the electoral college victory he needed.” He additionally won “cynical” voters by 37 points in Wisconsin, 25 points in Pennsylvania and 21 points in Michigan — all of which had extremely close final results.
“The split between those who like or don’t like the candidates is remarkably similar to 2016. Trump is the only candidate liked by 36 percent of respondents, same as the percentage of voters three years ago. Biden is the only one liked by 41 percent — the same percentage of exit poll respondents who said the same of Clinton. The group of like-neithers is slightly smaller, at 12 percent,” wrote Bump. However, Quinnipiac now shows that “cynical” voters prefer Biden by 33 points nationally — nearly twice the amount Trump won them by three years ago.
....
Yet another little poll nibbling away at trump's re-election chances. Clinton had years of rabid attacks on her. But now, Trump's activities are not going over well with a lot of people. Trump is his own worst enemy.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - no one - 12-13-2019
Hey, not all politicians are bad.
Some are dead.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Alan V - 12-13-2019
(12-13-2019, 01:17 PM)no one Wrote: Hey, not all politicians are bad.
Some are dead.
Politicians are people. In general, they are no better or worse than anyone else.
Death only improves some people.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - jerryg - 12-13-2019
(12-13-2019, 01:26 PM)Alan V Wrote:(12-13-2019, 01:17 PM)no one Wrote: Hey, not all politicians are bad.
Some are dead.
Politicians are people. In general, they are no better or worse than anyone else.
Death only improves some people.
I think given what it takes to become a sitting politician, they are probably well worse than average.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Alan V - 12-13-2019
(12-13-2019, 04:50 PM)jerryg Wrote:(12-13-2019, 01:26 PM)Alan V Wrote: Politicians are people. In general, they are no better or worse than anyone else.
I think given what it takes to become a sitting politician, they are probably well worse than average.
You mean like a law degree and experience in public service?
Trump had neither and I'm not sure he was an improvement over politicians in general....
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - jerryg - 12-13-2019
(12-13-2019, 05:09 PM)Alan V Wrote:(12-13-2019, 04:50 PM)jerryg Wrote:(12-13-2019, 01:26 PM)Alan V Wrote: Politicians are people. In general, they are no better or worse than anyone else.
I think given what it takes to become a sitting politician, they are probably well worse than average.
You mean like a law degree and experience in public service?
Trump had neither and I'm not sure he was an improvement over politicians in general....
I mean people who are willing to do what it takes to win elections. Same principle likely applies to billionaires.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - jerry mcmasters - 12-14-2019
(12-13-2019, 01:26 PM)Alan V Wrote:(12-13-2019, 01:17 PM)no one Wrote: Hey, not all politicians are bad.
Some are dead.
Politicians are people. In general, they are no better or worse than anyone else.
My suspicion is they skew worse than the average person and better than the average person. The extremes are more extreme. Those that get off on power and manipulation, this is the best playground available. The sincere do-gooder, same.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - mordant - 12-14-2019
(12-12-2019, 05:43 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:(12-12-2019, 01:39 AM)Phaedrus Wrote: When it comes to religiously motivated politics, people will often vote against their own best interests.
I'm not convinced Trump's support is based upon religiosity.
It is not overtly based in conventional religiosity, but to me it's beyond dispute that the religious right (evangelical Christianity) is THE major enabler of Trumpism. If they turned on him, he'd be finished.
There is a school of thought that the cult of personality coalescing around Trump amounts to a religion, in the same sense that it does for Kim Jong Un for example. Many fundamentalists regard Trump as "a modern King Cyrus", a secular leader influenced by god to save god's people. It is hard for me to explain that as not having religious overtones. Indeed, it's hard to explain it as areligious.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Dom - 12-14-2019
(12-14-2019, 02:45 AM)jerry mcmasters Wrote:(12-13-2019, 01:26 PM)Alan V Wrote:(12-13-2019, 01:17 PM)no one Wrote: Hey, not all politicians are bad.
Some are dead.
Politicians are people. In general, they are no better or worse than anyone else.
My suspicion is they skew worse than the average person and better than the average person. The extremes are more extreme. Those that get off on power and manipulation, this is the best playground available. The sincere do-gooder, same.
Yes, look at the examples of Nixon and Bernie to illustrate the extremes. There are a lot of narcissists who shine in the lime light, but narcissism on its own takes many degrees and shapes and is not such a bad thing per se. Narcissists are drawn to public exposure, politics, acting, clergy, but also leaders of social movements and other beneficial, high exposure positions. It's only bad for others when it's malignant.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Dom - 12-14-2019
(12-14-2019, 04:05 AM)mordant Wrote:(12-12-2019, 05:43 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:(12-12-2019, 01:39 AM)Phaedrus Wrote: When it comes to religiously motivated politics, people will often vote against their own best interests.
I'm not convinced Trump's support is based upon religiosity.
It is not overtly based in conventional religiosity, but to me it's beyond dispute that the religious right (evangelical Christianity) is THE major enabler of Trumpism. If they turned on him, he'd be finished.
There is a school of thought that the cult of personality coalescing around Trump amounts to a religion, in the same sense that it does for Kim Jong Un for example. Many fundamentalists regard Trump as "a modern King Cyrus", a secular leader influenced by god to save god's people. It is hard for me to explain that as not having religious overtones. Indeed, it's hard to explain it as areligious.
He does have a hard core, extreme section of supporters who qualify as cultists. But, thankfully, there are not enough of those to get him elected. I think the majority is either duped by the bubble they live in, or motivated by their pocket book.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Cheerful Charlie - 02-06-2020
Here is an interesting poll from AARP. Conducted for AARP by Harris Polls.
https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2019/women-voting-poll.html
...
The Harris Poll conducted the survey for AARP. It’s the first in AARP’s “She’s the Difference” series that will continue through the 2020 election season.
This research proves that “women are coming out,” says Tawny Saez, senior strategist at Harris, who says the response that 95 percent of women age 50 and over plan to vote “is one of the highest I’ve ever seen. Women 50-plus have been an overlooked group you cannot overlook any longer.” According to April, 2019 U.S. Census data, women over the age of 50 comprise 28 percent of all registered voters.
...
69% are undecided.
...
Twenty-six percent of women polled say they skipped medical care because it was too expensive and 14 percent say they went into debt because of high health care costs. Women also believe older Americans are being taken advantage of when it comes to health costs. Nearly 7 in 10 feel older people pay too much for health care compared to others, and 85 percent say people with preexisting conditions should not have to pay more for their health care coverage.
...
Qualities these women want from a leader
39% ethics
36% trust
30% intelligence
...
46% give our nation's leaders a failing grade on high drug costs.
...
Nearly half of 50+ women also think the economy is on the wrong track. 48%
...
65 percent of women have an unfavorable opinion on pharmaceutical companies
...
“Women are the deciders and the CEO of the household,” says LeaMond. “They are making most of the economic decisions and most of the health care decisions.” Of those women polled, 57 percent of women say they prioritize the health of their family over their own and 58 percent report being the sole health care decision-maker in their household.
...
----
Bottom line is that 28% of potential voters find health issue to be rather important to them. Trump and crew's attacks on ACA, Medicare, medicaid, Planned Parenthood, CHIPs and other health programs, plus smirking McConnells obstructionism on such issues is probably going to cost the GOP votes come November.
When Mama ain't happy, nobody is going to be happy.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Minimalist - 02-06-2020
Young people seem to despise Trumpolini.
One has to hope that this time they get off their asses and vote.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Bucky Ball - 02-06-2020
(02-06-2020, 07:00 PM)Cheerful Charlie Wrote: Here is an interesting poll from AARP. Conducted for AARP by Harris Polls.
https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2019/women-voting-poll.html
...
The Harris Poll conducted the survey for AARP. It’s the first in AARP’s “She’s the Difference” series that will continue through the 2020 election season.
This research proves that “women are coming out,” says Tawny Saez, senior strategist at Harris, who says the response that 95 percent of women age 50 and over plan to vote “is one of the highest I’ve ever seen. Women 50-plus have been an overlooked group you cannot overlook any longer.” According to April, 2019 U.S. Census data, women over the age of 50 comprise 28 percent of all registered voters.
...
69% are undecided.
...
Twenty-six percent of women polled say they skipped medical care because it was too expensive and 14 percent say they went into debt because of high health care costs. Women also believe older Americans are being taken advantage of when it comes to health costs. Nearly 7 in 10 feel older people pay too much for health care compared to others, and 85 percent say people with preexisting conditions should not have to pay more for their health care coverage.
...
Qualities these women want from a leader
39% ethics
36% trust
30% intelligence
...
46% give our nation's leaders a failing grade on high drug costs.
...
Nearly half of 50+ women also think the economy is on the wrong track. 48%
...
65 percent of women have an unfavorable opinion on pharmaceutical companies
...
“Women are the deciders and the CEO of the household,” says LeaMond. “They are making most of the economic decisions and most of the health care decisions.” Of those women polled, 57 percent of women say they prioritize the health of their family over their own and 58 percent report being the sole health care decision-maker in their household.
...
----
Bottom line is that 28% of potential voters find health issue to be rather important to them. Trump and crew's attacks on ACA, Medicare, medicaid, Planned Parenthood, CHIPs and other health programs, plus smirking McConnells obstructionism on such issues is probably going to cost the GOP votes come November.
When Mama ain't happy, nobody is going to be happy.
There is a reason that Barr has asked the courts NOT to rule on their request to have the ACA overturned before the election.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/upshot/obamacare-lawsuit-delay-sought-trump-republicans.html
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Cheerful Charlie - 02-06-2020
(02-06-2020, 07:30 PM)Minimalist Wrote: Young people seem to despise Trumpolini.
One has to hope that this time they get off their asses and vote.
In 2018, younger cohorts voted in larger numbers than the Boomers and Silent Generation. That gave the Democrats control of the house. The GOP is in serious trouble with younger voters, who will turn out just like in 2018. Women voters are not happy with the GOP. The independentss are definitely leaning Democratic. In the recent past, the GOP had the votes of the older voters. As AARP's survey demonstrates, the GOP is going to have problems here also. I am suspecting that in the end, we will see a perfect storm that will dump Trump, Moscow Mitch and gives us more Democrats in the House, and probably the Senate.
The GOP is losing the educated suburban women who are abandoning the GOP and as women voters were 52% of the vote in 2018, I suspect that Trump's plans to hack at Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, ACA, CHIPs and more is going to feature prominently in Democratic attack ads.
A big problem in 2016 was many disgruntled voters showing their unhappiness with voting for third parties, Greens, Libertarians, to "send a message". I suspect a lot of these people will be sending a different message after 4 years of Trump and Moscow Mitch and the useless GOP Senate.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Cheerful Charlie - 02-06-2020
https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
Trump Approval Rating
2020 Jan 16-29
Republicans 94 %
Independents 42%
Democrats 7%
2020 Jan 2-15
Republicans 88%
Independents 37%
Democrats 10%
----
About 40% of American voters are Independents.
RE: Election 2020 - Various Polls - Thumpalumpacus - 02-06-2020
(02-06-2020, 07:49 PM)Cheerful Charlie Wrote: A big problem in 2016 was many disgruntled voters showing their unhappiness with voting for third parties, Greens, Libertarians, to "send a message". I suspect a lot of these people will be sending a different message after 4 years of Trump and Moscow Mitch and the useless GOP Senate.
I was one of those people. Living in Texas, where Trump had, by polling, about a 750,000-vote edge, my voting for Johnson in 16 to register disaffection didn't tip any scales. If any Democrat is close to Trump in polling leaning into November 2020, I will pinch my nose and vote Dem. It may not be a vote for the Dem nominee, but rather a vote against Trump. They all seem better than him by a couple of different metrics.
If Trump is running away with Texas, I will vote third-party again.